9 16 24-9 15 25PROJECT title: understanding changes in vegetation dynamics over time and spaceacross the western U.S., sagebrush ecosystems are changing due to a range of natural and anthropogenic…

9 16 24-9 15 25PROJECT title: understanding changes in vegetation dynamics over time and spaceacross the western U.S., sagebrush ecosystems are changing due to a range of natural and anthropogenic causes, including wildfire and annual grass invasion but also vegetation restoration efforts. Restoration of disturbed sites and stressor management is urgently needed in areas that face continuing degradation by several threats. Understanding where and when ecosystems are undergoing changes, and what kinds of actions are suited to each problem or context can support timely and effective management of sagebrush and grassland systems. Managers and practitioners have few tools that are capable of systematically assessing vegetation change at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Multi-scale tools are needed as sagebrush and grassland ecosystems are spatially expansive, yet vegetation conservation and management actions tend to be planned at the local level and take a long time to grow. Analyses and tools that can represent change at local- and landscape-levels, and short- and long-term time horizons are needed to understand the importance and influence of both disturbances and restoration actions. To develop model-based tools to help understand how sagebrush vegetation dynamics are changing over space and time, because of disturbances, natural recovery, and with restoration efforts. These spatial tools could directly inform decisions regarding where and when to plant sagebrush and other vegetation, how to restore IT effectively, and how to manage and treat invasive annual grasses to support sage-grouse conservation and population recovery. Specifically, will use spatial-statistical modeling to evaluate the key drivers and ecological conditions that are associated with new invasions and develop maps of future potential invasion due to climate change and land-use change. To support management agencies in identifying the locations that most benefit from chemical control of invasion, will synthesize existing information describing the ecological conditions associated with effective use of herbicides in areas invaded by invasive annual grasses. To guide the placement of new restoration actions, we will assess structural and functional sagebrush connectivity across the sagebrush biome to identify vegetation restoration opportunities. The results will indicate where sagebrush-associated vegetation is well connected, has lost connection and where connections could be strengthened with vegetation restoration actions. Will use a range of statistical analyses, connectivity models, strategic literature reviews, and GIS tools to conduct this work. The resulting science products are expected to support the U.S. Geological survey, bureau of land management, and state partners in monitoring and evaluating vegetation restoration needs and actions. Developing a better understanding of the nature, drivers, and consequences of vegetation change can help managers anticipate consequences of ecological change, and accept, direct, or resist transitions to alternative states. Assessing spatio-temporal changes in vegetation components such as sagebrush cover and invasive annual grasses, could inform bureau of land management decisions regarding vegetation conservation and restoration efforts, placement of fuel breaks and wildfire suppression areas. In locations with species at risk of decline, vegetation change models could also support habitat recovery and conservation planning for focal wildlife species including the greater sage-grouse.