Project period: 8 1 24-7 31 25PROJECT title: building capacity for hydrologic prediction: forecasting water use for agriculture and economic implications for food systemsagricultural water use and…

Project period: 8 1 24-7 31 25PROJECT title: building capacity for hydrologic prediction: forecasting water use for agriculture and economic implications for food systemsagricultural water use and economic impacts to food systems project plan: project summaryplain language descriptionthe project aims to understand how varying water availability affects agricultural production and local economies. IT explores water availability scenarios and impacts on agricultural decisions, focusing on communities reliant on agriculture under extreme climate conditions. Findings will guide water management and policy decisions to promote sustainable agricultural practices and resilient food systems.activities to be performedthe project will begin with a comprehensive review of current hydro-economic and agro-economic modeling tools to identify their strengths and weaknesses. This state-of-science review will lay the groundwork for developing and evaluating enhanced hydro-economic models that simulate water use under various scenarios. These models will incorporate both socioeconomic and hydrologic data to provide more accurate predictions. The project will also assess the distributional outcomes of different water use scenarios on local economies, examining impacts on agricultural production, employment, and income. Collaboration with academic partners from UC merced and UC davis will be critical, as will engagement with local stakeholders and decision-makers to ensure the research addresses community needs.deliverables and expected outcomesthe project will produce several key deliverables, including technical reports and journal articles that summarize the review of modeling techniques and provide GAP analyses of hydro-economic models. These publications will also present conceptual frameworks for water allocation scenarios.enhanced hydro-economic models, incorporating socioeconomic and hydrologic data, will be developed to simulate and predict water use patterns and economic impacts. Additionally, the project will create tools for better understanding and managing water resources.conceptual frameworks and guidelines will be established to elucidate the distributional outcomes of water use decisions, offering recommendations for integrating socioeconomic factors into water management policies.regular presentations to project managers and stakeholders will keep all parties informed of progress, while workshops will help disseminate findings and gather valuable feedback.intended beneficiariesthe primary beneficiaries of this project are agricultural communities, including farmers and agricultural workers who depend on stable water supplies for irrigation, and local economies that rely on agriculture for employment and income. Policy makers and water managers will also benefit from the project s insights, which will aid in balancing water use among competing needs and improving water resource management.academic and research institutions, such as universities and research centers focused on agricultural and water resource management, will gain valuable data and tools for further study. Students and researchers engaged in hydrology, economics, and agricultural studies will also benefit from the project s findings.subrecipient activitiesuc merced and UC davis will play crucial roles as subrecipients, providing expertise in hydrologic and agricultural modeling. They will collaborate on the development of conceptual frameworks and impact assessments, contributing significantly to the integration of socioeconomic factors into hydro-economic models. By working together, these academic partners will ensure that the project s findings are robust, relevant, and applicable to real-world water management challenges.