4 THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (WAP), ONE OF THE MOST RAPIDLY WARMING REGIONS ON THE PLANET, IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A LARGESCALE SHIFT FROM A COLD, DRY POLAR CLIMATE TO A WARMER, MORE HUMID SUB-POLAR CLIMATE. RAPID ECOLOGICAL CHANGES RESULTING FROM THIS SHIFT ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BOTH PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON (WHICH COMPRISE THE BASE OF THE ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB), AND RAPIDLY CHANGING POPULATION DYNAMICS OF IMPORTANT MESOPREDATORS SUCH AS THE PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS. PENGUINS ARE OFTEN REFERRED TO AS INDICATOR SPECIES BECAUSE THEIR POPULATION RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROVIDE A WINDOW THROUGH WHICH WE CAN STUDY THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN THAT MAY OTHERWISE GO UNDETECTED. THIS PROJECT WILL TAKE A MULTI-TIERED APPROACH, LEVERAGING THE POWER OF REMOTE SENSORS, FIELD SPECTROSCOPY, AND STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS TO DETECT SHIFTS IN PENGUIN DIET (THOUGHT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHANGES IN PENGUIN ABUNDANCE) OVER BOTH TIME AND SPACE IN AN ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES CRITICAL QUESTIONS REGARDING LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE WAP. DIETARY SHIFTS WILL BE DETECTED BY LINKING THE SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF PENGUIN GUANO TO DIETARY COMPOSITION, DETERMINED BY STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF GUANO SAMPLES. GUANO SAMPLES COLLECTED DIRECTLY FROM PENGUIN NESTING SITES WILL UNDERGO SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING A FULL RANGE (350 2500 NM) FIELDPORTABLE SPECTRORADIOMETER, BEFORE BEING DRIED FOR STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS. SPECTRA WILL BE CONVOLVED TO MATCH THE SPECTRAL BANDWIDTHS OF A NUMBER OF REMOTE SENSORS (LANDSAT 4/5/7/8, HYPERION, WORLDVIEW 2/3), AND A PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION MODELING APPROACH USED TO ASSOCIATE STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES TO MEASURED GUANO SPECTRA. PRELIMINARY ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF USING SPECTRA TO ACCURATELY PREDICT STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES. USING THIS APPROACH, A 35-YEAR TIME SERIES OF DIETARY CHANGE OVER THE WAP WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING IMAGERY DATING BACK TO THE 1980S (BEGINNING WITH LANDSAT 4/5). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PENGUIN DIET AND RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES (INCLUDING SEA ICE CONCENTRATION, NEAR-COLONY BATHYMETRY, AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY) WILL BE QUANTIFIED USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH. AN ANALYSIS OF PENGUIN DIET OVER THE LAST 30+ YEARS WILL SERVE AS A KEY TEST OF THE KRILL SURPLUS HYPOTHESIS , A SCENARIO IN WHICH KRILL (A PRINCIPAL FOOD SOURCE OF PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS) AVAILABILITY TO PENGUINS HAS DECLINED NOT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT TO THE REBOUND OF WHALE POPULATIONS (SIGNIFICANT KRILL PREDATORS) FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF INDUSTRIAL WHALING IN THE REGION. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN DIET SYNCHRONOUS WITH CHANGES IN UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAPID CHANGE IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, RATHER THAN THE RECOVERY OF LARGE KRILL PREDATORS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHIFTS IN KRILL ABUNDANCE (AND HENCE PENGUIN DIET). THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEBATE REGARDING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW FOOD WEB FUNCTION AND COMPOSITION ARE IMPACTED BY RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. AT ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL, THIS PROJECT BRIDGES THE DISCIPLINES OF REMOTE SENSING AND ECOLOGY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF HOW RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRIVING ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES VIA PREY AVAILABILITY IN THE ANTARCTIC A CRITICAL COMPONENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB DYNAMICS. THIS NOVEL, LOW-COST FRAMEWORK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING FUTURE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND MAY BE OF INTEREST TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. THIS WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES NASA'S GOAL OF DETECTING CHANGES IN EARTH S ECOSYSTEMS AND SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACT BIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION. Funding Only Action ($22k) 5/25/21 Not listed THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (WAP) ONE OF THE MOST RAPIDLY WARMING REGIONS ON THE PLANET IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A LARGESCALE SHIFT FROM A COLD DRY POLAR CLIMATE TO A WARMER MORE HUMID SUB-POLAR CLIMATE. RAPID ECOLOGICAL CHANGES RESULTING FROM THIS SHIFT ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BOTH PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON (WHICH COMPRISE THE BASE OF THE ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB) AND RAPIDLY CHANGING POPULATION DYNAMICS OF IMPORTANT MESOPREDATORS SUCH AS THE PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS. PENGUINS ARE OFTEN REFERRED TO AS INDICATOR SPECIES BECAUSE THEIR POPULATION RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROVIDE A WINDOW THROUGH WHICH WE CAN STUDY THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN THAT MAY OTHERWISE GO UNDETECTED. THIS PROJECT WILL TAKE A MULTI-TIERED APPROACH LEVERAGING THE POWER OF REMOTE SENSORS FIELD SPECTROSCOPY AND STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS TO DETECT SHIFTS IN PENGUIN DIET (THOUGHT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHANGES IN PENGUIN ABUNDANCE) OVER BOTH TIME AND SPACE IN AN ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES CRITICAL QUESTIONS REGARDING LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE WAP. DIETARY SHIFTS WILL BE DETECTED BY LINKING THE SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF PENGUIN GUANO TO DIETARY COMPOSITION DETERMINED BY STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF GUANO SAMPLES. GUANO SAMPLES COLLECTED DIRECTLY FROM PENGUIN NESTING SITES WILL UNDERGO SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING A FULL RANGE (350 2500 NM) FIELDPORTABLE SPECTRORADIOMETER BEFORE BEING DRIED FOR STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS. SPECTRA WILL BE CONVOLVED TO MATCH THE SPECTRAL BANDWIDTHS OF A NUMBER OF REMOTE SENSORS (LANDSAT 4/5/7/8 HYPERION WORLDVIEW 2/3) AND A PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION MODELING APPROACH USED TO ASSOCIATE STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES TO MEASURED GUANO SPECTRA. PRELIMINARY ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF USING SPECTRA TO ACCURATELY PREDICT STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES. USING THIS APPROACH A 35-YEAR TIME SERIES OF DIETARY CHANGE OVER THE WAP WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING IMAGERY DATING BACK TO THE 1980S (BEGINNING WITH LANDSAT 4/5). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PENGUIN DIET AND RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES (INCLUDING SEA ICE CONCENTRATION NEAR-COLONY BATHYMETRY AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY) WILL BE QUANTIFIED USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH. AN ANALYSIS OF PENGUIN DIET OVER THE LAST 30+ YEARS WILL SERVE AS A KEY TEST OF THE KRILL SURPLUS HYPOTHESIS A SCENARIO IN WHICH KRILL (A PRINCIPAL FOOD SOURCE OF PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS) AVAILABILITY TO PENGUINS HAS DECLINED NOT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BUT TO THE REBOUND OF WHALE POPULATIONS (SIGNIFICANT KRILL PREDATORS) FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF INDUSTRIAL WHALING IN THE REGION. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN DIET SYNCHRONOUS WITH CHANGES IN UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAPID CHANGE IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT RATHER THAN THE RECOVERY OF LARGE KRILL PREDATORS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHIFTS IN KRILL ABUNDANCE (AND HENCE PENGUIN DIET). THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEBATE REGARDING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW FOOD WEB FUNCTION AND COMPOSITION ARE IMPACTED BY RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. AT ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL THIS PROJECT BRIDGES THE DISCIPLINES OF REMOTE SENSING AND ECOLOGY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF HOW RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRIVING ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES VIA PREY AVAILABILITY IN THE ANTARCTIC A CRITICAL COMPONENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB DYNAMICS. THIS NOVEL LOW-COST FRAMEWORK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING FUTURE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE AND MAY BE OF INTEREST TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. THIS WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES NASA'S GOAL OF DETECTING CHANGES IN EARTH S ECOSYSTEMS AND SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACT BIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION. ($22k) 5/25/21 Not listed THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (WAP) ONE OF THE MOST RAPIDLY WARMING REGIONS ON THE PLANET IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A LARGESCALE SHIFT FROM A COLD DRY POLAR CLIMATE TO A WARMER MORE HUMID SUB-POLAR CLIMATE. RAPID ECOLOGICAL CHANGES RESULTING FROM THIS SHIFT ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BOTH PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON (WHICH COMPRISE THE BASE OF THE ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB) AND RAPIDLY CHANGING POPULATION DYNAMICS OF IMPORTANT MESOPREDATORS SUCH AS THE PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS. PENGUINS ARE OFTEN REFERRED TO AS INDICATOR SPECIES BECAUSE THEIR POPULATION RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROVIDE A WINDOW THROUGH WHICH WE CAN STUDY THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN THAT MAY OTHERWISE GO UNDETECTED. THIS PROJECT WILL TAKE A MULTI-TIERED APPROACH LEVERAGING THE POWER OF REMOTE SENSORS FIELD SPECTROSCOPY AND STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS TO DETECT SHIFTS IN PENGUIN DIET (THOUGHT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHANGES IN PENGUIN ABUNDANCE) OVER BOTH TIME AND SPACE IN AN ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES CRITICAL QUESTIONS REGARDING LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE WAP. DIETARY SHIFTS WILL BE DETECTED BY LINKING THE SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF PENGUIN GUANO TO DIETARY COMPOSITION DETERMINED BY STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF GUANO SAMPLES. GUANO SAMPLES COLLECTED DIRECTLY FROM PENGUIN NESTING SITES WILL UNDERGO SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING A FULL RANGE (350 2500 NM) FIELDPORTABLE SPECTRORADIOMETER BEFORE BEING DRIED FOR STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS. SPECTRA WILL BE CONVOLVED TO MATCH THE SPECTRAL BANDWIDTHS OF A NUMBER OF REMOTE SENSORS (LANDSAT 4/5/7/8 HYPERION WORLDVIEW 2/3) AND A PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION MODELING APPROACH USED TO ASSOCIATE STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES TO MEASURED GUANO SPECTRA. PRELIMINARY ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF USING SPECTRA TO ACCURATELY PREDICT STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES. USING THIS APPROACH A 35-YEAR TIME SERIES OF DIETARY CHANGE OVER THE WAP WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING IMAGERY DATING BACK TO THE 1980S (BEGINNING WITH LANDSAT 4/5). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PENGUIN DIET AND RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES (INCLUDING SEA ICE CONCENTRATION NEAR-COLONY BATHYMETRY AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY) WILL BE QUANTIFIED USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH. AN ANALYSIS OF PENGUIN DIET OVER THE LAST 30+ YEARS WILL SERVE AS A KEY TEST OF THE KRILL SURPLUS HYPOTHESIS A SCENARIO IN WHICH KRILL (A PRINCIPAL FOOD SOURCE OF PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS) AVAILABILITY TO PENGUINS HAS DECLINED NOT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BUT TO THE REBOUND OF WHALE POPULATIONS (SIGNIFICANT KRILL PREDATORS) FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF INDUSTRIAL WHALING IN THE REGION. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN DIET SYNCHRONOUS WITH CHANGES IN UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAPID CHANGE IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT RATHER THAN THE RECOVERY OF LARGE KRILL PREDATORS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHIFTS IN KRILL ABUNDANCE (AND HENCE PENGUIN DIET). THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEBATE REGARDING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW FOOD WEB FUNCTION AND COMPOSITION ARE IMPACTED BY RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. AT ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL THIS PROJECT BRIDGES THE DISCIPLINES OF REMOTE SENSING AND ECOLOGY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF HOW RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRIVING ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES VIA PREY AVAILABILITY IN THE ANTARCTIC A CRITICAL COMPONENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB DYNAMICS. THIS NOVEL LOW-COST FRAMEWORK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING FUTURE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE AND MAY BE OF INTEREST TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. THIS WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES NASA'S GOAL OF DETECTING CHANGES IN EARTH S ECOSYSTEMS AND SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACT BIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION. $45.0k 7/25/18 3 THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (WAP), ONE OF THE MOST RAPIDLY WARMING REGIONS ON THE PLANET, IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A LARGESCALE SHIFT FROM A COLD, DRY POLAR CLIMATE TO A WARMER, MORE HUMID SUB-POLAR CLIMATE. RAPID ECOLOGICAL CHANGES RESULTING FROM THIS SHIFT ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BOTH PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON (WHICH COMPRISE THE BASE OF THE ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB), AND RAPIDLY CHANGING POPULATION DYNAMICS OF IMPORTANT MESOPREDATORS SUCH AS THE PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS. PENGUINS ARE OFTEN REFERRED TO AS INDICATOR SPECIES BECAUSE THEIR POPULATION RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROVIDE A WINDOW THROUGH WHICH WE CAN STUDY THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN THAT MAY OTHERWISE GO UNDETECTED. THIS PROJECT WILL TAKE A MULTI-TIERED APPROACH, LEVERAGING THE POWER OF REMOTE SENSORS, FIELD SPECTROSCOPY, AND STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS TO DETECT SHIFTS IN PENGUIN DIET (THOUGHT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHANGES IN PENGUIN ABUNDANCE) OVER BOTH TIME AND SPACE IN AN ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES CRITICAL QUESTIONS REGARDING LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE WAP. DIETARY SHIFTS WILL BE DETECTED BY LINKING THE SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF PENGUIN GUANO TO DIETARY COMPOSITION, DETERMINED BY STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF GUANO SAMPLES. GUANO SAMPLES COLLECTED DIRECTLY FROM PENGUIN NESTING SITES WILL UNDERGO SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING A FULL RANGE (350 2500 NM) FIELDPORTABLE SPECTRORADIOMETER, BEFORE BEING DRIED FOR STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS. SPECTRA WILL BE CONVOLVED TO MATCH THE SPECTRAL BANDWIDTHS OF A NUMBER OF REMOTE SENSORS (LANDSAT 4/5/7/8, HYPERION, WORLDVIEW 2/3), AND A PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION MODELING APPROACH USED TO ASSOCIATE STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES TO MEASURED GUANO SPECTRA. PRELIMINARY ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF USING SPECTRA TO ACCURATELY PREDICT STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES. USING THIS APPROACH, A 35-YEAR TIME SERIES OF DIETARY CHANGE OVER THE WAP WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING IMAGERY DATING BACK TO THE 1980S (BEGINNING WITH LANDSAT 4/5). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PENGUIN DIET AND RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES (INCLUDING SEA ICE CONCENTRATION, NEAR-COLONY BATHYMETRY, AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY) WILL BE QUANTIFIED USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH. AN ANALYSIS OF PENGUIN DIET OVER THE LAST 30+ YEARS WILL SERVE AS A KEY TEST OF THE KRILL SURPLUS HYPOTHESIS , A SCENARIO IN WHICH KRILL (A PRINCIPAL FOOD SOURCE OF PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS) AVAILABILITY TO PENGUINS HAS DECLINED NOT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT TO THE REBOUND OF WHALE POPULATIONS (SIGNIFICANT KRILL PREDATORS) FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF INDUSTRIAL WHALING IN THE REGION. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN DIET SYNCHRONOUS WITH CHANGES IN UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAPID CHANGE IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, RATHER THAN THE RECOVERY OF LARGE KRILL PREDATORS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHIFTS IN KRILL ABUNDANCE (AND HENCE PENGUIN DIET). THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEBATE REGARDING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW FOOD WEB FUNCTION AND COMPOSITION ARE IMPACTED BY RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. AT ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL, THIS PROJECT BRIDGES THE DISCIPLINES OF REMOTE SENSING AND ECOLOGY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF HOW RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRIVING ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES VIA PREY AVAILABILITY IN THE ANTARCTIC A CRITICAL COMPONENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB DYNAMICS. THIS NOVEL, LOW-COST FRAMEWORK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING FUTURE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND MAY BE OF INTEREST TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. THIS WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES NASA'S GOAL OF DETECTING CHANGES IN EARTH S ECOSYSTEMS AND SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACT BIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION. Funding Only Action $45.0k 7/25/18 2 THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (WAP), ONE OF THE MOST RAPIDLY WARMING REGIONS ON THE PLANET, IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A LARGESCALE SHIFT FROM A COLD, DRY POLAR CLIMATE TO A WARMER, MORE HUMID SUB-POLAR CLIMATE. RAPID ECOLOGICAL CHANGES RESULTING FROM THIS SHIFT ARE CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF BOTH PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON (WHICH COMPRISE THE BASE OF THE ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB), AND RAPIDLY CHANGING POPULATION DYNAMICS OF IMPORTANT MESOPREDATORS SUCH AS THE PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS. PENGUINS ARE OFTEN REFERRED TO AS INDICATOR SPECIES BECAUSE THEIR POPULATION RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROVIDE A WINDOW THROUGH WHICH WE CAN STUDY THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN THAT MAY OTHERWISE GO UNDETECTED. THIS PROJECT WILL TAKE A MULTI-TIERED APPROACH, LEVERAGING THE POWER OF REMOTE SENSORS, FIELD SPECTROSCOPY, AND STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS TO DETECT SHIFTS IN PENGUIN DIET (THOUGHT TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF CHANGES IN PENGUIN ABUNDANCE) OVER BOTH TIME AND SPACE IN AN ANALYSIS THAT ADDRESSES CRITICAL QUESTIONS REGARDING LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ACROSS THE WAP. DIETARY SHIFTS WILL BE DETECTED BY LINKING THE SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF PENGUIN GUANO TO DIETARY COMPOSITION, DETERMINED BY STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS OF GUANO SAMPLES. GUANO SAMPLES COLLECTED DIRECTLY FROM PENGUIN NESTING SITES WILL UNDERGO SPECTRAL ANALYSIS USING A FULL RANGE (350 2500 NM) FIELDPORTABLE SPECTRORADIOMETER, BEFORE BEING DRIED FOR STABLE ISOTOPE ANALYSIS. SPECTRA WILL BE CONVOLVED TO MATCH THE SPECTRAL BANDWIDTHS OF A NUMBER OF REMOTE SENSORS (LANDSAT 4/5/7/8, HYPERION, WORLDVIEW 2/3), AND A PARTIAL LEAST-SQUARES REGRESSION MODELING APPROACH USED TO ASSOCIATE STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES TO MEASURED GUANO SPECTRA. PRELIMINARY ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF USING SPECTRA TO ACCURATELY PREDICT STABLE ISOTOPE VALUES. USING THIS APPROACH, A 35-YEAR TIME SERIES OF DIETARY CHANGE OVER THE WAP WILL BE CONSTRUCTED USING IMAGERY DATING BACK TO THE 1980S (BEGINNING WITH LANDSAT 4/5). THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PENGUIN DIET AND RELEVANT ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES (INCLUDING SEA ICE CONCENTRATION, NEAR-COLONY BATHYMETRY, AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY) WILL BE QUANTIFIED USING A MULTIVARIATE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH. AN ANALYSIS OF PENGUIN DIET OVER THE LAST 30+ YEARS WILL SERVE AS A KEY TEST OF THE KRILL SURPLUS HYPOTHESIS , A SCENARIO IN WHICH KRILL (A PRINCIPAL FOOD SOURCE OF PYGOSCELIS SPP. PENGUINS) AVAILABILITY TO PENGUINS HAS DECLINED NOT DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT TO THE REBOUND OF WHALE POPULATIONS (SIGNIFICANT KRILL PREDATORS) FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF INDUSTRIAL WHALING IN THE REGION. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN DIET SYNCHRONOUS WITH CHANGES IN UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAPID CHANGE IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT, RATHER THAN THE RECOVERY OF LARGE KRILL PREDATORS IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE SHIFTS IN KRILL ABUNDANCE (AND HENCE PENGUIN DIET). THIS PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEBATE REGARDING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE LARGE-SCALE ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN, IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW FOOD WEB FUNCTION AND COMPOSITION ARE IMPACTED BY RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE. AT ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL, THIS PROJECT BRIDGES THE DISCIPLINES OF REMOTE SENSING AND ECOLOGY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF HOW RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS DRIVING ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES VIA PREY AVAILABILITY IN THE ANTARCTIC A CRITICAL COMPONENT IN DEVELOPING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE UNDERSTANDING OF ANTARCTIC FOOD WEB DYNAMICS. THIS NOVEL, LOW-COST FRAMEWORK HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING FUTURE ECOLOGICAL CHANGE, AND MAY BE OF INTEREST TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGERS. THIS WORK DIRECTLY ADDRESSES NASA'S GOAL OF DETECTING CHANGES IN EARTH S ECOSYSTEMS AND SEEKS TO UNDERSTAND HOW CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT IMPACT BIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION. Funding Only Action $45.0k 6/14/17