This $673,418 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) will fund research at North Carolina State University to improve understanding of monthly flood dynamics over the southeastern and south-central United States. Specifically, the university will quantify shifts in flood climatology, identify moisture delivery pathways for floods, and attribute sources of modulation for floods' spatiotemporal variability. Researchers will examine historical streamflow data and use statistical and physical modeling approaches to analyze shifts in monthly flood climatology since optimal climate normals were established. Lagrangian particle tracking models will aid in organizing patterns and moisture delivery analysis. Attribution of sources influencing flood processes across scales will be determined using statistical techniques and physical modeling incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results will be disseminated through publications, seminars and workshops to enhance scientific understanding and better inform forecasting and decision-making regarding flood hazards in the vulnerable region.