Forests in the southern united states support more than a million jobs, provide essential raw materials to rural economies, and supply a large share of the world's wood products

The Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture awarded Mississippi State University $591,500 on February 15, 2026, under the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (CFDA 10.310) to develop forecasting models and scenario analyses for timber supply and demand in the southern United States.

The project will build machine-learning models that integrate historical data on timber prices, housing markets, forest inventories, and hurricane damages to predict how timber supply and demand may shift over coming years. The work includes analysis of past hurricanes to estimate their effects on timber supply and pricing, long-term scenario planning that explores forest-sector responses under different economic and climate futures, and delivery of user-friendly projections and maps to help landowners, industry leaders, and policymakers manage harvest planning, wood supply, and policy decisions. The research addresses economic uncertainty and climate risks facing southern forest stakeholders, with an explicit focus on improving resilience in rural communities dependent on forestry.

The award runs through February 14, 2030, with place of performance at Mississippi State University, Mississippi.

Sub-recipients and their contributions include Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, which will enhance and deploy the Forest Resource Outlook Model to integrate machine-learning forecasts and hurricane impact analyses, implement stochastic disturbance modeling, and develop scenarios combining socioeconomic pathways with timber outlooks through 2050; University of Georgia Research Foundation, which will supervise graduate-student research on data collection and analysis, literature review, and timber price data collaboration with TimberMart-South; and North Carolina State University, which will advise graduate-student research on hurricane impacts using causal inference approaches and support manuscript preparation and conference presentations for research dissemination.

However, this region is facing major challenges. Timber markets have become increasingly unpredictable due to economic shocks, global supply chain changes, and intense hurricanes that damage millions of acres of forests. These rapid shifts make IT difficult for landowners, mills, and communities to plan for the future. This project addresses a simple but important question: what does the future look like for the southern timber market, and how can forest stakeholders prepare for growing economic and climate risks? Our overarching hypothesis is that by combining modern data tools with long-term scenario planning, we can provide more accurate and actionable information to help the region remain resilient.to answer these questions, the project will use new approaches that translate complex data into clear, practical insights. We will develop computer-based models that can learn from past trends – such as timber prices, housing markets, forest inventories, and hurricane damages – to predict how timber supply and demand may change in the coming years. We will also study past hurricanes to precisely estimate how storms affect timber supply and prices. Finally, we will use a long-term planning model to explore how the forest sector might respond under different economic and climate futures. These approaches will allow US to deliver user-friendly projections, maps, and summaries that help forest landowners, industry leaders, and policymakers make better decisions. The expected outcome of this work is a clearer and more reliable picture of future timber markets, including how severe weather and economic trends may affect rural communities that depend on forestry. By improving forecasts and understanding risks, this project will help landowners plan harvests, mills manage wood supply, and policymakers strengthen the region's forest economy. Ultimately, the information gained will support more resilient rural communities, more stable wood product supply chains, and healthier, well-managed forests across the southern united states.