1066600037_-_JOFOC.pdf

JUSTIFICATION AND APPROVAL (J&A)

FOR OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION

1. The Office of Acquisition Management (A/LM/AQM), Department of State, is processing this Justification and Approval (J&A) for the purchase of a highly customized commercial software called Senturion that includes licenses, and software support services on behalf of Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization

Operations (CSO) Advanced Conflict Analytics Team situated under the Office of

Policy. The estimated cost is $90,000.00 annually.

2. Nature and/or description of the action being approved

This particular software is the only platform that can perform the functions necessary for conducting rigorous modeling and simulation of crisis scenarios. This software is used by the CIA and DoD for simulating and estimating how conflicts and crises evolve overtime. It has a VV&A (Verified, Validated and Authorized) rating by the Defense

Intelligent Agency (DIA) and Central Intelligent Agency (CIA). There is no other identifiable software with these capabilities. CSO will use this software for testing scenarios for preventing atrocities, identifying pathways to mitigating conflict and crises on multiple engagement areas, developing pathways for preventing violent extremism, and general preparation for interagency planning processes. CSO’s Advanced Conflict

Analytics Team currently works with the CIA on applying this model for atrocities prevention and case-specific conflict prevention analysis. This software enhances CSO’s ability to anticipate how conflicts will evolve in the future, thereby developing pathways to preventing or minimizing conflict.

3. A description of the supplies or services required to meet the Department’s needs.

The software being requested is a state of the art platform called Senturion, with no authorized reseller. The software license and services are owned and supported by

ACERTAS, LLC and/or SENTURION FORECASTING, LLC collectively referred to herein as ACERTAS.

The software will allow CSO to simulate complex negotiations, accurately estimates how crises evolve over time, identifies simulated opportunities, generates network analysis, and tests for statistical / empirical validity of predicted outcomes. This is the only software of its kind containing the necessary requirements for accurate and reliable modeling of complex negotiations and crises scenarios under conflict setting. The software is V&V (verified and validated) by the Department of Defense and the intelligence community in accurately projected how crises evolve over time. In 2005, the platform was rated as the premiere predictive model in the market. Since then, there has been no identifiable commercial product that meets it’s standard for predictive functionality and ability to execute complexing modeling of crises in relatively short time period. This is the only existing software platform that can deliver the requirements for the Department needs.

CSO needs an agent based game theoretic model that can accurately predict and execute sophisticated modeling of complex negotiations and crises scenarios based on reliable platform deemed valid under the VV&A (Verified, Validated and Authorized) rating of the U.S. government. Based on CSO expert judgment and the government VV&A rating, Senturion is the only platform that meets this standard for executing the required functions.

CSO will require a user license to use Senturion predictive platform along with technical support from the developer.

4. An identification of the statutory authority permitting other than full and open competition.

41 USC 253(c)(1), FAR 6.302-1, Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements; and 41 USC 253(c)(2), FAR 6.302-2, Unusual and compelling urgency.

Acertas is the only source for this software. This software platform is currently being used in direct support the S/SECI Allen (Special Envoy on Countering ISIL). Per request of S/SECI, CSO is using this platform to estimate and monitor the impact of the interagency lines of effort aimed at countering ISIL. Initial results of the model outputs have been briefed to S/SECI and shared with the NSC. S/SECI has stated that this work is

“critical” to the planning and strategy development process aimed at countering ISIL.

This platform is the core capability in accurately projecting and anticipating conflicts and crises globally. Based on the increase in crises globally and CSO’s mandate according to the QDDR and FAM for responding to and anticipating conflict globally, this request is of unusual and compelling urgency.

5. A demonstration that the proposed contractor’s unique qualifications or the nature of the acquisition requires use of the authority cited.

Senturion was developed by highly recognized social scientists and has a VV&A

(verified, validated, and authorized) by the United States government. In 2005 it was selected by the Defense Intelligence Agency as the premier predictive capability. Since then, there has been nothing developed in meeting CSO’s analytical requirements for accuracy, specificity, and ability to execute.

6. A description of efforts made to ensure that offers are solicited from as many potential sources as is practicable

Senturion is currently being used on stand-alone by the CIA, DIA and CSO (30 day trail).

The IC is primary U.S. Government user of this software. Intensive market research by

CSO and partners in the IC have resulted in negative results in finding any vendors with advanced predictive functionality and ability to execute complex modeling of crises in relatively short time period. CSO current 30 day trail of Senturion expires December 31, 2015 which will leave CSO vulnerable in its abilities in meeting one of its primary

Department requirements, if purchase is not accomplished immediately and before

January 1, 2016.

7. A determination by the Contracting Officer that the anticipated cost to the

Government will be fair and reasonable.

The Contracting Officer will make a fair and reasonable price determination in accordance with FAR 13.106.3. The manufacturer offers’ this product to the general public. This product/software is for commercial use, including support and the price listed is same price charged other U.S. government customers.

8. A description of the market survey conducted and the results or a statement of the reasons a market survey was not conducted.

Intensive market research by CSO and partners in the IC conducted. CSO was not able to identify any products with the capabilities of this platform because there is nothing that exists with full suite of its capabilities within one instance. This is niche product that requires highly skilled users with very few qualified users. Only a handful of skilled users can effectively apply this tool, requiring expertise in quantitative modeling. CSO’s advanced conflict analytics team has the particular expertise, but needs this computing capability to match it.

9. Any other facts supporting the use of other than full and open competition.

As this is a sole source brand name only justification, no one contractor’s unique qualifications are used as the basis for this justification. Rather, the products identified by brand name herein have been identified as the only products, with the manufacturer the only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirement. The continuation of this software following the test program will allow the

CSO to meet the program requirements, seamlessly and without interruption.

10. A listing of sources, if any, that expressed, in writing, an interest in the acquisition.

No other sources have expressed interest in writing or otherwise in this acquisition.

11. A statement of the actions, if any, the agency may take to remove or overcome any barriers to competition before any subsequent acquisition for the supplies or services required.

CERTIFICATIONS

TECHNICAL AND REQUIREMENTS CERTIFICATION (FAR 6.303-2(b) I certify that this justification is accurate and contains complete data necessary to support the recommendation for other than fuU and open competition.

Dway on P. Richmond IT Team Lead

CSO/EX

II-/7' ...;l()!S Date

CONTRACTING OFFICER CERTIFICATION (FAR 6.303-2(a)(12) I certify that this submission is accurate to the best of my knowledge, and that it contains complete information necessary to enable other officials to make an informed recommendation for approval or disapproval.

SIGNATURE:

JoAnn Carroll Branch Chief fVLM/AQM/IT/ISB

Date

LEGAL SUFFICIENCY REVIEW (Ref: PIB NO. 2010-24; AQM QA Plan 02 03 2011) This J&A is hereby determined to be legally sufficient.

SIGNATURE:

Dennis Gallagher Assistant Legal Adviser for Buildings and Acqu isi tions (I..IBA)

Date

CERTIFICATIONS (Continued)

Jessica McDonagh Contracting Officer

A/LM/AQM/WWD/FBSB

12/30/2015