We propose to investigate the role of vegetation dynamics across the above study domain, building upon our extensive prior work documenting changes in arctic and boreal vegetation productivity over…

This is a Cooperative Agreement awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Shared Services Center to the Woodwell Climate Research Center Inc., a non-profit research organization, for a project titled "Mapping and Modeling Attributes of an Arctic - Boreal Biome Shift: Resource Management Implications." The award is valued at $256,261.07 and runs from August 19, 2015 to January 30, 2017.

The project aims to investigate vegetation dynamics and their impacts across the Arctic and boreal regions, building on the organization's prior work using satellite data, field measurements, and ecosystem modeling. Key objectives include exploring evidence for an Arctic-boreal biome shift, mapping changes in forest productivity and tree mortality, and analyzing impacts on wildlife habitat. The research will leverage expertise in remote sensing, vegetation monitoring, and forest demography modeling. This work aligns with NASA's Ecosystems Dynamics science objectives and supports understanding of how environmental changes affect critical ecosystem services. The contract does not involve any set-aside designations.

We propose to investigate the role of vegetation dynamics across the above study domain, building upon our extensive prior work documenting changes in arctic and boreal vegetation productivity over the past three decades using moderate and coarse resolution satellite data and related field measurements. We will expand past activities with the most recent satellite data sets as well as newer, higher resolution satellite data products and existing aircraft lidar and hyperspectral data (in anticipation of future aircraft campaigns for above). These analyses will be coupled with extensive field measurements and species-specific modeling to capture areas of documented boreal biome tree mortality and tundra vegetation changes across regional climate and environmental gradients. Our investigations will be in the context of exploring multiple lines of evidence for the progression of an arctic boreal biome shift, where tree productivity decreases and mortality increases in the southern boreal while suitability for range expansion and densification of woody vegetation (e.g. shrubs) increases in the northern boreal and arctic tundra. The investigative team has worked extensively on these topics and can leverage existing resources, focusing on aspects of boreal forest dynamics that make them particularly vulnerable to productivity declines and tree mortality, mapping those with multi-scale satellite imagery and modeling these processes using GAP and forest demography models with a long history of well-developed capabilities. We will also conduct more detailed regional analyses focused on faunal habitat changes associated with vegetation composition and structure changes in both biomes, with a focus on areas of interior alaska and western canada (boreal biome), and the seward peninsula and north slope of alaska and northwestern canada (tundra biome). These regions include the winter range of the declining western arctic caribou herd as well as the forty mile caribou herd historical range extending from the yukon river north of fairbanks to near whitehorse. Thus the proposed activity focuses on some of the largest issues of concern to management agencies in the region. A substantial contingent of the team has unique insights into these land and wildlife management issues, as well as the fine scale heterogeneity of vegetation pattern and process that provides a solid basis for calibration and validation of maps derived from satellite imagery, and thus the means to scale from field site to landscapes. Other members of our interdisciplinary team have considerable complementary expertise in remote sensing and in situ vegetation mensuration for mapping and monitoring vegetation dynamics, forest demography process modeling, and other relevant experience in arctic and boreal landscapes. The PI is also applying to be science team lead. Our proposed activity addresses the tier 2 science objective for above focused on ecosystem dynamics, specifically Q5. Determine the causes of greening and browning trends and their impacts on ecosystem form and function. IT also has direct relevance to Q7. Determine how the spatial and temporal dynamics in both faunal abundance and characteristics of fish and wildlife habitat CO-vary across gradients of climate and disturbance. The proposed activity will also establish a firm basis for addressing the overarching above phase 2 objective focused on ecosystem services, specifically Q4. Analyze how changes to natural and cultural resources will impact local communities as well as influence land management policies and practices, and Q6. Determine the degree to which changing environment and altered human activities result in synergistic or antagonistic changes in ecosystem services. Finally, the activity will address several of the above science questions, particularly 3.1 how are environmental changes affecting critical ecosystem services., and 3.5 how are flora and fauna responding to changes.?