This project aims at demonstrating the uses of advanced explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to utilize existing and high-resolution snow monitoring data to enhance reservoir inflow…

The University of Oklahoma, through its Office of Research Administration, has been awarded a $656,589.32 Cooperative Agreement by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Reclamation under the Snow Water Supply Forecasting Program (CFDA 15.078). The project aims to demonstrate the use of advanced explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to enhance reservoir inflow forecasting for the Upper Colorado River Basin by leveraging existing and high-resolution snow monitoring data. The University will develop a novel deep-learning model to simulate streamflow and reservoir inflows, with the XAI method quantifying the dominance of past snow observations and other hydrological variables in determining forecast uncertainty. The project will validate the AI model results against observed streamflow and the National Weather Service's operational models, in collaboration with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The award period runs from January 3, 2024, to September 30, 2026.

This project aims at demonstrating the uses of advanced explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to utilize existing and high-resolution snow monitoring data to enhance reservoir inflow forecast skills over the upper colorado river basin. A novel deep-learning model will be developed using winter snowpack and snow water equivalent data to simulate the streamflow and reservoir inflows. The novelty of the XAI method lies in its capability to quantify how much dominance of past snow observation in deciding the uncertainty of reservoir inflow forecasting, as well as the impacts from other hydrological variables. The project will validate the AI model results against streamflow observation and the operational snow-17 and sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model used by the national weather service as the status QUO together with our project partner and water forecasting agency beneficiary the colorado basin river forecast center (cbrfc). The project location includes the upper colorado river basin (ucrb) and its six major water supply reservoirs.