Project period: 7 1 25-6 30 28PROJECT title: hydrodynamics and ML-based modeling of flow through the bear river BAY award purpose:goal of this project is to develop a 3D hydrodynamic model and…

Utah State University received a $277,499.17 Cooperative Agreement from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Research and Data Collection program (CFDA 15.808) awarded July 1, 2025, with completion expected June 30, 2028. The project will develop a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model solving the Navier-Stokes equation and salt transport equations to predict flow through the Bear River Bay outflow into the Great Salt Lake. Additionally, the awardee will create physics-informed machine learning-based models capable of estimating outflow conditions across ranges within USGS measured data parameters, which can be coupled with existing water and salt balance models to support long-term lake management decision-making.

Deliverables include the hydrodynamic model and machine learning applications, synthesis presentations of historical and future case results, a comprehensive final report documenting model development and analysis, and three peer-reviewed journal articles presenting the modeling methodologies and findings. These products will directly benefit the State of Utah and industries dependent on the Great Salt Lake by providing enhanced predictive capabilities for water management operations.

Project period: 7 1 25-6 30 28PROJECT title: hydrodynamics and ML-based modeling of flow through the bear river BAY award purpose:goal of this project is to develop a 3D hydrodynamic model and data-driven models, that canpredict the flow through the bear river BAY outflow into the great salt lake (GSL). This wouldfacilitate development of models that can be coupled with water salt balance models for the GSL, which are used for long-term management of the lake. Activities to be performed:the two main research objectives for the proposal are.objective 1: develop a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model that solves the 3D navierstokes equation and an equation for transport of salt, to develop a physics-based model of the flowthrough the BRB outflow.objective 2: develop physics-informed data-driven models that could estimate the flow at thebrb outflow, for a range of conditions within the range of USGS measured data. These modelswill then be coupled with water salt balance models for the GSL and help inform long-termmanagement practices. Deliverables and expected OUTCOMES1. The hydrodynamic model that predicts the flow through BRB outflow, and machine-learning based models that can be coupled with water salt balance models of the lake.2. Synthesis of the results from the model for historical and futuristic cases, provided as slidesfor ease of access and sharing.3. Final report with all the details of model development, results, and analysis, and three peerreviewed journal articles on the models and the results. Intended beneficiarythe state and people of utah, and all the industries that depend on the GSL will benefit from theeffort.