This Project Grant award from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050) provides $167,227 to the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) to advance research on the predictability of low-probability tropical cyclogenesis. The project aims to use conventional and AI techniques, ensemble forecasts, and advanced modeling to investigate the processes and predictability of tropical cyclone formation, particularly for weak waves in the Western Atlantic and Caribbean that develop unexpectedly into tropical cyclones. Key expected outcomes include providing insights to forecasters and model developers, identifying time windows of increased/decreased predictive confidence to enhance actionable forecasts, and supporting the education of graduate and undergraduate students in these techniques. The project will leverage reanalysis data, ensemble forecasts, and multiscale modeling, with a focus on the 5-day period leading up to and immediately after tropical cyclone genesis. Results and software will be shared with the scientific community. The University of Miami's Tritium Laboratory, a specialized facility within RSMAS, may provide supporting analytical services as a subcontractor for this project.
Mod # | Description | Reason For Modification | Federal Obligation (Click to sort descending) | Date (Click to sort ascending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not listed | $167.2k | 1/8/25 |