Assessing climate and spatial drivers of influenza dynamics across temperate and tropical settings - proposal summary/abstract seasonal influenza infections sweep through the united states (US) each…

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases awarded Brown University $100,228 on February 13, 2027, under the Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research program (CFDA 93.855) to assess climate and spatial drivers of influenza dynamics across temperate and tropical settings.

The recipient will develop a multinational dataset integrating spatially- and temporally-resolved influenza surveillance data, environmental variables, and human mobility indicators to evaluate how weather factors shape influenza activity across global sites, estimate influenza transmission as a function of specific humidity and temperature, and quantify the relative contributions of environmental and human mobility factors in shaping influenza epidemics in the United States. The study employs parametric and non-parametric approaches including infectious disease modeling, statistical analysis, and machine learning methods to address unexplained variability in subnational outbreak patterns and improve anticipation of influenza activity for strategic resource allocation and public health preparedness.

Performance occurs in Providence, Rhode Island, with work completion by August 31, 2028.

Assessing climate and spatial drivers of influenza dynamics across temperate and tropical settings - proposal summary/abstract seasonal influenza infections sweep through the united states (US) each year, resulting in upwards of 41 million illnesses, 710,000 hospitalizations due to disease-related complications, and 52,000 deaths annually between 2010 and 2024. Although environmental factors strongly influence influenza seasonality, with low specific humidity driving winter outbreaks in temperate regions and nonlinear interactions between temperature and specific humidity shaping transmission in tropical areas, there remains unexplained variability in subnational outbreak patterns. Population-level factors such as human mobility and density can further influence outbreak timing and magnitude, yet existing approaches rarely integrate these environmental and behavioral drivers into a unified framework. Improving our ability to anticipate influenza activity is essential for strategic resource allocation, early-warning systems, and public health preparedness. This study investigates environmental and population-level drivers of seasonal influenza outbreaks, assessing how the environment and mobility patterns influence epidemic intensity and timing. By leveraging a combination of parametric and non-parametric approaches, including infectious disease modeling, statistical analysis, and machine learning methods, this study consists of three aims: (1) evaluate how weather factors shape influenza activity across a range of temperate and tropical sites globally; (2) estimate influenza transmission as a function of specific humidity and temperature; and, (3) quantify the relative contributions of the environment and human mobility in shaping influenza epidemics in the US. To accomplish these aims, we will compile a novel multinational dataset integrating publicly available, spatially- and temporally-resolved influenza surveillance, environmental data, and human mobility indicators. Findings will uncover how two fundamental forces - weather and human mobility - interact to shape epidemic influenza behavior, generating critical evidence to strengthen outbreak preparedness. This research directly advances niaid's mission to adaptively and appropriately respond to emerging disease threats, deepening our understanding of how and where seasonal influenza epidemics may unfold. By quantifying how the environment and mobility shape outbreak dynamics, this work will inform targeted public health strategies and enhance adaptive preparedness for future outbreaks. Our interdisciplinary team brings deep expertise in infectious disease modeling, machine learning, and public health preparedness, and this project will further support my development as a research scientist dedicated to advancing public health resilience.