Project PERIOD8 15 248 14 25PROJECT titleimproving methods and analyses for species distribution models of invasive speciesclimate change and invasive species are two of the leading drivers of plant…

Project PERIOD8 15 248 14 25PROJECT titleimproving methods and analyses for species distribution models of invasive speciesclimate change and invasive species are two of the leading drivers of plant community dynamics around the world and battling invasions can be extremely costly. Invasive plant species in particular are damaging to ecosystems and endangered species. Aggressive proactive management of current invasions and monitoring efforts to identify and control new invaders early is an effective and costefficient way to preserve important ecosystem services. This type of approach relies on knowledge of where species are currently established and where they may cause problems in the future. Recently species distribution models have drastically improved the ability to anticipate current and potential geographic distributions of invasive species. These models can predict the potential habitat of invasive species based on relationships between spatial environmental covariates e.g. temperature precipitation soils topography and large aggregated datasets of species occurrences. Species distribution modeling is rapidly improving based on novel computational and modeling techniques driven by more comprehensive and accurate sets of mapped environmental predictors and an exponential increase in the availability of species occurrence records. Invasive species managers from federal agencies such as the bureau of land management national park service and U.S. Fish and wildlife service commonly rely on species distribution modeling as a method to determine the potential impact of invasive species on ecosystems and assess threats to native species. Delivery of these models and their derived products e.g. maps online tools to federal partners can lead to the discovery and proactive treatment of new populations of problematic plant invaders. Therefore the continued development of species distribution modeling is critical for both scientists and resource managers especially in the study of invasive species. The purpose of this project is to improve species distribution modeling methods and analyses with an emphasis on invasive plant species. The outcomes of this proposed work include research products data and code to help federal agencies and their partners produce and understand the geographic distribution of invasive plant habitat while acknowledging the limits of model predictions. In particular will work to improve existing code related to data production pipelines and decision support frameworks and tools. Will also aid in the development of species distribution modeling software and help address the emerging invasive species threats through quantitative analyses e.g. modeling of emerging invasive threats and risk assessments e.g. horizon scanning. Aim to expand and enhance year 1 work within additional years if funding becomes available to support additional model assessments and research application objectives using the improved invasive species modeling workflows developed during year 1. Our stakeholders and intended beneficiaries will learn of results and recommendations through traditional forums such as scientific conferences and lectures as well as publicly distributed online resources to reach a broader audience.