Not listed A REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SATELLITE RAINFALL EXTREMES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARDS APPLICATIONS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE PMM PROPOSAL PANEL WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO REVISE OUR STATEMENT OF WORK AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED BUDGET AT A DECREASED LEVEL. BASED ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS WE WILL LIMIT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS STUDY TO ONLY CONSIDER THE LANDSLIDE ANALYSES AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHERE COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE MOST EXPERTISE AND DATA. LEVERAGING OTHER WORK THAT WAS PREVIOUS DONE IN THIS REGION WE ARE ALSO ABLE TO CONSIDER AND COMPARE THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL FOR A SELECT GROUP OF CASE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA AND COMPARE THESE AGAINST THE EMPIRICAL MODEL THAT WAS INITIALLY PROPOSED TO BE APPLIED WITHIN THIS WORK. THE MAIN GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK IS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN COMPLEX TERRAIN AND EVALUATE THE LIMITS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL HAZARDS. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL WE ARE PROPOSING THE FOLLOWING REVISED SET OF OBJECTIVES: OBJECTIVE 1DEVELOP REGIONAL-SCALE EXTREME RAINFALL METRICS BASED ON EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA). PRECIPITATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES SHARP GRADIENTS DUE TO A VARIETY OF COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED FEATURES. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPLORED FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING LANDSLIDE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL USE EVA TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIASES AND REGIONAL HETEROGENEITIES OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LEVEL 3 TRMM MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (TMPA) AND INTEGRATED MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS FOR GPM (IMERG) DATA RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM RAIN GAGES ACROSS DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES. OBJECTIVE 2 (REVISED)EVALUATE AVAILABLE LANDSLIDE EVENTS WITHIN THE NORTH CAROLINA STUDY AREA FOR THREE INSTANCES WHERE WE HAVE TMPA IMERG AND DYNAMICALLY-DOWNSCALED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM TRMM/GPM LEVEL 1 PASSIVE MICROWAVE (PMW) USING NASA UNIFIED WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (NU-WRF). WE WILL CONSIDER BOTH A PHYSICALLY-BASED LANDSLIDE MODEL (TRIGRS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS) WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY PARAMETERIZED OVER THIS REGION AND WILL TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH TRMM GPM NU-WRF AND OTHER RELEVANT IN SITU PRODUCTS (GAUGES MPE NLDAS) TO ASCERTAIN HOW THESE PRODUCTS PERFORM IN A SITE-SPECIFIC PHYSICALLYBASED LANDSLIDE MODEL. WE WILL THEN APPLY THE SAME EVALUATIONS TO A REGIONAL LANDSLIDE MODEL THAT WILL BE PARAMETRIZED FOR THIS REGION. RESULTS WILL PROVIDE SOME KEY HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL SCENARIOS TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND EMPIRICAL LANDSLIDE MODELS WITHIN THIS AREA OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE 3WE WILL ANALYZE LONG-TERM REGIONAL-SCALE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND INTENSITY THRESHOLDS (OBTAINED FROM THE EVA ANALYSIS IN OBJECTIVE 1 AND FROM THE REGIONAL EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS OBTAINED FROM OBJECTIVE 2) TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL BIASES/IMPACT OF TRMM AND GPM PERFORMANCE FOR LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING. WE WILL COMPARE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTS TO ESTABLISH METRICS THAT QUANTIFY LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL LEVERAGING ARCHIVES OF LANDSLIDE EVENTS. THESE METRICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CHARACTERIZE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES IN SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL EXTREMES ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN AS THEY RELATE TO OBSERVED HAZARD EVENTS. THIS THRESHOLD ANALYSIS WILL DEMONSTRATE THE RELATIVE SKILL AMONGST SATELLITE DATA SOURCES IN RESOLVING LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL. 0$ 12/18/19 4 A REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SATELLITE RAINFALL EXTREMES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARDS APPLICATIONS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE PMM PROPOSAL PANEL WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO REVISE OUR STATEMENT OF WORK AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED BUDGET AT A DECREASED LEVEL. BASED ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS, WE WILL LIMIT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS STUDY TO ONLY CONSIDER THE LANDSLIDE ANALYSES AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE MOST EXPERTISE AND DATA. LEVERAGING OTHER WORK THAT WAS PREVIOUS DONE IN THIS REGION, WE ARE ALSO ABLE TO CONSIDER AND COMPARE THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL FOR A SELECT GROUP OF CASE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA AND COMPARE THESE AGAINST THE EMPIRICAL MODEL THAT WAS INITIALLY PROPOSED TO BE APPLIED WITHIN THIS WORK. THE MAIN GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK IS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN COMPLEX TERRAIN AND EVALUATE THE LIMITS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL HAZARDS. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL WE ARE PROPOSING THE FOLLOWING REVISED SET OF OBJECTIVES: OBJECTIVE 1DEVELOP REGIONAL-SCALE EXTREME RAINFALL METRICS BASED ON EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA). PRECIPITATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES SHARP GRADIENTS DUE TO A VARIETY OF COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED FEATURES. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPLORED FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING LANDSLIDE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL USE EVA TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIASES AND REGIONAL HETEROGENEITIES OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LEVEL 3 TRMM MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (TMPA) AND INTEGRATED MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS FOR GPM (IMERG) DATA RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM RAIN GAGES ACROSS DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES. OBJECTIVE 2 (REVISED)EVALUATE AVAILABLE LANDSLIDE EVENTS WITHIN THE NORTH CAROLINA STUDY AREA FOR THREE INSTANCES WHERE WE HAVE TMPA, IMERG AND DYNAMICALLY-DOWNSCALED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM TRMM/GPM LEVEL 1 PASSIVE MICROWAVE (PMW) USING NASA UNIFIED WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (NU-WRF). WE WILL CONSIDER BOTH A PHYSICALLY-BASED LANDSLIDE MODEL (TRIGRS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS) WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY PARAMETERIZED OVER THIS REGION AND WILL TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH TRMM, GPM, NU-WRF AND OTHER RELEVANT IN SITU PRODUCTS (GAUGES, MPE, NLDAS) TO ASCERTAIN HOW THESE PRODUCTS PERFORM IN A SITE-SPECIFIC, PHYSICALLYBASED LANDSLIDE MODEL. WE WILL THEN APPLY THE SAME EVALUATIONS TO A REGIONAL LANDSLIDE MODEL THAT WILL BE PARAMETRIZED FOR THIS REGION. RESULTS WILL PROVIDE SOME KEY HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL SCENARIOS TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND EMPIRICAL LANDSLIDE MODELS WITHIN THIS AREA OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE 3WE WILL ANALYZE LONG-TERM REGIONAL-SCALE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND INTENSITY THRESHOLDS (OBTAINED FROM THE EVA ANALYSIS IN OBJECTIVE 1 AND FROM THE REGIONAL EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS OBTAINED FROM OBJECTIVE 2) TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL BIASES/IMPACT OF TRMM AND GPM PERFORMANCE FOR LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING. WE WILL COMPARE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTS TO ESTABLISH METRICS THAT QUANTIFY LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL, LEVERAGING ARCHIVES OF LANDSLIDE EVENTS. THESE METRICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CHARACTERIZE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES IN SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL EXTREMES ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN AS THEY RELATE TO OBSERVED HAZARD EVENTS. THIS THRESHOLD ANALYSIS WILL DEMONSTRATE THE RELATIVE SKILL AMONGST SATELLITE DATA SOURCES IN RESOLVING LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL. Funding Only Action 0$ 12/18/19 3 A REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SATELLITE RAINFALL EXTREMES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARDS APPLICATIONS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE PMM PROPOSAL PANEL WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO REVISE OUR STATEMENT OF WORK AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED BUDGET AT A DECREASED LEVEL. BASED ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS, WE WILL LIMIT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS STUDY TO ONLY CONSIDER THE LANDSLIDE ANALYSES AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE MOST EXPERTISE AND DATA. LEVERAGING OTHER WORK THAT WAS PREVIOUS DONE IN THIS REGION, WE ARE ALSO ABLE TO CONSIDER AND COMPARE THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL FOR A SELECT GROUP OF CASE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA AND COMPARE THESE AGAINST THE EMPIRICAL MODEL THAT WAS INITIALLY PROPOSED TO BE APPLIED WITHIN THIS WORK. THE MAIN GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK IS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN COMPLEX TERRAIN AND EVALUATE THE LIMITS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL HAZARDS. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL WE ARE PROPOSING THE FOLLOWING REVISED SET OF OBJECTIVES: OBJECTIVE 1DEVELOP REGIONAL-SCALE EXTREME RAINFALL METRICS BASED ON EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA). PRECIPITATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES SHARP GRADIENTS DUE TO A VARIETY OF COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED FEATURES. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPLORED FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING LANDSLIDE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL USE EVA TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIASES AND REGIONAL HETEROGENEITIES OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LEVEL 3 TRMM MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (TMPA) AND INTEGRATED MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS FOR GPM (IMERG) DATA RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM RAIN GAGES ACROSS DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES. OBJECTIVE 2 (REVISED)EVALUATE AVAILABLE LANDSLIDE EVENTS WITHIN THE NORTH CAROLINA STUDY AREA FOR THREE INSTANCES WHERE WE HAVE TMPA, IMERG AND DYNAMICALLY-DOWNSCALED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM TRMM/GPM LEVEL 1 PASSIVE MICROWAVE (PMW) USING NASA UNIFIED WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (NU-WRF). WE WILL CONSIDER BOTH A PHYSICALLY-BASED LANDSLIDE MODEL (TRIGRS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS) WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY PARAMETERIZED OVER THIS REGION AND WILL TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH TRMM, GPM, NU-WRF AND OTHER RELEVANT IN SITU PRODUCTS (GAUGES, MPE, NLDAS) TO ASCERTAIN HOW THESE PRODUCTS PERFORM IN A SITE-SPECIFIC, PHYSICALLYBASED LANDSLIDE MODEL. WE WILL THEN APPLY THE SAME EVALUATIONS TO A REGIONAL LANDSLIDE MODEL THAT WILL BE PARAMETRIZED FOR THIS REGION. RESULTS WILL PROVIDE SOME KEY HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL SCENARIOS TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND EMPIRICAL LANDSLIDE MODELS WITHIN THIS AREA OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE 3WE WILL ANALYZE LONG-TERM REGIONAL-SCALE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND INTENSITY THRESHOLDS (OBTAINED FROM THE EVA ANALYSIS IN OBJECTIVE 1 AND FROM THE REGIONAL EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS OBTAINED FROM OBJECTIVE 2) TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL BIASES/IMPACT OF TRMM AND GPM PERFORMANCE FOR LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING. WE WILL COMPARE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTS TO ESTABLISH METRICS THAT QUANTIFY LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL, LEVERAGING ARCHIVES OF LANDSLIDE EVENTS. THESE METRICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CHARACTERIZE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES IN SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL EXTREMES ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN AS THEY RELATE TO OBSERVED HAZARD EVENTS. THIS THRESHOLD ANALYSIS WILL DEMONSTRATE THE RELATIVE SKILL AMONGST SATELLITE DATA SOURCES IN RESOLVING LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL. Other Administrative Action $0 3/12/19 Not listed A REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SATELLITE RAINFALL EXTREMES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARDS APPLICATIONS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE PMM PROPOSAL PANEL WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO REVISE OUR STATEMENT OF WORK AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED BUDGET AT A DECREASED LEVEL. BASED ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS WE WILL LIMIT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS STUDY TO ONLY CONSIDER THE LANDSLIDE ANALYSES AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHERE COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE MOST EXPERTISE AND DATA. LEVERAGING OTHER WORK THAT WAS PREVIOUS DONE IN THIS REGION WE ARE ALSO ABLE TO CONSIDER AND COMPARE THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL FOR A SELECT GROUP OF CASE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA AND COMPARE THESE AGAINST THE EMPIRICAL MODEL THAT WAS INITIALLY PROPOSED TO BE APPLIED WITHIN THIS WORK. THE MAIN GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK IS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN COMPLEX TERRAIN AND EVALUATE THE LIMITS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL HAZARDS. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL WE ARE PROPOSING THE FOLLOWING REVISED SET OF OBJECTIVES: OBJECTIVE 1DEVELOP REGIONAL-SCALE EXTREME RAINFALL METRICS BASED ON EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA). PRECIPITATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES SHARP GRADIENTS DUE TO A VARIETY OF COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED FEATURES. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPLORED FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING LANDSLIDE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL USE EVA TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIASES AND REGIONAL HETEROGENEITIES OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LEVEL 3 TRMM MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (TMPA) AND INTEGRATED MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS FOR GPM (IMERG) DATA RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM RAIN GAGES ACROSS DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES. OBJECTIVE 2 (REVISED)EVALUATE AVAILABLE LANDSLIDE EVENTS WITHIN THE NORTH CAROLINA STUDY AREA FOR THREE INSTANCES WHERE WE HAVE TMPA IMERG AND DYNAMICALLY-DOWNSCALED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM TRMM/GPM LEVEL 1 PASSIVE MICROWAVE (PMW) USING NASA UNIFIED WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (NU-WRF). WE WILL CONSIDER BOTH A PHYSICALLY-BASED LANDSLIDE MODEL (TRIGRS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS) WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY PARAMETERIZED OVER THIS REGION AND WILL TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH TRMM GPM NU-WRF AND OTHER RELEVANT IN SITU PRODUCTS (GAUGES MPE NLDAS) TO ASCERTAIN HOW THESE PRODUCTS PERFORM IN A SITE-SPECIFIC PHYSICALLYBASED LANDSLIDE MODEL. WE WILL THEN APPLY THE SAME EVALUATIONS TO A REGIONAL LANDSLIDE MODEL THAT WILL BE PARAMETRIZED FOR THIS REGION. RESULTS WILL PROVIDE SOME KEY HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL SCENARIOS TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND EMPIRICAL LANDSLIDE MODELS WITHIN THIS AREA OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE 3WE WILL ANALYZE LONG-TERM REGIONAL-SCALE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND INTENSITY THRESHOLDS (OBTAINED FROM THE EVA ANALYSIS IN OBJECTIVE 1 AND FROM THE REGIONAL EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS OBTAINED FROM OBJECTIVE 2) TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL BIASES/IMPACT OF TRMM AND GPM PERFORMANCE FOR LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING. WE WILL COMPARE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTS TO ESTABLISH METRICS THAT QUANTIFY LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL LEVERAGING ARCHIVES OF LANDSLIDE EVENTS. THESE METRICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CHARACTERIZE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES IN SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL EXTREMES ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN AS THEY RELATE TO OBSERVED HAZARD EVENTS. THIS THRESHOLD ANALYSIS WILL DEMONSTRATE THE RELATIVE SKILL AMONGST SATELLITE DATA SOURCES IN RESOLVING LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL. $0 3/12/19 Not listed A REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING SATELLITE RAINFALL EXTREMES IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARDS APPLICATIONS BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE PMM PROPOSAL PANEL WE HAVE BEEN ASKED TO REVISE OUR STATEMENT OF WORK AND PROVIDE AN UPDATED BUDGET AT A DECREASED LEVEL. BASED ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS WE WILL LIMIT THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THIS STUDY TO ONLY CONSIDER THE LANDSLIDE ANALYSES AND PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CAROLINA WHERE COLLECTIVELY WE HAVE THE MOST EXPERTISE AND DATA. LEVERAGING OTHER WORK THAT WAS PREVIOUS DONE IN THIS REGION WE ARE ALSO ABLE TO CONSIDER AND COMPARE THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF A PHYSICALLY-BASED MODEL FOR A SELECT GROUP OF CASE STUDIES WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA AND COMPARE THESE AGAINST THE EMPIRICAL MODEL THAT WAS INITIALLY PROPOSED TO BE APPLIED WITHIN THIS WORK. THE MAIN GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK IS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN COMPLEX TERRAIN AND EVALUATE THE LIMITS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITES WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF NATURAL HAZARDS. TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL WE ARE PROPOSING THE FOLLOWING REVISED SET OF OBJECTIVES: OBJECTIVE 1DEVELOP REGIONAL-SCALE EXTREME RAINFALL METRICS BASED ON EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS (EVA). PRECIPITATION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN FEATURES SHARP GRADIENTS DUE TO A VARIETY OF COMPLEX AND INTERRELATED FEATURES. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPLORED FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING LANDSLIDE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL USE EVA TO CHARACTERIZE THE BIASES AND REGIONAL HETEROGENEITIES OF EXTREME RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LEVEL 3 TRMM MULTISATELLITE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS (TMPA) AND INTEGRATED MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS FOR GPM (IMERG) DATA RELATIVE TO LONG-TERM RAIN GAGES ACROSS DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES. OBJECTIVE 2 (REVISED)EVALUATE AVAILABLE LANDSLIDE EVENTS WITHIN THE NORTH CAROLINA STUDY AREA FOR THREE INSTANCES WHERE WE HAVE TMPA IMERG AND DYNAMICALLY-DOWNSCALED RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM TRMM/GPM LEVEL 1 PASSIVE MICROWAVE (PMW) USING NASA UNIFIED WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (NU-WRF). WE WILL CONSIDER BOTH A PHYSICALLY-BASED LANDSLIDE MODEL (TRIGRS DEVELOPED BY THE USGS) WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY PARAMETERIZED OVER THIS REGION AND WILL TEST THE PERFORMANCE OF BOTH TRMM GPM NU-WRF AND OTHER RELEVANT IN SITU PRODUCTS (GAUGES MPE NLDAS) TO ASCERTAIN HOW THESE PRODUCTS PERFORM IN A SITE-SPECIFIC PHYSICALLYBASED LANDSLIDE MODEL. WE WILL THEN APPLY THE SAME EVALUATIONS TO A REGIONAL LANDSLIDE MODEL THAT WILL BE PARAMETRIZED FOR THIS REGION. RESULTS WILL PROVIDE SOME KEY HIGH RESOLUTION RAINFALL SCENARIOS TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH PHYSICAL AND EMPIRICAL LANDSLIDE MODELS WITHIN THIS AREA OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE 3WE WILL ANALYZE LONG-TERM REGIONAL-SCALE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND INTENSITY THRESHOLDS (OBTAINED FROM THE EVA ANALYSIS IN OBJECTIVE 1 AND FROM THE REGIONAL EMPIRICAL RAINFALL THRESHOLDS OBTAINED FROM OBJECTIVE 2) TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL BIASES/IMPACT OF TRMM AND GPM PERFORMANCE FOR LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING. WE WILL COMPARE THE EXTREME RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL OUTPUTS TO ESTABLISH METRICS THAT QUANTIFY LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL LEVERAGING ARCHIVES OF LANDSLIDE EVENTS. THESE METRICS WILL ALSO HELP TO CHARACTERIZE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES IN SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL EXTREMES ACROSS COMPLEX TERRAIN AS THEY RELATE TO OBSERVED HAZARD EVENTS. THIS THRESHOLD ANALYSIS WILL DEMONSTRATE THE RELATIVE SKILL AMONGST SATELLITE DATA SOURCES IN RESOLVING LANDSLIDE TRIGGERING RAINFALL. $57.0k 11/23/18