This Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Division of Environmental Biology, under the Biological Sciences program (CFDA 47.074), provides $570,269 to The Washington University to study the influence of urbanization on plant pathogen dynamics. Through mathematical modeling, field studies, and experiments over four years, the grantee will quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation, climate variation, and population connectivity on disease prevalence across theoretical and real-world urbanization gradients. Flexible metapopulation models will simulate disease spread under urbanization and climate scenarios. Fieldwork and experiments will focus on common plants and their fungal pathogens across an urban heat island in St. Louis, Missouri, engaging undergraduate and high school students in data collection. The grantee will also incorporate modeling and pathogen genotyping into a new course-based undergraduate research experience. If awarded, the grantee will provide insights into predicting changes in urban disease prevalence from variations in climate and connectivity resulting from urbanization.
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