Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4590188

This three-year project grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) provides $459,780 to the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science to advance understanding of tropical cyclone intensification dynamics in sheared environments. Specifically, the award supports research using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model and HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) to analyze tropical cyclone energetics, vortex...

This three-year, $405,234 Project Grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will fund research at the University of Colorado Boulder to develop initialization strategies for the Unified Forecast System coupled atmosphere-ocean numerical forecast model. The goal is to improve probabilistic skill scores for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of 2-8 weeks by ensuring initial ensemble perturbations project onto oscillating eigenfunctions of the Koopman and Perron-Frobenius...

This National Science Foundation (NSF) Geosciences program Project Grant award of $381,865 to Colorado State University aims to understand how the predictability of severe weather events, such as tornadoes, hail, and flooding, may change as the climate warms. The research will generate and analyze large datasets of numerical weather model forecasts to assess how the ability to predict severe storms evolves in recent (20th century) versus future (21st century) climate scenarios. This work could...

This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050) provides $205,187 to the Board of Regents of the University of Nebraska to conduct collaborative research on the structure and impacts of quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). The research team will create a new database of QLCS events using advanced weather radar data and machine learning techniques. This database will be analyzed alongside idealized numerical simulations to study the...

This $428,965 Cooperative Agreement awarded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Weather and Air Quality Research program (CFDA 11.459) aims to develop and test a method for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation outlooks for the contiguous United States. The project, led by Utah State University, will apply a new weather regime-Gaussian mixture model (WR-GMM) framework to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's dynamical forecast outputs to produce...

This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will support research by Texas Tech University to investigate the predictability of severe weather events, such as tornadoes, hail, and flooding, under current and future climate conditions. The $380,904 award, effective from September 1, 2023 to August 31, 2026, will involve creating and analyzing large datasets of numerical weather model forecasts to understand how and why the predictability of...

This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050) to Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Inc. in the amount of $374,070 aims to better understand how different types of precipitation in tropical cyclones impact their maximum sustained wind speeds. The 4-year project will use airborne Doppler radar data and numerical weather prediction models to examine how precipitation modes, such as convection and stratiform rain, perturb the kinematic...

This federal Project Grant award of $443,674 from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050) will support research to develop advanced artificial intelligence (AI) models for predicting the initiation and evolution of thunderstorms. The project aims to enable significant breakthroughs in understanding convection initiation dynamics and improving the predictability of hazardous weather events like heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and tornadoes. Key objectives...

This three-year, $846,782 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will fund research to investigate the effect of future climate change on severe convective storms. The awardee, the University of Washington, will combine self-organized maps and idealized storm-scale simulations to examine how severe thunderstorms and tornadoes may change in a warmer climate. Researchers will first use data-based methods with climate model simulations to understand...

This Project Grant award of $529,722.00 from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050) will support research to develop advanced artificial intelligence models to predict the formation and evolution of thunderstorms. The project aims to create a prognostic, diagnostic, and generative deep learning nowcasting tool for convection initiation that can quantify the predictability and uncertainty of these predictions. The research will also seek to discover the physical and...