Not listed THE GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM FACES SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES IN MEETING INCREASING DEMAND OVER THE COMING DECADES. WHILE PRODUCTION WILL NEED TO INCREASE 70-100% BY 2050 EARTH'S MOST FERTILE LANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULTIVATED 70-90% OF CONSUMED FRESHWATER IS ALREADY APPLIED TO CROPS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EXACERBATE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT FOOD PRODUCTION REGIONS. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN MEETING THESE CHALLENGES: IMAGERY IS INVALUABLE IN MAPPING CROPLANDS MONITORING RESPONSE TO WEATHER EXPOSURES AND PROVIDING CRITICAL INPUT TO PHYSICAL MODELS. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HAVE PREVENTED THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. FOR INSTANCE WHILE MAPPING CROPLANDS HAS BEEN A GOAL OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE FOR OVER FOUR DECADES CURRENT GLOBAL MAPS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ABOUT THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL EXTENT OF CROPLANDS. FURTHERMORE MAPPING CHANGE IS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH CURRENT DATASETS BECAUSE THEY ARE TYPICALLY PRODUCED FOR EPOCHS RATHER THAN ANNUALLY. TWO OUTSTANDING ISSUES HAVE LIMITED PROGRESS ON THESE PROBLEMS: 1) LACK OF HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION MAPPING APPROACHES AT THE REGIONAL- TO GLOBAL-SCALE AND 2) PERSISTENT MISSING DATA DUE TO SEASONAL CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL REGIONS. THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES RESEARCH THAT WILL ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS BY DEVELOPING IMPROVED ANALYTICAL METHODS TO COMBINE IMAGERY FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES IN A WAY THAT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL-SCALE CROPLAND DATASETS. MOREOVER WE WILL DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF THE IMPROVED CROPLAND PRODUCTS THROUGH MODELING EXPERIMENTS WHICH EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN AN IMPORTANT INLAND BASIN.THE CORE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH INVOLVES A NOVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER TO GENERATE SMOOTH CONTINUOUS TIME SERIES OF LANDSAT-SCALE VEGETATION INDICES BY COMBINING MODIS AND LANDSAT DATA. AN EXTENSION OF THESE METHODS WILL EXPLORE THE ADDITIONAL FUSION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND RADAR DATA SOURCES. THE IMAGE TIME SERIES RESULTING FROM THIS KALMAN FILTERING APPROACH WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL INPUT TO A MAPPING PROJECT WITH TWO PRIMARY GOALS: 1) PRODUCE ANNUAL MAPS OF CROPLAND EXTENT AND TYPE USING A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR THE PERIOD 2001-2015 AND 2) MAP THE ANNUAL CROPPING FREQUENCY TO CAPTURE PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION. THESE MAPS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE FULL EXTENT OF THE LAKE URMIA BASIN IN NORTHWESTERN IRAN THE CASE-STUDY SITE FOR SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION. THE AGRO-IBIS MANAGED ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION SYSTEM WILL THEN BE USED TO DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CULTIVATION PATTERNS ON THE RAPIDLY DWINDLING SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE LAKE URMIA BASIN. FURTHER CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE USED TO EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE BASIN. THUS THE ACTIVITIES DESCRIBED IN THIS PROPOSAL MAKE INNOVATIVE USE OF NASA REMOTELY SENSED ASSETS TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NASA EARTH SCIENCE STRATEGIC GOAL TO "ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE" BY "CHARACTERIZING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF SOURCES OF CHANGE AND PREDICTING HOW THE EARTH SYSTEM WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE." ($31k) 7/7/21 5 THE GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM FACES SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES IN MEETING INCREASING DEMAND OVER THE COMING DECADES. WHILE PRODUCTION WILL NEED TO INCREASE 70-100% BY 2050, EARTH'S MOST FERTILE LANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULTIVATED, 70-90% OF CONSUMED FRESHWATER IS ALREADY APPLIED TO CROPS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EXACERBATE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT FOOD PRODUCTION REGIONS. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN MEETING THESE CHALLENGES: IMAGERY IS INVALUABLE IN MAPPING CROPLANDS, MONITORING RESPONSE TO WEATHER EXPOSURES, AND PROVIDING CRITICAL INPUT TO PHYSICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HAVE PREVENTED THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. FOR INSTANCE, WHILE MAPPING CROPLANDS HAS BEEN A GOAL OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE FOR OVER FOUR DECADES, CURRENT GLOBAL MAPS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ABOUT THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL EXTENT OF CROPLANDS. FURTHERMORE, MAPPING CHANGE IS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH CURRENT DATASETS BECAUSE THEY ARE TYPICALLY PRODUCED FOR EPOCHS RATHER THAN ANNUALLY. TWO OUTSTANDING ISSUES HAVE LIMITED PROGRESS ON THESE PROBLEMS: 1) LACK OF HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION MAPPING APPROACHES AT THE REGIONAL- TO GLOBAL-SCALE, AND 2) PERSISTENT MISSING DATA DUE TO SEASONAL CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL REGIONS. THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES RESEARCH THAT WILL ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS BY DEVELOPING IMPROVED ANALYTICAL METHODS TO COMBINE IMAGERY FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES IN A WAY THAT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL-SCALE CROPLAND DATASETS. MOREOVER, WE WILL DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF THE IMPROVED CROPLAND PRODUCTS THROUGH MODELING EXPERIMENTS WHICH EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN AN IMPORTANT INLAND BASIN. THE CORE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH INVOLVES A NOVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER TO GENERATE SMOOTH, CONTINUOUS TIME SERIES OF LANDSAT-SCALE VEGETATION INDICES BY COMBINING MODIS AND LANDSAT DATA. AN EXTENSION OF THESE METHODS WILL EXPLORE THE ADDITIONAL FUSION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND RADAR DATA SOURCES. THE IMAGE TIME SERIES RESULTING FROM THIS KALMAN FILTERING APPROACH WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL INPUT TO A MAPPING PROJECT WITH TWO PRIMARY GOALS: 1) PRODUCE ANNUAL MAPS OF CROPLAND EXTENT AND TYPE USING A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR THE PERIOD 2001-2015, AND 2) MAP THE ANNUAL CROPPING FREQUENCY TO CAPTURE PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION. THESE MAPS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE FULL EXTENT OF THE LAKE URMIA BASIN IN NORTHWESTERN IRAN, THE CASE-STUDY SITE FOR SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION. THE AGRO-IBIS MANAGED ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION SYSTEM WILL THEN BE USED TO DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CULTIVATION PATTERNS ON THE RAPIDLY DWINDLING SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE LAKE URMIA BASIN. FURTHER, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE USED TO EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE BASIN. THUS, THE ACTIVITIES DESCRIBED IN THIS PROPOSAL MAKE INNOVATIVE USE OF NASA REMOTELY SENSED ASSETS TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NASA EARTH SCIENCE STRATEGIC GOAL TO "ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE" BY "CHARACTERIZING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM, IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF SOURCES OF CHANGE, AND PREDICTING HOW THE EARTH SYSTEM WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE." Funding Only Action ($31k) 7/7/21 Not listed THE GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM FACES SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES IN MEETING INCREASING DEMAND OVER THE COMING DECADES. WHILE PRODUCTION WILL NEED TO INCREASE 70-100% BY 2050 EARTH'S MOST FERTILE LANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULTIVATED 70-90% OF CONSUMED FRESHWATER IS ALREADY APPLIED TO CROPS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EXACERBATE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT FOOD PRODUCTION REGIONS. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN MEETING THESE CHALLENGES: IMAGERY IS INVALUABLE IN MAPPING CROPLANDS MONITORING RESPONSE TO WEATHER EXPOSURES AND PROVIDING CRITICAL INPUT TO PHYSICAL MODELS. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HAVE PREVENTED THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. FOR INSTANCE WHILE MAPPING CROPLANDS HAS BEEN A GOAL OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE FOR OVER FOUR DECADES CURRENT GLOBAL MAPS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ABOUT THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL EXTENT OF CROPLANDS. FURTHERMORE MAPPING CHANGE IS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH CURRENT DATASETS BECAUSE THEY ARE TYPICALLY PRODUCED FOR EPOCHS RATHER THAN ANNUALLY. TWO OUTSTANDING ISSUES HAVE LIMITED PROGRESS ON THESE PROBLEMS: 1) LACK OF HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION MAPPING APPROACHES AT THE REGIONAL- TO GLOBAL-SCALE AND 2) PERSISTENT MISSING DATA DUE TO SEASONAL CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL REGIONS. THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES RESEARCH THAT WILL ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS BY DEVELOPING IMPROVED ANALYTICAL METHODS TO COMBINE IMAGERY FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES IN A WAY THAT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL-SCALE CROPLAND DATASETS. MOREOVER WE WILL DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF THE IMPROVED CROPLAND PRODUCTS THROUGH MODELING EXPERIMENTS WHICH EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN AN IMPORTANT INLAND BASIN.THE CORE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH INVOLVES A NOVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER TO GENERATE SMOOTH CONTINUOUS TIME SERIES OF LANDSAT-SCALE VEGETATION INDICES BY COMBINING MODIS AND LANDSAT DATA. AN EXTENSION OF THESE METHODS WILL EXPLORE THE ADDITIONAL FUSION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND RADAR DATA SOURCES. THE IMAGE TIME SERIES RESULTING FROM THIS KALMAN FILTERING APPROACH WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL INPUT TO A MAPPING PROJECT WITH TWO PRIMARY GOALS: 1) PRODUCE ANNUAL MAPS OF CROPLAND EXTENT AND TYPE USING A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR THE PERIOD 2001-2015 AND 2) MAP THE ANNUAL CROPPING FREQUENCY TO CAPTURE PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION. THESE MAPS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE FULL EXTENT OF THE LAKE URMIA BASIN IN NORTHWESTERN IRAN THE CASE-STUDY SITE FOR SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION. THE AGRO-IBIS MANAGED ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION SYSTEM WILL THEN BE USED TO DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CULTIVATION PATTERNS ON THE RAPIDLY DWINDLING SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE LAKE URMIA BASIN. FURTHER CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE USED TO EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE BASIN. THUS THE ACTIVITIES DESCRIBED IN THIS PROPOSAL MAKE INNOVATIVE USE OF NASA REMOTELY SENSED ASSETS TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NASA EARTH SCIENCE STRATEGIC GOAL TO "ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE" BY "CHARACTERIZING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF SOURCES OF CHANGE AND PREDICTING HOW THE EARTH SYSTEM WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE." $0 6/16/19 4 THE GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM FACES SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES IN MEETING INCREASING DEMAND OVER THE COMING DECADES. WHILE PRODUCTION WILL NEED TO INCREASE 70-100% BY 2050, EARTH'S MOST FERTILE LANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULTIVATED, 70-90% OF CONSUMED FRESHWATER IS ALREADY APPLIED TO CROPS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EXACERBATE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT FOOD PRODUCTION REGIONS. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN MEETING THESE CHALLENGES: IMAGERY IS INVALUABLE IN MAPPING CROPLANDS, MONITORING RESPONSE TO WEATHER EXPOSURES, AND PROVIDING CRITICAL INPUT TO PHYSICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HAVE PREVENTED THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. FOR INSTANCE, WHILE MAPPING CROPLANDS HAS BEEN A GOAL OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE FOR OVER FOUR DECADES, CURRENT GLOBAL MAPS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ABOUT THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL EXTENT OF CROPLANDS. FURTHERMORE, MAPPING CHANGE IS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH CURRENT DATASETS BECAUSE THEY ARE TYPICALLY PRODUCED FOR EPOCHS RATHER THAN ANNUALLY. TWO OUTSTANDING ISSUES HAVE LIMITED PROGRESS ON THESE PROBLEMS: 1) LACK OF HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION MAPPING APPROACHES AT THE REGIONAL- TO GLOBAL-SCALE, AND 2) PERSISTENT MISSING DATA DUE TO SEASONAL CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL REGIONS. THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES RESEARCH THAT WILL ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS BY DEVELOPING IMPROVED ANALYTICAL METHODS TO COMBINE IMAGERY FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES IN A WAY THAT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL-SCALE CROPLAND DATASETS. MOREOVER, WE WILL DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF THE IMPROVED CROPLAND PRODUCTS THROUGH MODELING EXPERIMENTS WHICH EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN AN IMPORTANT INLAND BASIN. THE CORE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH INVOLVES A NOVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER TO GENERATE SMOOTH, CONTINUOUS TIME SERIES OF LANDSAT-SCALE VEGETATION INDICES BY COMBINING MODIS AND LANDSAT DATA. AN EXTENSION OF THESE METHODS WILL EXPLORE THE ADDITIONAL FUSION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND RADAR DATA SOURCES. THE IMAGE TIME SERIES RESULTING FROM THIS KALMAN FILTERING APPROACH WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL INPUT TO A MAPPING PROJECT WITH TWO PRIMARY GOALS: 1) PRODUCE ANNUAL MAPS OF CROPLAND EXTENT AND TYPE USING A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR THE PERIOD 2001-2015, AND 2) MAP THE ANNUAL CROPPING FREQUENCY TO CAPTURE PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION. THESE MAPS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE FULL EXTENT OF THE LAKE URMIA BASIN IN NORTHWESTERN IRAN, THE CASE-STUDY SITE FOR SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION. THE AGRO-IBIS MANAGED ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION SYSTEM WILL THEN BE USED TO DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CULTIVATION PATTERNS ON THE RAPIDLY DWINDLING SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE LAKE URMIA BASIN. FURTHER, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE USED TO EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE BASIN. THUS, THE ACTIVITIES DESCRIBED IN THIS PROPOSAL MAKE INNOVATIVE USE OF NASA REMOTELY SENSED ASSETS TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NASA EARTH SCIENCE STRATEGIC GOAL TO "ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE" BY "CHARACTERIZING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM, IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF SOURCES OF CHANGE, AND PREDICTING HOW THE EARTH SYSTEM WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE." Other Administrative Action $0 6/16/19 Not listed THE GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION SYSTEM FACES SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES IN MEETING INCREASING DEMAND OVER THE COMING DECADES. WHILE PRODUCTION WILL NEED TO INCREASE 70-100% BY 2050 EARTH'S MOST FERTILE LANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CULTIVATED 70-90% OF CONSUMED FRESHWATER IS ALREADY APPLIED TO CROPS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WILL EXACERBATE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT FOOD PRODUCTION REGIONS. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING HAS AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN MEETING THESE CHALLENGES: IMAGERY IS INVALUABLE IN MAPPING CROPLANDS MONITORING RESPONSE TO WEATHER EXPOSURES AND PROVIDING CRITICAL INPUT TO PHYSICAL MODELS. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES HAVE PREVENTED THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. FOR INSTANCE WHILE MAPPING CROPLANDS HAS BEEN A GOAL OF REMOTE SENSING SCIENCE FOR OVER FOUR DECADES CURRENT GLOBAL MAPS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY ABOUT THE CURRENT AND HISTORICAL EXTENT OF CROPLANDS. FURTHERMORE MAPPING CHANGE IS DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH CURRENT DATASETS BECAUSE THEY ARE TYPICALLY PRODUCED FOR EPOCHS RATHER THAN ANNUALLY. TWO OUTSTANDING ISSUES HAVE LIMITED PROGRESS ON THESE PROBLEMS: 1) LACK OF HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION MAPPING APPROACHES AT THE REGIONAL- TO GLOBAL-SCALE AND 2) PERSISTENT MISSING DATA DUE TO SEASONAL CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL REGIONS. THIS PROPOSAL DESCRIBES RESEARCH THAT WILL ADDRESS THESE PROBLEMS BY DEVELOPING IMPROVED ANALYTICAL METHODS TO COMBINE IMAGERY FROM MULTIPLE DATA SOURCES IN A WAY THAT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY IMPROVE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF REGIONAL TO GLOBAL-SCALE CROPLAND DATASETS. MOREOVER WE WILL DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF THE IMPROVED CROPLAND PRODUCTS THROUGH MODELING EXPERIMENTS WHICH EXPLORE THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN AN IMPORTANT INLAND BASIN.THE CORE OF THE PROPOSED RESEARCH INVOLVES A NOVEL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE KALMAN FILTER TO GENERATE SMOOTH CONTINUOUS TIME SERIES OF LANDSAT-SCALE VEGETATION INDICES BY COMBINING MODIS AND LANDSAT DATA. AN EXTENSION OF THESE METHODS WILL EXPLORE THE ADDITIONAL FUSION OF GEOSTATIONARY AND RADAR DATA SOURCES. THE IMAGE TIME SERIES RESULTING FROM THIS KALMAN FILTERING APPROACH WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL INPUT TO A MAPPING PROJECT WITH TWO PRIMARY GOALS: 1) PRODUCE ANNUAL MAPS OF CROPLAND EXTENT AND TYPE USING A HIERARCHICAL RANDOM FOREST METHOD FOR THE PERIOD 2001-2015 AND 2) MAP THE ANNUAL CROPPING FREQUENCY TO CAPTURE PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION. THESE MAPS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE FULL EXTENT OF THE LAKE URMIA BASIN IN NORTHWESTERN IRAN THE CASE-STUDY SITE FOR SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION. THE AGRO-IBIS MANAGED ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION SYSTEM WILL THEN BE USED TO DISENTANGLE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CULTIVATION PATTERNS ON THE RAPIDLY DWINDLING SURFACE WATER RESOURCES IN THE LAKE URMIA BASIN. FURTHER CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WILL BE USED TO EXPLORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE BASIN. THUS THE ACTIVITIES DESCRIBED IN THIS PROPOSAL MAKE INNOVATIVE USE OF NASA REMOTELY SENSED ASSETS TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NASA EARTH SCIENCE STRATEGIC GOAL TO "ADVANCE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE TO MEET THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE" BY "CHARACTERIZING CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF SOURCES OF CHANGE AND PREDICTING HOW THE EARTH SYSTEM WILL CHANGE IN THE FUTURE." $91.4k 6/20/18