Federal Grant Award Summary

The Pennsylvania State University received a $1,099,777 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Office of Integrative Activities under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to conduct fundamental research on tornado formation processes from supercell thunderstorms. The project, which commenced July 1, 2026 and concludes June 30, 2029, investigates how near-ground atmospheric turbulence and coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer contribute to tornadogenesis. The research team will employ a mixed-methodology approach incorporating numerical modeling, machine learning (ML) algorithms, and analysis of in-storm thermodynamic observations to identify subtle storm features associated with tornado potential and examine predictability variations near critical environmental thresholds.

The primary deliverables include the application of machine learning techniques to historical numerical simulation datasets to identify storm characteristics predictive of tornado development, investigation of how forecast skill degrades at critical atmospheric threshold conditions, and execution of newly targeted numerical simulations to further validate the identified tornadogenesis pathway. This research directly supports improved real-time tornado warning capabilities for public safety, with the award also encompassing significant public outreach and student career development activities. No sub-awards are planned for this project.