Federal Grant Award Summary

Northern Arizona University received a $1,057,729 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Division of Environmental Biology under the Biological Sciences program (CFDA 47.074), effective September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2029. The project focuses on assessing drivers of vegetation change across western U.S. drylands by analyzing multi-year plant species inventory data from national parks to identify which ecosystem types, plant communities, functional groups, and species face particular risk from drought and other environmental changes. The research employs advanced Bayesian statistical and machine learning methodologies to integrate datasets from multiple monitoring networks, addressing longstanding analytical challenges related to heterogeneous sampling methods, sparse data, and detection error that have previously limited region-wide ecological assessments.

The project delivers research outputs addressing key management questions for federal land stewards while advancing statistical integration approaches applicable across long-term ecological monitoring programs. Complementary deliverables include workforce development through student training in advanced data analysis skills and public outreach regarding the ecological role of plant species in national parks. The research ultimately produces region-wide documentation of how individual species responses propagate to plant community dynamics, providing actionable intelligence for conservation and resource management decisions across western dryland ecosystems.