F65888S
TO SUPPORT THE FOLLOWING PROJECT OBJECTIVES: O.2 - ANALYZE MID-CENTURY DOE COMPASS-GLM PROJECTIONS TO ASSESS POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, SOCIOECONOMIC COSTS, AND TO EXPLORE POTENTIAL RESILIENCE STRATEGIES O.5 - COMBINE COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC AND PROPERTY VALUE DATA TO DEVELOP AN ECONOMIC LOSS MODEL FOR FLOOD RISKS THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL DISPARITIES IN IMPACT ACROSS COMMUNITIES AND NEIGHBORHOODS IN OUR PILOT WATERSHEDS O.6 - LEVERAGE COMMUNITY CO-CREATED DATA AND KNOWLEDGE ON FLOODING TO CO-PRODUCE ANALYSES, SCENARIOS, AND TOOLS THAT WILL ADDRESS FLOOD RESILIENCE IN 3 MI WATERSHEDS TO AIDE IN INFORMED DECISION MAKING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF EQUITABLE SOLUTIONS THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH THE FOLLOWING TASKS: PRIOR INVESTIGATIONS INTO THE FUTURE SOCIOECONOMIC COSTS OF CHANGES IN FLOOD PROBABILITIES ARE OFTEN ASSESSED AT THE COUNTY OR STATE SCALE (RASHID ET AL., 2023). WHILE INFORMATIVE, THESE STUDIES MAY NOT PROVIDE COMMUNITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR LOCAL PLANNERS TO CONSIDER ADAPTIVE APPROACHES, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, PREVIOUSLY REPORTED RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN FLOOD RISK AND PROPERTY VALUES OFFER CONFLICTING REPORTS. A RECENT SURVEY OF FLOODPLAIN RISK EFFECTS ON PROPERTY VALUES REPORTS THAT THE PRICE IMPACTS RANGE FROM A -75.5% DISCOUNT TO A +61.0% PREMIUM (BELTRAN ET AL., 2018). THESE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRICE EFFECTS ARE DRIVEN BY A MYRIAD OF FACTORS, INCLUDING THE PROPERTY LOCATION, THE AVAILABLE LOCAL AMENITIES (I.E., COASTAL SETTING OR INLAND) (BELTRAN ET AL, 2018), AND THE LENGTH OF TIME ELAPSED FROM A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT (BIN AND POLASKY, 2004; BIN AND LANDRY, 2013). OUR ANALYSIS BEGINS WITH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE PRICE EFFECT FOR FLOOD RISK DESIGNATION IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION (WMU.1). UTILIZING STANDARD FLOODPLAIN STATUS FOR PROPERTIES THAT WERE SOLD IN, AND AROUND, THE FLOODPLAIN BORDER, WE WILL IDENTIFY THE PRICE DISCOUNT (PREMIUM). DURING THIS PROCESS, WE WILL ALSO EXPLORE THE USE OF PROBABILISTIC FLOODPLAIN DATA TO ASSESS WHETHER HOME BUYERS WERE SENSITIVE TO A CONTINUOUS RATHER THAN DISCRETE MEASURE OF RISK. USING HISTORICAL FLOOD EVENTS, SUCH AS THE 2013 GRAND RIVER FLOOD, WE WILL THEN TEST WHETHER PERCEPTIONS OF RISK DIMINISH OVER TIME FOR GREAT LAKES RESIDENTS VIA A DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCE FRAMEWORK (BIN AND LANDRY, 2013) (WMU.2). THIS ASSESSMENT WILL EXPLORE WHETHER FLOOD-RELATED PROPERTY SALES EFFECTS ARE TRANSITORY OR PERMANENT BASED ON THE TEMPORAL IMPACT TO PRICE DISCOUNTS (PREMIUMS). WITH THESE RELATIONSHIPS ESTABLISHED, WE WILL INCORPORATE PROJECTED FLOODPLAIN DESIGNATIONS TO PREDICT CHANGES IN PROPERTY VALUES ARISING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS (WMU.3). WE WILL ALSO UTILIZE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENTS TO COMMENT ON FLOOD-EVENT DAMAGES IN PILOT COMMUNITIES. THERE IS ALSO WIDESPREAD CONCERN ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED DAMAGES AND THE UNEVEN BURDENS AMONG THE POPULATION (RECKIEN ET AL., 2018). TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE ISSUES, OUR ANALYSIS WILL INCORPORATE CONTEMPORANEOUS COMMUNITY SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA TO ASSESS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THESE POTENTIAL LOSSES (GAINS) ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN FLOOD PROBABILITY (WMU.4). WMU.1 - QUANTIFY THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FLOODPLAIN STATUS (AND PROBABILISTIC FLOOD RISK) AND THE PRICE OF PROPERTIES SOLD IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. (YEARS 1Â 2) - IF RISK ASSESSMENT ISSUES ARISE, AUTHOR MAY RELY ON BENEFIT-TRANSFER METHODS. WMU.2 - USING HISTORICAL FLOODS, ASSESS THE IMPACT IN SELECT REGIONS, OF FLOOD PERSISTENCE ON PROPERTY VALUE. (YEARS 1Â 2) WMU.3 - USE PROVIDED DOWNSCALE PROJECTIONS OF CHANGES IN FLOOD RISK TO PREDICT WELFARE CHANGES IN COMMUNITIES WHERE DATA IS AVAILABLE. (YEARS 2Â 3) WMU.4 - ASSESS DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES ACROSS CONTEMPORANEOUS SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA USING CENSUS DATA. (YEARS 2Â 3)
Western Michigan University
Project Grant DESC0025260
$65.6k 11/26/24