The cascadia region earthquake science center (crescent)project period: 10 1 2025 through 9 30 2027AWARD purpose: this project targets two research activities: (1) to identify sources of epistemic…

The University of Oregon received a $309,272 Cooperative Agreement from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the Research and Data Collection program (CFDA 15.808), awarded October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2027. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) project delivers two primary research products: (1) development of a systematic validation framework for ground motion models in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) that identifies sources of epistemic uncertainty in velocity structure to inform next-generation, non-ergodic ground motion models (GMMs), and (2) reconstruction of vertical land-level change (VLM) across multiple earthquake cycles at key coastal sites to quantify long-term uplift and subsidence rates at millimeter-scale precision and resolve timing and duration of post-seismic submergence following great earthquakes.

The work is conducted through an integrated team involving the University of Oregon as prime recipient and Virginia Tech as sub-awardee, operating in close coordination with USGS scientists. The ground motion research component leverages numerical simulations from deterministic and stochastic approaches benchmarked against local and regional earthquake recordings to assess model performance. The VLM paleoseismology component employs diatom-based paleogeodesy integrated with high-resolution radiocarbon and geochemical dating techniques to reconstruct coastal land-level changes. These complementary research efforts address critical seismic hazard assessment needs for the Pacific Northwest region.

The cascadia region earthquake science center (crescent)project period: 10 1 2025 through 9 30 2027AWARD purpose: this project targets two research activities: (1) to identify sources of epistemic uncertainty in the velocity structure, to inform the development of next-generation, non-ergodic ground motion models (gmms) for cascadia and (2) reconstruct vertical land-level change (VLM) across multiple earthquake cycles at key coastal sites in the cascadia region, allowing for quantification of long-term rates of uplift and subsidence at millimeter-scale precision and to resolve the timing and duration of post-seismic submergence following great earthquakes in the cascadia subduction zone region.activities and subrecipient activities, to be performed: the work will be conducted by an integrated team at the university of oregon and virginia tech, members of crescent, and in close coordination with USGS scientists.1. Ground motions in the CSZ and validation - UO PI and postdoc will develop a systematic validation framework that leverages numerical ground motion simulations from both deterministic and stochastic approaches. These simulations will be benchmarked against recordings from local and regional earthquakes to assess model performance. The goal is to identify sources of epistemic uncertainty in the velocity structure, to inform the development of next-generation, non-ergodic ground motion models (gmms) for cascadia.2. VLM and paleoseismology - virginia tech PI and postdoc will reconstruct vertical land-level change (VLM) across multiple earthquake cycles at key coastal sites in the cascadia region using diatom-based paleogeodesy integrated with high-resolution radiocarbon and geochemical dating techniques. This approach allows the recipient to quantify long-term rates of uplift and subsidence at millimeter-scale precision and to resolve the timing and duration of postseismic submergence following great earthquakes. These reconstructions provide critical observational constraints on interseismic fault locking and viscoelastic recovery, informing the spatial and temporal evolution of strain accumulation along the megathrust.deliverables and expected outcomes: to enhance, expand, and refine the CVM with direct implications for improving seismic hazard maps and the accuracy of shaking forecasts used in building codes, engineering design, and emergency response planning. To incorporate the resulting paleoseismic VLM reconstructions and chronologies into next generation rupture scenarios and tsunami hazard models, enhancing our ability to forecast coastal impacts and assess long-term risks for infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in cascadia s low-lying coastal zones.intended beneficiary(IES): crescent serves as a regional convening center for cascadia earthquake science, fostering collaboration among academic researchers, government scientists, and community stakeholders. The activities proposed in this cooperative agreement have direct relevance to the geohazards community of practice, including regional planners, state geological surveys, federal and tribal emergency management agencies, and infrastructure operators.