Federal Project Grant Award Summary

The National Science Foundation (NSF) Division of Environmental Biology awarded $400,000 under the Biological Sciences program (CFDA 47.074) to The University of Kentucky Research Foundation to conduct a two-year research project (June 1, 2026 – May 31, 2028) assessing the forecast accuracy of population models used in wildlife conservation. The primary deliverables include a comprehensive evaluation of historical population prediction performance using long-term monitoring datasets, development of a publicly available database supporting this analysis, and creation of an evaluation framework applicable to other ecological forecasts. The research will generate empirical evidence regarding the reliability of population viability forecasts—an area with limited direct assessment despite four decades of widespread adoption in natural resource management.

The project will produce actionable guidance for natural resource managers on effective monitoring strategies for threatened and endangered wildlife populations, identify data types and model structures that generate accurate forecasts, and establish protocols for improving extinction risk assessments and management prioritization. Additionally, the award supports workforce development through training of next-generation scientists in population modeling, programming, database development, and artificial intelligence-ready data management—producing research outputs and technical infrastructure for broader use by the scientific community and federal resource management agencies.