Draft_Statement_of_Work.pdf

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for Determining Rates for the Atlantic Outer

Continental Shelf (OCS)

ABSTRACT

This study will examine the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s (BOEM’s) Atlantic OCS planning areas to predict and validate the most applicable methodologies for determining oil spill occurrence rates. The study will provide oil spill occurrence rates for various spill sizes as a result of exploration, development, production, and transportation activities on the Atlantic OCS, as an enhancement to those extrapolated solely from historical oil spill data. These estimated rates will provide support to BOEM’s oil spill modeling program, which provides probabilistic estimates of oil spill occurrence and contact with onshore and offshore environmental and socioeconomic resources. This information is critical for producing reliable environmental analyses during National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) document preparation.

SECTION C

DRAFT DESCRIPTION/SPECIFICATIONS/STATEMENT OF WORK

Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for Determining Rates for the Atlantic OCS

C.1 PURPOSE

Because sufficient data on offshore oil spills in the Atlantic OCS do not exist, this study will develop alternative methodologies for determining oil spill occurrence rates (“occurrence rates”) of appropriate size ranges for activities conducted as a result of oil and gas lease sales in

BOEM’s Atlantic OCS Planning Areas. Spill occurrence rates for federal offshore waters have previously been estimated, including their variability, and this information should inform the results requested here.

C.2 BACKGROUND

In 1953, the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lands Act (67 Stat. 462) established Federal jurisdiction over the submerged lands of the continental shelf seaward of State boundaries. The

Act charged the Secretary of the Interior with the responsibility for administering minerals exploration and development of the OCS. It also empowered the Secretary to formulate regulations so that the provisions of the Act might be met. The OCS Lands Act (OCSLA)

Amendments of 1978 (92 Stat. 629) established a policy for the management of oil and natural gas in the OCS and for protection of the marine and coastal environments. The amendments authorize the Secretary of the Interior to conduct studies in areas or regions of sales to ascertain the “environmental impacts on the marine and coastal environments of the outer Continental

Shelf and the coastal areas which may be affected by oil and gas development” (43 U.S.C. 1346).

Subsequent to the passage of the OCSLA of 1953, the Secretary of the Interior designated the

Bureau of Land Management as the administrative agency responsible for leasing submerged

Federal lands and the U.S. Geological Survey for supervising production. These responsibilities were taken over by Minerals Management Service in 1982, which was later renamed BOEM in

2012. To meet its responsibilities, BOEM has four priority goals for OCS leasing: (1) orderly resource development to meet the Nation’s energy needs; (2) protection of the marine and coastal environments; (3) receipt of fair market value; and (4) preservation of free-enterprise competition.

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321–4347) requires that all

Federal Agencies use a systematic, interdisciplinary approach that will ensure the integrated use of the natural and social sciences in any planning and decision-making that may have an effect on the human environment. BOEM’s efforts in this direction include environmental impact statements, environmental assessment teams, studies that acquire and analyze marine environmental data, literature surveys, socioeconomic-analysis studies, public conferences, and special studies (toxicity studies, spill-trajectory analyses, etc.).

OCS spill occurrence rates used in BOEM NEPA analyses are based on historical platform and pipeline oil spill rates, almost entirely from the Gulf of Mexico OCS. For the Atlantic OCS

Region planning areas, BOEM is seeking an alternative spill occurrence rate that will incorporate

(1) differences in oil spill causal factors between the Atlantic and other OCS planning areas and

(2) additional Atlantic-specific factors. One example of additional factors would be a fault tree approach similar to that historically used by BOEM in the Alaska Arctic OCS regions. Recent examples of such analyses include:

Bercha Group, Inc. 2016. Updates to Fault Tree Methodology and Technology for Risk Analysis

Liberty Project. OCS Study BOEM 2016–0052. Anchorage, AK.

Bercha Group, Inc. 2014. Updates to Fault Tree Methodology and Technology for Risk Analysis

Chukchi Sea Sale 193 Leased Area. OCS Study BOEM 2014-774. Anchorage, AK:

USDOI, BOEM, Alaska OCS Region. 109 pp. (Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/ PDFImages/ESPIS/5/5424.pdf)

Bercha Group, Inc. 2013. Updates to Fault Tree for Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators, Update of

GOM and PAC OCS Statistics to 2012. OCS Study BOEM 2013-0116. Anchorage, AK:

Prepared by Bercha International Inc. for USDOI, BOEM, Alaska OCS Region. 35 pp.

(http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/5/5351.pdf)

Bercha, F.G. 2011. Summary Final Report Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators for the

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas - Fault Tree Method. OCS Study BOEMRE 2011-030.

Anchorage, AK: Prepared by Bercha Group, Calgary, Alberta, for USDOI, BOEMRE, Alaska OCS Region. 48 pp. (http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/

4/5116.pdf)

The methodologies developed will be applied to all Atlantic oil and gas lease sales and proposed

Atlantic OCS development within the next five-year planning document (2019–2024). This 5-

Year Plan will set the maximum number of lease sales that can occur in the Atlantic; sales are sometimes deferred or cancelled for lack of sufficient industry interest or environmental reasons.

This Request for Proposals (RFP) provides for an analysis of all Atlantic oil and gas lease sales described in the 5-Year Plan.

C.3 GOAL AND OBJECTIVES

Objectives of this study are to:

1. Examine and document potential differences in causal factors between the Atlantic OCS planning areas and those identified for other OCS planning areas.

2. Develop alternative spill occurrence rate estimators and confidence intervals for Atlantic

OCS planning areas in support of NEPA analyses required for oil and gas lease sales and for future exploration and development plans.

3. Provide professional support to BOEM in regard to statistical issues of occurrence rates and estimator(s) and input values and distributions related to this study and its results.

C.4 SCOPE OF WORK

C.4.1 DESCRIPTION OF WORK

The work under this contract is to examine differences in oil spill occurrence factors between http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/5/5424.pdf http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/5/5351.pdf http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/4/5116.pdf http://www.data.boem.gov/PI/PDFImages/ESPIS/4/5116.pdf

Atlantic OCS planning areas and those produced for other OCS planning areas including Alaska, the Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, this work should identify and document any

Atlantic-specific causal factors that differentiate the Atlantic from other OCS planning areas.

The Contractor will also provide professional support to BOEM in regard to statistical issues of occurrence rates and estimator(s) related to this study and its results.

C.4.2 PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

The period of performance of this contract is thirty (30) months from date of contract award.

The project period should encompass all tasks from initial planning, through and including

BOEM’s final acceptance of all deliverables. The Contractor should deliver all required deliverables in accordance with Section C, Statement of Work, Section E, Inspection and

Acceptance Criteria, and Section F, Deliverables and Performance.

TASK 1. HOLD POST-AWARD MEETING WITH BOEM

Within thirty (30) days of contract award, the contractor shall hold a post-award meeting at

BOEM’s Headquarters in Sterling, Virginia with BOEM staff to ensure a clear understanding by all of study tasks, concerns, the availability of relevant data and reports, and time-lines. The

Contractor will: provide a draft agenda to the Contracting Officer (CO), Contracting Officer’s

Representative (COR), and Division of Environmental Sciences (DES) Contact prior to the meeting as well as the additional information outlined in Section F.4.1–6 (which includes, in part, a work plan and a Project Management Plan which contains a data management plan) in a digital format/e-mail at least two (2) weeks before the scheduled meeting date. The CO will forward this information to all meeting participants. The Contractor should also provide a

Meeting Summary to participants within two (2) weeks of the meeting which will list any changes needed to the planned work as a result of the meeting.

BOEM will provide information to the Contractor on the status of the Atlantic lease sales proposed in the draft 5-year plan for 2019–2024 and will discuss and decide upon the necessary exploration and development scenario information necessary to conduct the analysis in this meeting. The meeting will establish the schedule. The Contractor should comply with the timing, distribution, and other guidance regarding Task 1 included in Sections F.4.A and F.5.A.

TASK 2. DATA REVIEW, COLLATION, AND NON-ATLANTIC BASELINE

a. Review the methodologies and content provided in prior analyses conducted for offshore oil spill occurrence rates. The latest published example is “2016 Update of

Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills” (ABS, 2016) available at https://www.bsee.gov/osrr-oil-spill-response-research/2016-update-of-occurrence-rates-for-offshore-oil-spills. The ABS (2016) study provided a number of recommendations including (1) consider simulation techniques to estimate the likelihood of future worst-case scenario events and (2) consider using international data for estimating rare spill frequencies and understanding their causal factors. There are additional reports that have examined spill occurrence rates for offshore OCS areas and will be provided to the contractor. An analysis for the Atlantic OCS should be completed using an approach and methodology, as appropriate, that aligns with and which may improve upon approaches used in prior OCS Studies. If an alternative method is offered, justification for the new approach must be provided.

b. Data Review and Collation:

i. The Contractor shall perform a review of, search for, identify, and review any existing and readily available databases that provide historical oil spill occurrences from offshore oil and gas operations that could be utilized to determine spill occurrence rates for the Atlantic OCS Region. Data may be available for Canadian offshore areas in the North Atlantic and should also be explored. These sources shall be listed and described as much as prudent.

ii. The contractor shall perform a review of the primary and secondary literature, databases, and available internal data from BOEM/Bureau of Safety &

Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) (i.e., geology and environmental factors specific to the Atlantic Region) in order to identify the data that they may utilize in their analysis of the potential differences in oil spill occurrence factors between the Atlantic OCS and other OCS areas and to further identify any Atlantic-specific causal factors (e.g., greater frequency and intensity of hurricanes transiting the Atlantic OCS than within the Gulf of Mexico) that should be considered in their analysis.

iii. The Contractor shall review, collate, and document all oil spill occurrence data, geo-hazard data, and environmental data from alternative sources and locations as needed, including all recent data available from BSEE/BOEM that they will use to determine oil spill occurrence rates for the Atlantic OCS. In particular, collation of blowout data from comparable exploration and production regulatory environments is expected. BOEM can provide information on the geology, potential geo-hazards, and environmental conditions in the Atlantic Region during the Post-Award meeting that could be used as input data for this analysis.

iv. The Contractor shall assimilate the data and information as necessary and document for use in Tasks 3–6.

https://www.bsee.gov/osrr-oil-spill-response-research/2016-update-of-occurrence-rates-for-offshore-oil-spills https://www.bsee.gov/osrr-oil-spill-response-research/2016-update-of-occurrence-rates-for-offshore-oil-spills

TASK 3. DEVELOP METHODOLOGIES TO ESTIMATE OIL SPILL

OCCURRENCE RATES FOR ATLANTIC LEASE SALES AND OIL EXPLORATION

AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS.

a. Using the data obtained in Task 2, the contractor shall analyze the potential differences in oil spill occurrence factors between the Atlantic and other OCS planning areas and identify any Atlantic-specific causal factors that should be considered in this analysis.

b. The Contractor shall identify and analyze the main hazards for oil spills on offshore oil and gas facilities or from sub-sea pipelines or other OCS crude oil transport methods.

c. The Contractor shall discuss how the hazards can be binned or differentiated depending on the specificity of the project. For example, lease sales typically have much less detailed information than an oil development project.

d. The contractor shall perform synthesis and interpretation necessary to accomplish Tasks

2–6.

e. The Contractor will develop methodologies using exploration and development scenario information provided by BOEM in the Post-Award meeting. This information should form the basis to estimate oil spill occurrence rates for the Atlantic OCS both in the exploration phase (including both OCS Sale Environmental Impact Statements and site-specific exploration plans) and the development phase for the proposed lease sales in the

5-year plan.

f. The Contractor shall quantify robustness of the statistics (confidence limits on spill frequency estimates) and quantify precision/variance of estimates.

g. Spill occurrence rates (occurrence rates) for multiple size ranges of crude and diesel spills in the Atlantic should be projected. The primary focus should be in terms of the number of spills of at least 1 bbl. and less than or equal to 999 bbl.; of at least 1,000 bbl. or greater; and of at least 10,000 bbl. or greater that potentially could be projected to occur. The contractor will generate life-of-field occurrence estimators. Spill occurrence estimators should be convertible to the number of spills per billion barrels of oil produced over the life of the exploration and development scenario.

h. The Contractor shall document the strengths, weaknesses, and key assumptions necessary in using the oil spill occurrence rates that will be captured in the Report (Task 6).

TASK 4. PROFFESIONAL SUPPORT

In addition to other reporting and meeting requirements, the Contractor shall provide on-call professional support throughout the contract to BOEM staff in regard to statistical issues of occurrence rates and estimators and input values and distributions in the completed project report(s). We anticipate that this would be sporadic in periods of a few hours each rather than in a single block of time, in response to specific issues. This support could involve teleconference, e-mail, or written response.

TASK 5. PROGRAM MANAGEMENT

a. PMP: Develop and operate under the program-management plan described in the proposal. A data management plan (DMP) shall be developed in consultation with

BOEM and incorporated into the PMP. This plan shall include a Project Manager (PM) with sufficient authority to serve as the Contract Administrator, the point-of-contact with

BOEM, and provide leadership to the project Team. The PM will ultimately be responsible for all deliverables, budget control, quality assurance for all products, compliance and adherence with schedule of the project, and that all personnel work synergistically and cooperatively for the common goal of the project. The PM will also be responsible for ensuring safe, sufficient, and effective equipment, supplies, and facilities are available as needed for the project.

Scientific integrity is vital to Department of Interior (DOI) activities under which scientific research, data, summaries, synthesis, interpretations, presentations, and/or publications are developed and used. Failure to uphold the highest degree of scientific integrity will result not only in potentially flawed scientific results, interpretations, and applications but will damage DOI’s reputation and ability to uphold the public’s trust.

All work performed must comply with the DOI Scientific Integrity Policy posted to http://www.doi.gov/scientificintegrity, or its equivalent.

b. Data Management Plan: The Contractor shall develop and follow a DMP as a part of their overall PMP for this study that shall include procedures to handle data, databases, and model results, Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) procedures, dissemination and distribution protocols, and archival procedures. A designated Data

Manager shall implement the plan to ensure compliance by all Principal Investigators

(PIs) involved with the study. After all QA/QC procedures have been completed, the final products shall be submitted to the BOEM COR and others identified in Section F.6.

The Contractor shall be responsible for the proper formatting of all data. Text files shall be submitted in a format compatible with Microsoft (MS) Word; database files in a format compatible with MS Access. All electronic files and documentation should be searchable. All software deliverables should contain complete program in-line documentation for all the source code.

Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 (found at 29 U.S.C. 794d; see also http://section508.gov/) requires access to and use of information by individuals with disabilities. A deliverable such as digital reports (ex: Adobe® Portable Document

Format [PDF] files) to be placed on the web (either on the agency’s web server of the company’s), video footage, or other digital data such as Compact Disc Read-Only

Memory (CD-ROM) or Digital Video Disks (DVDs) to be distributed, are subject to

Section 508 guidelines. Simplified, this means that PDF files need to be formatted so that they are “readable” by assistive technology devices such as screen readers. Video footage must be closed captioned. CD-ROMs or DVDs which contain hypertext markup language (HTML), PDF, or word processor files must be accessible.

No originals should be mailed without prior backups. These files are proprietary and should not be used by the Contractor for any purpose other than specified by the

Contract, unless authorized in writing by the CO, and must be secured at all times. When distributed, the Contractor should include language to the data recipient that ensures that the data are not distributed further, and that no publication is done without opportunity http://www.doi.gov/scientificintegrity http://section508.gov/ for PIs to be co-authors or giving acknowledgement to BOEM and the Study for the data.

The Contractor should submit digital copies of all final results and data used in the analysis. This deliverable should be completed after all QA/QC procedures are finalized including the analysis by the individual PI. The preferred format of the files should be determined based on an agreement between the COR and the Contractor as the study progresses. Any changes in data formats during the contract period of performance must be agreed upon in advance by the Government and the Contractor.

TASK 6. DELIVERABLES PREPARATION AND SUBMITTAL

All results, data products, data collection procedures, visual aids, models used, modelling inputs, statistical procedures, databases, citations, references as permitted by copyright law, cover graphics, insights and new knowledge generated by this study shall be culminated in a report following BOEM guidelines and submitted for review to BOEM. All comments shall be incorporated and addressed to the maximum and practical extent. The Offeror shall describe the data and results in the final report in such a manner that BOEM and other potential users of the data may understand. The report shall include the results or information specified in Section C

Statement of Work, Task 3 Study Objectives (a) through (h).

As explained in Section F, this report will start off as a draft report and shall conform to specifications and templates found at our web site: http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-

Studies-Program-Report-Specifications/. The draft deliverables shall conform to the submission time requirements of Section F. This report may go through several BOEM reviews before it is deemed acceptable by BOEM. The Offeror will then prepare and submit the “Proof” Report that incorporates comments, corrections, and additions identified during the review of the “Draft”

Report. Once the “Proof” Report is deemed acceptable to BOEM, the Offeror may then proceed to prepare the “Final” Report.

The Contractor shall deliver electronic files of the analysis input files, metadata, the parameters used, and the output files as well as of all databases, references where allowed by copyright law, and documents. Bibliographic information should be compiled in a format that allows import of all fields needed to assemble a full reference list (e.g., author(s), editor(s), title of document, journal or report volume and number, page numbers, edition, date of publication, International

Standard Book Number [ISBN], publisher, publisher location, relevant electronic links and date accessed, etc…) readable by and importable into MS Excel, MS Access, Reference Manager, and EndNote software. All electronic files should be searchable.

In addition to the deliverables mentioned under Task 1, the following deliverables will be prepared and submitted:

http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-Studies-Program-Report-Specifications/ http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-Studies-Program-Report-Specifications/