Until recently, the bureau of ocean energy management (boem) in the united states carried out the analysis of avian risk collision to proposed offshore wind development using the original offshore…

Until recently, the bureau of ocean energy management (boem) in the united states carried out the analysis of avian risk collision to proposed offshore wind development using the original offshore version of the band model to determine the effects (i.e., no effect, not likely to adversely affect, or adverse effect). Masden (2015) outlined the shortcomings of the band (2012) model, which prevented this research from being publicly transparent or considering underlying uncertainty associated with natural stochasticity in ecological processes. To this end, masden and cook (2016) adapted the band (2012) model to incorporate this uncertainty and migrated the spreadsheet-based band (2012) model to transparent scripts in the r programming language. This was further adapted and enhanced to an r language statistical package (stochlab), which has become the recommended method for collision risk modelling in the UK sector. However, to ensure the longevity of this program to feed into updated methods for use in the united states, further work is required. Recently, FWS and the biodiversity research institute (BRI) created a new collision risk model to better inform offshore wind assessments in the US based on the best available science. The objective was to enhance the collision risk modeling procedure to facilitate effects studies for the three listed species in the atlantic region of the united states: the red knot, piping plover, and roseate tern. This was achieved via three methods: i) enhancing the models transparency regarding collision risk II) starting to consider the cumulative effects of being exposed to several offshore wind leases and III) appropriately accounting for various sources of uncertainty, such as stochasticity, parametric variability, and model uncertainty. These improvements have allowed for this new tool set to be applied by boem for case studies, but going forward will require external review, and maintenance of the underlying collision risk models as developed by caneco ET AL (2022).this proposal is designed to support collaboration with international subject matter to help advance the development of collision risk models that will be applied for offshore wind development in the united states. This proposal will support collaboration with black bawks data science, directed by DR. Grant humphries, a principal developer of stochastic collision risk modeling for offshore windfarms that is currently being used in the united kingdom regulatory process. DR. Humphries will undertake a review of the technical aspects of the U.S. Collision risk model (e.g. the underlying code and mathematical basis for the model) in coordination with the theoretical review provided other international subject matter experts. In addition, DR. Humphries will support key technical development of code and workflows for automating reporting of changes and updates, including assisting development of datasets for unit tests in the model. DR. Humphries will lead on the development and implementation of model sensitivity analyses and work with project collaborators to CO-lead an international working group on collision risk models to help ensure that assessments in the U.S. Are based on the best available science globally.