NRA: NNH07ZEA001N-HYP1. Proposal: 07-HYP-0083. Entitled: uncertainty quantification and propagation methods and tools for system-level analysis. Background: the goal of this project is to develop an…

NRA: NNH07ZEA001N-HYP1. Proposal: 07-HYP-0083. Entitled: uncertainty quantification and propagation methods and tools for system-level analysis. Background: the goal of this project is to develop an improved uncertainty analysis capability for hypersonic vehicles, including new methods for rapidly RE-assessing hypersonic vehicle uncertainty after an initial detailed analysis. This study supports key milestones HYP.4.02.10 and HYP.4.01.13 of the hypersonics project under the NASA fundamental aeronautics program. Scope of work: this effort is divided into two phases. The focus of the first phase is the analysis of the system uncertainty of a full hypersonic vehicle analysis. A description of uncertainty sources and an uncertainty analysis integration plan will be developed and implemented on an example hypersonic system study. In the second phase, the data and analysis modules developed in the first phase will be used to generate new methods of rapidly reassessing system uncertainty given change in uncertainty assumptions. The effectiveness of these rapid RE-analysis methods will be assessed on representative test problem. Applicable documents/background: (a) NASA research announcement (NRA) NNH07ZEA001N-HYP1. Description of tasks/technical requirements: the contractor shall perform the following tasks: task 1.0 uncertainty analysis 1.1 uncertainty sources. The contractor shall develop a description of uncertainty sources for a detailed hypersonic system analysis, including uncertainty variables, levels and derivation methodology. Categories of uncertainty sources shall include aerodynamics, propulsion, navigation, actuators, weights, atmosphere, cost, and operations. This description shall be developed through consultation with subject matter experts from NASA. A telecon shall be held to review the resulting description with NASA (see SOW 3.3). 1.2 uncertainty analysis plan 1.2.1 the contractor shall develop an uncertainty analysis plan for a hypersonic vehicle. This plan shall include modular uncertainty analysis algorithms separate from the basic vehicle analyses (i.e., performance, cost, reliability, and operability). 1.2.2 the contactor shall develop an analysis integration plan with detailed analysis flows. A telecon shall be held with NASA to review the uncertainty analysis plan (task 1.2.1) and the analysis integration plan (see SOW 3.4). The mutually agreed upon plans shall be approved in writing (via e-mail) by the NASA cotr. 1.3 uncertainty analysis implementation 1.3.1 the contractor shall develop prototype software for the implementation of the uncertainty sources and analysis plans of tasks 1.1 and 1.2 on an example hypersonic vehicle system study. A telecon shall be held to review the example system and analysis tools to be used in the study with NASA (see SOW 3.5),shall be mutually agreed upon by NASA and the contractor, and approved in writing (via e-mail) by the NASA cotr. 1.3.2 the contactor shall deliver the prototype uncertainty analysis software developed under task 1.3.1 along with documentation describing the methodology implemented in the software, the limitations of the software, and input and output parameters. (attachment 3, item 1) task 2.0 rapid RE-analysis 2.1 generation of candidate methods for rapid RE-analysis the contractor shall develop between three and six candidate methods to rapidly assess the system impact of reductions in specific uncertainty variables due to improved analysis knowledge. The results of task 1.3 shall be screened to determine the drivers of system uncertainty to guide the development of the candidate methods. A telecon shall be held with NASA to review the screening results and candidate methods (see SOW 3.6). Three candidate methods to be tested shall be mutually agreed upon by NASA and the contractor and approved in writing (via e-mail) by the NASA cotr. 2.2 rapid RE-analysis testing 2.2.1 the contractor shall t