Project Grant 2217618

This three-year, $830,233 project grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) supports research examining the impact of greenhouse gas-induced global warming on tropical cyclones in the Pacific region. The Columbia University research team, in collaboration with sub-awardee The Trustees of Columbia University, will utilize flux adjustment techniques and high-resolution atmospheric modeling to simulate the response of key ocean temperature patterns to increased greenhouse gases. They will also employ empirical modeling to predict tropical cyclone tracks and intensities under different sea surface warming scenarios. The products will include climate model simulations evaluating how elimination of known cold tongue biases affects projections of changes to important temperature contrasts in the tropical Pacific. Synthetic tropical cyclone data generated using the climate model outputs and a hazard model will provide additional insight into potential shifts in tropical cyclone behavior across the Pacific basin under continued warming. Outcomes from this research could help inform climate adaptation and disaster risk planning related to tropical cyclone impacts.