U.S. Climate variability and predictability project office

The National Science Foundation Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences awarded a $250,000 cooperative agreement to the University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (doing business as National Center For Atmospheric Research, or NCAR) on August 1, 2026, to support the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (US CLIVAR) Project Office under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050).

The Project Office coordinates research efforts to improve long-range weather predictions and preparedness for weather-related extremes including droughts, floods, and winter storms. Coordination activities consist largely of organizing meetings and working groups for researchers addressing weather variations on timescales of weeks to decades, with particular emphasis on the role of oceans in weather variability, including El Niño events. The Project Office works with stakeholders, decision makers, and long-range operational forecasters to communicate research results relevant to those communities. The work is performed in Boulder, Colorado. The period of performance runs from August 1, 2026, through July 31, 2031.

Abstract

This award supports the U.S. Climate variability and predictability (US clivar) project office, which coordinates research efforts to improve long-range weather predictions and help prepare for changes in weather-related extremes including droughts, floods, and winter storms. The coordination efforts of the project office consist largely of organizing meetings and working groups for researchers addressing variations of weather on timescales of weeks to decades. A key emphasis in the topics considered in these activities is the role of the oceans in the variability of weather events, a prime example being the science of EL nino events, which are predictable a year or more in advance and are linked to substantial weather disruptions across the US. Research to improve long-range weather prediction is critical for increasing forecast skill, enabling earlier preparedness for droughts, floods, and winter storms, thereby reducing risks to lives, infrastructure, and the economy, and strengthening resilience. Better predictions of EL nino and its consequences for U.S. Weather require the development of observing systems which can measure currents and temperatures deep below the ocean surface, forecast models which capture the many physical processes through which the ocean influences the overlying atmosphere and vice versa, and better theoretical understanding to guide observations and modeling. Work on EL nino and other ocean-driven forms of weather variability require the coordination of researchers across multiple disciplines, thus the project office's coordination role is central to the advancement of EL nino research. In addition, US clivar activities include efforts to work with stakeholders, decision makers, and long-range operational forecasters to ensure that research results of interest to these communities are effectively communicated. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.