Federal Grant Award Summary

The University of Southern California received a $741,148 CAREER award from the National Science Foundation's Office of Multidisciplinary Activities under the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences program (CFDA 47.075), effective July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2031. This project grant funds research investigating how the human brain determines whether surprising outcomes reflect genuine changes in the world or random noise—a process termed "uncertainty source inference." The research will examine the cognitive and neural mechanisms underlying this judgment, testing the hypothesis that accurate inference requires mental effort shaped by motivation and subject to depletion. The project aims to advance understanding of how humans dissociate between volatility (rapid changes in underlying states) and stochasticity (observational noise), with applications to artificial intelligence system design and psychiatric conditions such as anxiety.

In addition to the core research, the award supports educational activities designed to train the next generation of scientists at the interface of neuroscience and artificial intelligence. The project includes development of new courses at multiple levels and creation of openly shared educational materials to build capacity in this emerging interdisciplinary field. Findings from this research are expected to inform more reliable artificial intelligence systems that currently struggle in uncertain environments and provide quantitative tools for understanding and potentially treating psychiatric conditions characterized by misinterpretation of uncertainty.