Project Grant 20226702336735

THE USDA SPENDS >$5 BILLION ANNUALLY ON CONSERVATION TO ENHANCE ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABILITY. THE BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS OF THESE PROGRAMS ON LANDSCAPES AND AQUATIC SYSTEMS (E.G., SOIL RETENTION; NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT DELIVERY; WATER QUALITY) ARE RELATIVELY WELL UNDERSTOOD AND CAN BE MODELED USING READILY AVAILABLE APPROACHES. YET CREDIBLE INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC (AND PARTICULARLY NON-MARKET) BENEFITS IS OFTEN LACKING, PARTICULARLY FOR HETEROGENEOUS CONSERVATION PRACTICES THAT OCCUR OVER LARGE SPATIAL SCALES. USDA AND ITS PARTNERS STRUGGLE TO ESTIMATE NON-MARKET BENEFITS FROM CONSERVATION PROGRAMS THAT AFFECT NATURAL RESOURCES AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ACROSS VARIOUS GEOSPATIAL SCALES. AT LEAST IN CONCEPT, MANY OF THESE BENEFITS CAN BE MEASURED USING ESTIMATES OF HOUSEHOLDS' INDIVIDUAL AND AGGREGATE WILLINGNESS TO PAY (WTP) FOR SPATIALLY EXPLICIT IMPROVEMENTS IN CONSERVATION-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OUTCOMES.AMONG AVAILABLE APPROACHES TO ESTIMATE BENEFITS OF THIS TYPE, ONLY STATED PREFERENCE METHODS (E.G., CHOICE EXPERIMENTS) PROVIDE A VALID MEANS TO MEASURE BOTH USE AND NONUSE VALUES LINKED TO CONSERVATION OUTCOMES (E.G., ECOSYSTEM SERVICE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES DUE TO CONSERVATION PRACTICE IMPLEMENTATION). YET CURRENT STATED-PREFERENCE METHODS ARE CHALLENGED BY THE INDIVIDUALIZED AND SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS WAYS THAT PEOPLE UNDERSTAND, USE AND VALUE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OVER DIFFERENT SPATIAL SCALES, POSING CHALLENGES FOR THE VALIDITY AND CREDIBILITY OF WELFARE ESTIMATION. HOUSEHOLDS' WTP FOR CONSERVATION-RELATED ECOSYSTEM SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS DEPENDS ON OFTEN COMPLEX MULTI-SCALE SPATIAL INTERACTIONS OF (A) ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICE CHANGES, I.E., WHERE THEY OCCUR, AND (B) HOUSEHOLDS' INDIVIDUALIZED PREFERENCES, I.E., WHERE THEY ARE VALUED. ALTHOUGH SUCH INTERACTIONS MAY LEAD TO COMPLEX AND NONLINEAR SPATIAL PATTERNS IN ECONOMIC VALUES, EVEN STATE OF THE ART STATED-PREFERENCE APPROACHES CURRENTLY ESTIMATE WTP USING SIMPLIFIED APPROACHES THAT BELIE THIS SPATIAL COMPLEXITY. FOR EXAMPLE, CURRENT ARCHITECTURE FOR STATED-PREFERENCE BENEFIT ESTIMATION IS POORLY SUITED TO ESTIMATE WTP FOR LARGE-SCALE, SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS CONSERVATION OUTCOMES IN WAYS THAT ACCOMMODATE SPATIAL PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY FOR MANY SMALL-SCALE INTRAREGIONAL CHANGES, WHERE THIS HETEROGENEITY MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO RESPONDENTS' PRIMARY HOMES.RESPONDING TO THIS GAP IN VALUATION METHODS AND PRACTICE, THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP AND EVALUATE NEXT-GENERATION CHOICE-EXPERIMENT ARCHITECTURE DESIGNED TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF VALUATION FOR SPATIALLY EXPLICIT, LARGE-SCALE AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICE OUTCOMES, GROUNDED IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING. THIS REQUIRES COORDINATED INNOVATIONS IN QUESTIONNAIRE ARCHITECTURE, INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT, VALUE ELICITATION AND ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION. THE APPROACH WILL BE GROUNDED IN: (1) A NOVEL, INTERACTIVE PREFERENCE ELICITATION THAT INCREASES RESPONDENTS' ABILITY TO MAKE INFORMED CHOICES OVER SPATIALLY COMPLEX ECOSYSTEM CHANGES, AND (2) INTEGRATED SURVEY ARCHITECTURE AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS THAT ACCOMMODATE REALISTIC AND INDIVIDUALIZED SPATIAL PATTERNS IN WTP, INCLUDING DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS FORMS OF HETEROGENEITY UNRELATED TO A PERSON'S HOME. THESE INTEGRATED METHODS ARE DESIGNED TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES FACED WHEN VALUING LARGE-SCALE CONSERVATION IMPACTS SUBJECT TO SMALL-SCALE BIOPHYSICAL AND PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY. VALUATION SCENARIOS WILL BE INFORMED BY INTEGRATED MODELING OF VALUED CONSERVATION OUTCOMES VIA SWAT/HAWQS (SOIL & WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL / HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY SYSTEM).TO DEVELOP THESE METHODS, THE PROJECT TEAM WILL LEVERAGE ADVANCES IN ONLINE, INTERACTIVE MAP-BASED SURVEY ARCHITECTURE, TOGETHER WITH NOVEL APPROACHES FOR STATED-PREFERENCE SURVEY DESIGN AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS FOR SPATIALLY EXPLICIT WTP ESTIMATION. THE APPROACH WILL BE DEMONSTRATED USING A CASE STUDY OF CONSERVATION AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE STATE OF VIRGINIA AT THE 12-DIGIT HYDROLOGIC UNIT CODE (HUC) SCALE, AGGREGATED TO 8-DIGIT HUC OR LARGER SCALES FOR THE PURPOSE OF ELICITING VALUES. SCENARIOS WILL CONSIDER WATER QUALITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES CHANGES DUE TO AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PRACTICES, WITH THESE BIOPHYSICAL OUTCOMES MODELED USING SWAT/HAWQS. PARTICULAR ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN TO THE CAPACITY OF THE INTEGRATED APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZE DISTRIBUTIONAL ASPECTS OF NON-MARKET VALUES OVER DIFFERENT HOUSEHOLDS AND TO PROVIDE VALID BENEFIT ESTIMATES THAT ACCOMMODATE VARIOUS FORMS OF SPATIAL PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY. THE GOAL IS AN INTEGRATED-ASSESSMENT APPROACH FOR VALUATION THAT PRODUCES VALID WELFARE (OR BENEFIT) ESTIMATES ACROSS VARIOUS SCALES AND ACCOMMODATES INDIVIDUAL SPATIAL PREFERENCES OF EACH HOUSEHOLD, WITHOUT THE RESTRICTIVE ASSUMPTIONS REQUIRED BY CURRENT METHODS.THE METHODS DEVELOPED BY THIS PROJECT WILL PROVIDE A MEANS TO ESTIMATE PER HOUSEHOLD AND AGGREGATE WTP FOR A WIDE ARRAY OF CONSERVATION PROGRAMS AND PRACTICES, CONSIDERING OUTCOMES THAT AFFECT ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ACROSS VARIOUS SPATIAL SCALES. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF BIOPHYSICAL OUTCOMES AND ECONOMIC VALUES--WITH ATTENTION TO VALIDITY IN BOTH NATURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE REALMS--WILL ENHANCE THE CREDIBILITY AND RELEVANCE OF RESULTS. THE RESULTING INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC BENEFITS WILL BE RELEVANT TO APPLICATIONS THAT CHALLENGE CURRENT METHODS. THESE INCLUDE CASES IN WHICH (A) WTP FOR CONSERVATION (E.G., ECOSYSTEM SERVICE) OUTCOMES IS AFFECTED BY SPATIAL PATTERNS ACROSS VARIOUS SCALES, (B) CURRENT STATED-PREFERENCE VALUATION METHODS PROVIDE INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION TO ENABLE RESPONDENTS TO UNDERSTAND ECOSYSTEM-SERVICE OUTCOMES IN AREAS THEY CARE ABOUT, AND/OR (C) VALUES DEPEND ON COMPLEX SPATIAL DIMENSIONS BEYOND THOSE THAT CAN BE CAPTURED VIA COMMONLY APPLIED VALUATION PARADIGMS AND TECHNIQUES. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE VALID, RELIABLE AND CREDIBLE ESTIMATES OF ECONOMIC VALUE LINKED TO AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PRACTICES.ALTHOUGH ILLUSTRATED FOR ONE ILLUSTRATIVE SET OF CONSERVATION PRACTICES AND OUTCOMES IN A SELECTED CASE-STUDY AREA, THESE METHODS WILL BE GENERALIZABLE TO OTHER APPLICATIONS. MOREOVER, BEYOND APPLICATIONS OF THE INTEGRATED MODEL, THE INDIVIDUAL ADVANCES PIONEERED BY THE PROJECT WILL FURTHER EXPAND THE SET OF TOOLS AVAILABLE FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICE VALUATION. THIS WILL FACILITATE VALUATION OF OUTCOMES FROM AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PROGRAMS OVERSEEN BY FEDERAL, STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES, AMONG OTHERS. IN ADDITION TO METHODOLOGICAL BENEFITS, THE PROJECT WILL PROVIDE EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES RELEVANT TO THE BENEFITS OF CONSERVATION IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED. THROUGHOUT THE PROJECT, WE WILL LEVERAGE THE EXPERIENCE OF THE PDS AND ADVISORY BOARD TO ENSURE THAT THE PROPOSED METHODS MEET POLICY NEEDS.