Tracking carbon emissions and removals by time series analysis of the land surface: prototype application in tropical MRV systems compliant with ipcc tier 3 many tropical countries are experiencing…

This federal contract award, with identification number NNX16AP26G, was granted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to Trustees of Boston University, a private university located in Boston, Massachusetts. The contract, valued at $828,715.00, is for a research project titled "Tracking Carbon Emissions and Removals by Time Series Analysis of the Land Surface: Prototype Application in Tropical MRV Systems Compliant with IPCC Tier 3." The goal is to improve modeling of carbon dynamics in areas that have experienced disturbance, such as deforestation and forest degradation, in tropical countries. The research combines time series analysis of land surface changes with a spatially and temporally explicit carbon bookkeeping approach. Prototype applications will be implemented in Colombia and Cambodia. This contract is not associated with any set-aside program and has an ultimate completion date of August 31, 2021.

Tracking carbon emissions and removals by time series analysis of the land surface: prototype application in tropical MRV systems compliant with ipcc tier 3 many tropical countries are experiencing high rates of forest disturbance with of cycles of degradation, cultivation and recovery, but neither the activities nor the terrestrial carbon dynamics associated with the activities are properly tracked in existing redd+ related measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) systems. This situation is especially true for post-disturbance landscapes and degraded forests, as the trajectories of the land surface activities and carbon dynamics following disturbance are gradual in nature and inherently difficult to monitor. We propose to improve modeling of the carbon dynamics of areas that have experienced disturbance by combining a time series-based approach for monitoring changes on the land surface with a spatially and temporally explicit carbon bookkeeping approach. We have developed algorithms that track the land surface by analyzing time series of all available observations from the landsat sensors complemented by data from space-borne radar instruments and other optical sensors. Implementations are currently underway across the united states and the colombian amazon. Additionally, we have developed open source software tools and educational materials that provide detailed hands-on instructions in support of capacity building efforts in collaboration with silvacarbon. We propose a novel framework for estimation of carbon emissions and removals by including detailed information on the fate of the landscape. We will modify a recently developed bookkeeping model so that IT runs at the pixel-level (spatially explicit) by directly integrating the results of time series information on conversion between land categories and forest degradation. The characterization of post-disturbance tropical landscapes is critical for accurate accounting of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes because of the high productivity and carbon density of forests in this region. Therefore, in addition to the time series analysis of the land surface, the temporal dynamics of vegetation structure and recovery following disturbance will be investigated using existing space-borne lidar data in combination with data from upcoming NASA lidar missions. Following best practices protocols for statistical inference of change in area and carbon emissions, unbiased estimates with the uncertainty quantified in the form of confidence intervals will be constructed. Prototype applications of the proposed methodology will be implemented in colombia and cambodia, two tropical countries representing different levels of capacity and different types of forest disturbance. A silvacarbon effort is underway to complete a comprehensive time series-based analysis of the conversions between the land categories and post-disturbance landscapes across the colombian amazon that will be used together with a set of existing field measurements of biomass in a prototype application of the proposed methodology. The methodology will be implemented in cambodia, where field-measured data on biomass are scarcer, capacity needs greater and the rate of deforestation and forest degradation higher. Engagement with stakeholders and countries will be enhanced by collaboration with in-country silvacarbon activities focused on enhancing and supporting systems of MRV for redd+ activities (including the provision of input for designing field measurement programs). In addition, a spatially and temporally explicit model for estimating the carbon dynamics related to land surface activities will be added to the open source suite of software to provide a more complete framework for the enhancement of MRV systems in the tropics.