Dynamics of algal populations and alteration by extreme hydrologic regimesproject period: 3 25 2024 through 3 24 2027AWARD purpose: the majority of cyanobacteria bloom prediction has focused on the…

The University of Vermont & State Agricultural College received a $499,122 Cooperative Agreement award from the U.S. Geological Survey's Assistance to State Water Resources Research Institutes program (CFDA 15.805) to conduct research on the impact of extreme hydrological events on cyanobacteria blooms in eutrophic lake ecosystems. The project aims to integrate field surveys and ecosystem modeling to comprehensively understand the mechanistic drivers of harmful algal blooms and their response to extreme events at the watershed scale. Key activities include high-frequency monitoring of physical, chemical, and biotic parameters in tributary streams and lake sites, as well as the deployment of a data buoy for continuous monitoring. The research will produce multiple data products, scientific publications, and a public web interface to inform effective management strategies for maintaining the health and sustainability of these aquatic systems. The intended beneficiaries include stakeholders, regulatory agencies, and policymakers involved in water resource protection and management in the Northeast region and beyond.

Activities

The research will integrate field surveys with ecosystem models to comprehensively understand the mechanistic drivers of cyanobacteria blooms and their response to extreme events at a watershed scale. Physical, chemical, and biotic parameters will be measured in 4 tributary streams and 4 in-lake sites over 3 years to predict threshold shifts in community composition and ecosystem function in response to hydrologic disturbance. High frequency monitoring of lake dissolved gases and meteorological parameters will be used to model lake metabolism and gas flux associated with bloom events. The researchers will collect stream discharge data, stream temperature, algae, and macroinvertebrates along eutrophic shelburne pond, VT, and its tributary streams, with additional sampling during and following extreme hydrologic events. A data buoy will be deployed for continuous monitoring of physical and chemical parameters. Water samples will be analyzed for dissolved and total nutrients, biotic stoichiometry, and stable carbon isotopes. Phytoplankton, benthic algae, and macroinvertebrates will be characterized and used to calculate functional and taxonomic diversity metrics. Deliverables and expected outcomes: multiple data products, scientific manuscripts, one MS thesis, and a public web-interface for streaming buoy data. The researchers will gain a comprehensive understanding of eutrophic lake ecosystems and their response to extreme hydrological events through a holistic, watershed scale approach. The project will determine the relative importance of extreme hydrologic events and their sequence (drought, flood) in triggering cyanobacteria blooms and amplifying ecosystem processes. This work will allow US to predict blooms and ecosystem feedbacks under stochastic and extreme environmental conditions. This knowledge will inform effective management strategies for maintaining the health and sustainability of these systems, offering practical recommendations for stakeholders and policymakers in the northeast and beyond.

Intended beneficiaries

This work will engage stakeholders and entities involved in the management and preservation of water ecosystems. Residents and businesses will benefit from improved water quality and a better understanding of risks associated with extreme events and blooms. Regulatory agencies will use the findings to improve decision-making and develop targeted strategies for watershed management. The research will inform policymakers and aid in the development of guidelines for water resource protection. The outputs will be impactful in ecology and hydrology, providing valuable insights that can be scaled to other regions.