The cloud-radiation feedback is believed to be one of the critical reasons for the amplification of arctic warming among all climate components. As the accelerated arctic sea ICE decline has been…

This is a $90,000.00 grant awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to the University of Arizona to study the role of springtime cloud-radiation feedback in modulating Arctic sea ice change. The research aims to investigate the dynamical triggers of initial sea ice melting and the spatial and temporal characteristics of cloud and radiation accompanying the melt, with the ultimate goal of proposing and testing a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism that works across interannual timescales. The grant is in response to NASA's Earth Sciences program, which focuses on improving the ability to predict climate change through better understanding of the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice interactions. This grant does not have a set-aside designation. The University of Arizona, as a state government entity, 1862 land grant institution, and Hispanic Serving Institution, has extensive capabilities in scientific research, data analysis, and educational programming that it leverages to support federal agency missions through both contracts and grants.

The cloud-radiation feedback is believed to be one of the critical reasons for the amplification of arctic warming among all climate components. As the accelerated arctic sea ICE decline has been proven by satellite retrievals in past few decades, this study will investigate the role of springtime (march-june) cloud-radiation feedback in modulating seasonal-to-inter-annual scale arctic sea ICE change utilizing NASA satellite observations, merra-2 datasets, and ncar community earth system model (cesm) simulations. This proposed research is in response to the announcement of NASA NESSF2018 earth sciences program, to address one of the long-term goals "improve the ability to predict climate changes by better understanding the roles and interactions of the ocean, atmosphere, land, and ICE in the climate system (climate variability and change)". To achieve our goal, the first step is to identify the dynamical triggers of initial sea ICE melting in the arctic, and then investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of cloud and radiation accompanying the melt of arctic sea ICE in spring and summer. The ultimate goal is to propose and fully test a cloudradiation feedback mechanism that works across inter-annual timescales through an integrative analysis of satellite observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. Based on previous findings, we propose the following hypotheses regarding a mechanism of the arctic cloud-radiation-sea ICE feedback: increasing springtime cloud and net surface radiation tends to enhance september sea ICE retreat, leaving more open seas therefore higher atmospheric moisture content and more clouds in the following spring. This process will effectively create a positive feedback loop that potentially accelerates sea ICE decline across inter-annual time scales, which will be tested through online suppression experiments using ncar cesm. The deep understanding of cloud-radiation-sea ICE feedback will not only help US better predict the global state of climate but will also have significant impacts on local communities in the arctic regions, including tourism businesses, marine transport operations, and resource extraction operations.