Federal Project Grant Award Summary

The University of Chicago received a $172,904 Project Grant award from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) under the Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research program (CFDA 93.847), effective April 1, 2026, through March 31, 2031. This K23 career development award funds the development and validation of clinically actionable decision-support tools to individualize glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) prescribing for obesity treatment. The project will deliver three primary products: (1) machine learning-based predictive models using electronic health record data from 25,212 patients to estimate likelihood of achieving 12-month weight loss and experiencing treatment-related adverse events; (2) a validated microsimulation model employing the Expected Value of Individualized Care framework to quantify the clinical and economic value of individualized versus treat-all GLP-1RA prescribing approaches; and (3) an optimized patient-provider conversation aid designed to communicate individualized risks and benefits to support scalable obesity treatment strategies.

This research directly addresses the substantial public health burden of obesity affecting over 40% of U.S. adults and contributing to approximately $170 billion in annual healthcare expenditures. The deliverables are designed to move beyond current one-size-fits-all prescribing based on body mass index thresholds by accounting for biological, genetic, behavioral, social, and environmental heterogeneity among patients to reduce trial-and-error prescribing, adverse outcomes, and resource waste.