Mapping and modeling attributes of an arctic boreal biome shift: resource management implications within the above domain we propose to investigate the role of vegetation dynamics across the above…

This is a $133,085 cooperative agreement awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to Northern Arizona University (NAU) to conduct research on the impacts of an Arctic-Boreal biome shift on ecosystem dynamics and resource management. The research will leverage satellite data, airborne sensors, and field measurements to map and model changes in vegetation productivity, tree mortality, and habitat suitability across the boreal forest and tundra regions of Alaska and western Canada. The findings are intended to provide insights relevant to managing natural resources and wildlife, such as the decline of the Western Arctic and Fortymile caribou herds. This award is not associated with a set-aside program. NAU is a public research university that has extensive expertise in environmental sciences, remote sensing, and federal contracting work, including with NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Indian Health Service, and the Department of Defense.

Mapping and modeling attributes of an arctic boreal biome shift: resource management implications within the above domain we propose to investigate the role of vegetation dynamics across the above study domain, building upon our extensive prior work documenting changes in arctic and boreal vegetation productivity over the past three decades using moderate and coarse resolution satellite data and related field measurements. We will expand past activities with the most recent satellite data sets as well as newer, higher resolution satellite data products and existing aircraft lidar and hyperspectral data (in anticipation of future aircraft campaigns for above). These analyses will be coupled with extensive field measurements and species-specific modeling to capture areas of documented boreal biome tree mortality and tundra vegetation changes across regional climate and environmental gradients. Our investigations will be in the context of exploring multiple lines of evidence for the progression of an arctic boreal biome shift, where tree productivity decreases and mortality increases in the southern boreal while suitability for range expansion and densification of woody vegetation (e.g. shrubs) increases in the northern boreal and arctic tundra. The investigative team has worked extensively on these topics and can leverage existing resources, focusing on aspects of boreal forest dynamics that make them particularly vulnerable to productivity declines and tree mortality, mapping those with multi-scale satellite imagery and modeling these processes using GAP and forest demography models with a long history of well developed capabilities. We will also conduct more detailed regional analyses focused on faunal habitat changes associated with vegetation composition and structure changes in both biomes, with a focus on areas of interior alaska and western canada (boreal biome), and the seward peninsula and north slope of alaska and northwestern canada (tundra biome). These regions include the winter range of the declining western arctic caribou herd as well as the fortymile caribou herd historical range extending from the yukon river north of fairbanks to near whitehorse. Thus the proposed activity focuses on some of the largest issues of concern to management agencies in the region. A substantial contingent of the team has unique insights into these land and wildlife management issues, as well as the fine scale heterogeneity of vegetation pattern and process that provides a solid basis for calibration and validation of maps derived from satellite imagery, and thus the means to scale from field site to landscapes. Other members of our interdisciplinary team have considerable complementary expertise in remote sensing and in situ vegetation mensuration for mapping and monitoring vegetation dynamics, forest demography process modeling, and other relevant experience in arctic and boreal landscapes. PI goetz is also applying to be science team lead. Our proposed activity addresses the tier 2 science objective for above focused on ecosystem dynamics, specifically Q5 determine the causes of greening and browning trends and their impacts on ecosystem form and function. IT also has direct relevance to Q7 determine how the spatial and temporal dynamics in both faunal abundance and characteristics of fish and wildlife habitat CO-vary across gradients of climate and disturbance. The proposed activity will also establish a firm basis for addressing the overarching above phase 2 objective focused on ecosystem services, specifically Q4 analyze how changes to natural and cultural resources will impact local communities as well as influence land management policies and practices and Q6 determine the degree to which changing environment and altered human activities result in synergistic or antagonistic changes in ecosystem services. Finally, the activity will address several of the above science questions, particularly 3.1 how are environment