Project Grant 2219980

This three-year $247,784 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) supports research investigating the effects of upper ocean mixed layer depth variability on sea surface temperature (SST). The awardee, University of Washington, will develop a conceptual framework and metrics to analyze data collected throughout tropical and subtropical oceans. Statistics will identify specific ocean-atmosphere coupled processes essential for SST prediction in regional and global circulation models. A stochastic model integrating the high-frequency co-variability between atmospheric forcing and mixed layer depth will be developed and tested to predict SST evolution. Existing observations from moored platforms and profiling instruments measuring coincident air-sea interaction and upper ocean processes will be utilized. Single column mixing models forced by observational metrics will also provide information about contributing processes. This work opens the possibility for very simple coupled ocean mixed layer models more accurately simulating SST anomalies and coupling to the atmosphere than constant-depth models. Results will provide a framework for understanding model resolution needs to accurately predict SST anomalies.