Farmland loss threatens agriculture andfood security

The Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture awarded the University of Florida Division of Sponsored Research $591,242 on March 1, 2026, under the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) to document and analyze citrus farmland loss in Florida over the past 15 years.

The project delivers three primary research products: a parcel-level spatial-temporal assessment of citrus land loss using high-resolution geospatial data and big data analytics; an economic model of agricultural land use under multiple stressors including disease and development pressure; and empirical estimates of short- and medium-run impacts of economic drivers on land-use decisions using panel fixed-effects and long-difference statistical approaches. The research integrates satellite imagery, agricultural statistics, land value assessments, and demographic data to enable counterfactual analyses simulating scenarios such as a cure for Huanglongbing disease or the effects of zoning restrictions on farmland preservation. Findings will inform policymakers and stakeholders on strategies to preserve agricultural land and support farmers in Florida and other regions facing similar challenges.

Performance runs from March 1, 2026, through February 28, 2029, with work performed in Gainesville, Florida. The award is classified as a Project Grant under AFRI, which supports research addressing farm bill priority areas including plant health and production, agriculture economics and rural communities, and disaster mitigation.

Florida, once a leading citrus producer, has lost over 40% of its citrus acreage in the past 15 years due tohuanglongbing (HLB) disease and rapid urbanization. This project aims to document parcel-level land use patterns of former citrus lands, analyze the drivers behind citrus farmland lossusing economic and empirical modeling, and provide actionable insights to mitigate this decline. The three primary objectives are: (1) assess parcel-level spatial-temporal patterns of citrus landloss over the past 15 years using high-resolution geospatial data and big data analytics – the firstgranular analysis of such patterns; (2) develop an economic model of agricultural land use undermultiple stressors, including technological shocks and development pressures; and (3)empirically estimate the short- and medium-run impacts of these push and pull factors on landuse decisions using panel fixed-effects and long-difference approaches. We will integrate diversedata sources, including satellite imagery, agricultural statistics, land value assessments, anddemographic information. The models will enable counterfactual analyses, such as simulatingthe impact of a cure for HLB or the effects of zoning restrictions on farmland preservation. This research aligns with program priorities by advancing theories and methods in agriculturaleconomics, specifically in agricultural production and resource use, disaster mitigation, and theeconomic implications of big data. The findings will inform policymakers and stakeholders oneffective strategies to preserve agricultural land, support farmers, and promote sustainablepractices, with implications for other regions and crops facing similar challenges nationwide.