Applying NASA satellite precipitation products to global fire prediction: assimilating gpcp, trmm and GPM into the global fire weather database fire prediction involves estimating 1) moisture…

This federal contract award with ID NNX16AE37G was made by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to The Trustees of Columbia University in the City of New York, operating as Columbia University through its Sponsored Projects Administration Division. The $112,859.63 grant is for research to assimilate satellite precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) into the calculation of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and its sub-components. The goal is to compare the satellite precipitation-based FWI calculations to those based on conventional gauge estimates and determine the extent to which these approaches can separate areas and periods of low and high fire activity. This work is part of the ongoing development and application of the Global Fire Weather Database (GFWED), which uses satellite data to support fire prediction research and management globally. The contract does not have a set-aside designation.

Applying NASA satellite precipitation products to global fire prediction: assimilating gpcp, trmm and GPM into the global fire weather database fire prediction involves estimating 1) moisture content of different classes of fuels in response to changing weather conditions, and 2) potential fire behavior if a fire were to start. In that regard, the fire weather index (FWI) system is the most commonly used fire prediction system in the world. The FWI system has proven flexible enough for adoption in all of the worlds fire environments. Because of its wide application and modest input requirements, IT forms the basis for the gofc-gold global early warning system for wildland fires and the jrcs global wildfire information system. To support FWI-based research and management, we have developed the global fire weather database (gfwed, http:// data.giss.NASA.GOV/impacts/gfwed/). IT uses measurements of daily precipitation, and surface temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. IT currently uses only global gauge-based estimates of precipitation and merra estimates of the other input parameters. Incorporation of GPM and trmm precipitation estimates would represent a significant advance to the development of gfwed. The objectives of this proposal are to: - assimilate gpcp, trmm and GPM precipitation estimates into the calculation of the fire weather index and its sub-components. - compare the satellite precipitation-based FWI calculations to those based on conventional calculations from gauge estimates. - determine the extent to which these approaches can separate areas and periods of low and high fire activity. We will add the functionality to calculate FWI system components from satellite precipitation estimates in the gfwed development framework. We will compare the different FWI calculations over representative fire-prone regions where fire is known to be fuelmoisture limited and where trmm and GPM estimates exist. Candidate regions are the brazilian mato grosso, east-central africa, the upper mekong, western indonesia, southeast australia, southern europe, and the western US. Finally, we will compare the relationships between regional fire activity and FWI system components computed conventionally and from satellite precipitation estimates. For fire activity, modis active fires and global fire emissions database (gfed) estimates will be our starting point, supplemented by data from viirs, severi and the anticipated slstr. Gfwed is the first community dataset of its kind and the response has been very positive. The data is available through the NASA center for climate simulation dataportal, the columbia university international research institute for climate and society (IRI) data library. Different groups worldwide are now using IT to understand fire weather controls on fire occurrence, large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, for calibration of prognostic fire prediction models, and for interpretation of the gofcgold and JRC global fire prediction systems. As an important application of nasas satellite-based precipitation estimates, fire prediction lies at the intersection of the water and carbon cycles. NASA earth observations of fire activity, land cover change, and atmospheric composition are central to understanding the role of fire in the earth system. Continuing with that heritage, the perceived significance of our proposed work is that the community will benefit from any improvement in gfwed that results from assimilating NASA satellite precipitation data. This is a companion proposal to one recently submitted to NASA roses NNH15ZDA001N-susmap called global fire prediction: assimilating smap soil moisture retrievals into the merra-based global fire weather database. The proposed work is separate, but much of the background material is taken from that proposal. Both proposals are part of an effort to continue gfwed development and application, making use of the cutting edge in satellite DA