The proposed research combines geospatial data products derived from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing (RS) data with targeted field observations and modeling in order to quantify ecosystem…

This federal contract award, valued at $883,809.00, was granted to the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The contract aims to quantify methane emissions associated with permafrost thaw in thousands of Alaskan and Northwest Canadian lakes using a combination of geospatial data, field observations, and modeling. This research contributes to NASA's Terrestrial Ecology program and the North American Carbon Program's efforts to understand and predict changes in North American carbon pools. The contract does not have a set-aside designation, reflecting UAF's status as a public university. The work leverages UAF's expertise in Arctic and sub-Arctic studies, climate science, and natural resource management, as well as its specialized facilities and equipment.

The proposed research combines geospatial data products derived from airborne and spaceborne remote sensing (RS) data with targeted field observations and modeling in order to quantify ecosystem responses to arctic and boreal environmental change. Specifically, we will quantify methane (CH4) ebullition (bubbling) emissions associated with 60 years of permafrost thaw in thousands of alaskan and NW canadian lakes by direct observation with RS systems. Our objective is to develop regional, multi scale and multi temporal maps of western north america's boreal and arctic lake area change and associated CH4 ebullition emissions using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), high resolution optical RS, field work, and numerical and GIS modeling in order to improve our understanding of the vulnerability and resilience of lake ecosystems to permafrost thaw with respect to the release of 14C depleted (old) CH4 carbon from decomposition of permafrost soil organic carbon(SOC). We will expand upon our predecessor NASA funded projects NNX08AJ37G and NNX11AH20G which developed statistically significant models using SAR, optical and infrared RS data to detect and quantify CH4 ebullition emissions at intra whole and regional lake scales. We also established a relationship between observed CH4 ebullition and average annual SOC inputs to a handful of alaskan lakes via thermokarst margin expansion during recent decades using field data, radiocarbon dating and modeling. Our next goals are to (i) quantify CH4 ebullition in thousands of thermokarst affected lakes in alaska and NW canada, spanning a range of climate, arctic boreal, permafrost SOC (e.g. yedoma non yedoma) and lake change regimes using established and cross validated relationships between SAR and optical RS signals and field observed CH4 ebullition (II) formulate a mathematical relationship between SOC inputs to lakes during the past 60 years and field and RS observed CH4 emissions; and (III) as a stretch goal, invert the relationship in (II) to produce experimental maps of permafrost SOC stocks, which are vulnerable to CH4 production upon thaw. This multi scale project will include (1) collection of new and synthesis of existing field data on CH4 ebullition, thaw bulbs and SOC (2) analysis of existing data from aerial surveys, SAR and optical RS of CH4 in lake ICE (3) orthorectification of historic aerial photos for comparison to high resolution satellite imagery to produce fine scale regional maps of lake area change, (4) model estimations of permafrost SOC quantities eroded into lakes (5) radiocarbon dating CH4 and SOC, (6) GIS modeling to produce multi temporal regional maps of historic lake area change, associated CH4 emissions, and permafrost SOC stocks (7) outreach to stakeholders at alaska village and rural community field sites and (8) participation in above science team (ST) meetings and workshops. Anticipated results include process level data to aid understanding the effects of lake area change on regional lake CH4 ebullition emissions across diverse permafrost SOC regimes. We will also produce experimental high resolution regional maps of estimated permafrost SOC stocks that are vulnerable to CH4 production and ebullition emission upon thaw. Other ancillary data products will include time series of geocoded (ortho type) remote sensing products from SAR and optical sensors as well as time series of lake boundary data for extended areas of the above study domain (historical hydro). Data and maps will be staged to the above science cloud (ASC) for use by other above ST members, the cceo and policy makers who communicate with stakeholders, and partnering programs, such as the does ngee. Project goals will meet shared objectives of nasas terrestrial ecology research and the north american carbon program (nacp) for understanding and predicting changes in north american c pools (e.g. permafroststored c converted to CH4 in thermokarst lakes).