Analysis of long-term mark-recapture dataset for monarch butterflies.project period: 04 02 2025 - 12 31 2026MONARCH butterflies are under consideration for listing under the endangered species act and…

Iowa State University of Science and Technology received a $193,153 Cooperative Agreement award effective April 2, 2025, through December 31, 2026, under the Cooperative Research Units Program (CFDA 15.812) administered by the U.S. Geological Survey. The award supports analysis of long-term mark-recapture data for monarch butterflies to develop hierarchical statistical models estimating survival rates during fall migration to Mexico. As monarch butterflies are under consideration for listing under the Endangered Species Act, this research will provide critical demographic parameter estimates needed by federal and state agencies to predict future population status and establish recovery targets.

The project will deliver at least one peer-reviewed publication and generate reports communicating findings to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, and other state wildlife agencies in the Midwest and Northeast. The award includes a significant educational component, providing postdoctoral training to a recent Ph.D. graduate under the supervision of Dr. Anna Tucker in hierarchical modeling techniques and mark-recapture data analysis methods. No subrecipient activities are specified for this award.

Analysis of long-term mark-recapture dataset for monarch butterflies.project period: 04 02 2025 - 12 31 2026MONARCH butterflies are under consideration for listing under the endangered species act and both state and federal agencies need updated estimates of demographic parameters to predict future status and set recovery targets. This project will use a long-term data set of tagged monarchs to estimate survival during fall migration to mexico to better understand how survival varies across space and time. This work will enhance our understanding of monarch life history and inform conservation planning for this imperiled butterfly at the state, regional, and national levels. Activities to be performed - we will develop a hierarchical model to estimate apparent survival probability from a long-term mark recapture data set collected via the monarch watch program at university of kansas. We are primarily interested in estimating migration survival but may estimate other parameters of interest if data and time allow. Deliverables and expected outcomes we anticipate at least one publication in the peer-reviewed literature from this work. We will also develop reports and communicate results to the U.S. Fish and wildlife service, the iowa department of natural resources, and other state agency partners as requested. Intended beneficiary(IES) -U.S. Fish and wildlife service, iowa department of natural resources, other state wildlife agencies in the midwest and northeast. Subrecipient activities, if known or specified at the time of award -NA description of educational component -these funds will support a postdoctoral researcher who will be supervised by DR. Anna tucker. The selected candidate is graduating with her PH.d. In december 2024 and has demonstrated her aptitude with modeling and quantitative methods but has not worked with mark-recapture data specifically. Through this work she will receive training in fitting hierarchical models to estimate demographic parameters and experience working with a large research team and communicating with state and federal agency partners. The postdoc will also have the opportunity to engage in mentoring and undergraduate teaching, depending on their interests and career goals.