Cooperative Agreement NA24OARX431C0059

PURPOSE: THIS PROJECT WILL INTEGRATE NOAA SCIENCE AND SERVICE ASSETS INTO A STRUCTURE THAT CAN ADDRESS QUESTIONS LIKE: WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE IN 2050 IN MY COUNTY? HOW DIFFERENT WILL THAT BE FROM TODAY? AND SHOULD I TRUST WHAT YOURE TELLING ME? STATED FORMALLY, THIS PROJECT WILL PROVIDE CONSISTENT, RELIABLE, AND TRANSPARENT FORWARD-LOOKING CLIMATE INFORMATION, FOCUSING ON THE 30-50 YEAR TIME FRAME, AT SPATIAL SCALES RELEVANT IN DECISION MAKING, CONGRUENT WITH THE NOAA GOAL OF BUILDING A CLIMATE READY NATION. IN MEETING THIS OBJECTIVE, THE PROJECT WILL LEVERAGE RESOURCES FROM ACROSS NOAA, INCLUDING THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI), THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORY (GFDL), THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE, AND THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES LABORATORY (PSL), AS WELL AS TWO NOAA COOPERATIVE INSTITUTES AND TWO NOAA CLIMATE ADAPTATION PARTNERSHIPS / REGIONAL INTEGRATED SCIENCE ASSESSMENTS (CAPS/RISAS). PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND SERVICE DELIVERY WILL BE A MAJOR COMPONENT OF THE OVERALL ENDEAVOR, WHICH WILL LEVERAGE EXISTING INFORMATION AND COLLABORATION STRUCTURES TO GATHER REQUIREMENTS FROM STAKEHOLDERS AND TO INFORM DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES, USING THE SERVICE DELIVERY MODEL OF THE NOAA WATER INITIATIVE AS A GUIDE. THE EMPHASIS WILL BE ON THE DELIVERY OF INFORMATION TO DECISION MAKERS FACING A VARIETY OF RISKS, INCLUDING HEAVY PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE EXTREMES, DROUGHT VARIABILITY, AND COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AN INFRASTRUCTURE CONTEXT. IN ADDRESSING EACH RISK AREA, THE PROJECT WILL EMPLOY GFDLS SEAMLESS SYSTEM FOR PREDICTION AND EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH (SPEAR) AND OTHER LARGE ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITES, INCLUDING AN EVALUATION OF THEIR FIDELITY IN DEPICTING HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS AND THEIR UTILITY IN DEVELOPING NEAR-TERM PROJECTIONS, WITH AN EYE TOWARD DEVELOPING MEANINGFUL ESTIMATES OF UNCERTAINTY. THE END-GOAL IS NOAA TECHNICAL READINESS LEVEL 7 (PROTOTYPE SYSTEM DEMONSTRATION), SOMETIMES KNOWN AS A LITTLE O OPERATIONAL POSTURE. IN PRACTICE, THIS IMPLIES THE CAPABILITY OF DELIVERING CLIMATE PROJECTION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES USING BOTH EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURES AS WELL AS NEW CLOUD-BASED PLATFORMS AND TOOLS. TO OPTIMIZE SERVICE DELIVERY, THE PROJECT WILL COORDINATE WITH OTHER SERVICE PROVIDERS SUCH AS DROUGHT.GOV, HEAT.GOV, NWS FIELD OFFICES, AND THE STATE CLIMATOLOGISTS. THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE IS A PROTOTYPE COLLECTION OF SUSTAINABLE ONLINE TOOLS AND SERVICES THAT ARE RELEVANT AND USEFUL TO A BROAD RANGE OF STAKEHOLDERS MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE. THIS PROJECT WILL ADDRESS THE BROAD SUITE OF REQUIREMENTS IN THE MAPP SOLICITATION. SPECIFICALLY, IT WILL FOCUS ON APPLICATIONS OF MODELING AND PREDICTION SYSTEMS TO CLIMATE IMPACT PROBLEMS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTION AND PROJECTION PRODUCTS, AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TESTING AND TRANSITION OF SYSTEMS AND PRODUCTS TO REAL-TIME OR OPERATIONAL USE. THE PROJECT WILL ALSO ADDRESS CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE (CPO) HIGH-PRIORITY CLIMATE RISK AREAS SUCH AS EXTREME HEAT, HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND COASTAL FLOODING.