Omega modeling

***NOAA'S ACQUISITION & GRANTS OFFICE, WESTERN ACQUISITION DIVISION-BOULDER, NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE (NMFS), SOUTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER (SWFSC), FISHERIES RESOURCES DIVISION (FRD) INTENDS TO NEGOTIATE, ON A SOLE SOURCE BASIS, UNDER AUTHORITY OF FAR 13.106-1(b)(1), WITH ICF INCORPORATED LLC, OUT OF FAIRFAX, VA, FOR OMEGA MODELING ANALYSIS. ICF IS THE ORIGINAL DEVELOPER OF THE OMEGA MODEL FOR NOAA. OMEGA IS THE ONLY PROPRIETARY COMPANY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND ASSIST WITH THIS MODELING.

This work entails continuing OMEGA model development and also providing necessary support for ongoing and new aquaculture permitting processes with the following tasks: conducting general risk analyses to support Aquaculture Opportunity Area (AOA) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statements (PEISs) planned for the Gulf of Mexico and Southern California, and for subsequent AOAs; conducting modeling for NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) analyses to predict scale and frequency of aquaculture escapement/dispersal and predict escapee impacts on the fitness and genetic diversity of wild conspecific populations for individual proposed aquaculture finfish or macroalgae operations across the U.S.; developing and applying a regional species-specific aquaculture industry capacity analysis of fish escapes for select species with a high likelihood of development of aquaculture operations; developing and applying a qualitative decision tree screening tool that would be used to determine if aquaculture operation applicants would require additional escape risk assessment.

ICF is the original developer of the OMEGA model for NOAA. OMEGA Version 1.0 was developed in 2012 to evaluate the relative risks and benefits of alternative culture strategies to help balance aquaculture with conservation goals. In 2018, ICF produced a sensitivity analysis of the model and an accompanying draft report. The report included recommendations for scenario development using uncertainty analysis in a risk assessment context. As an extension of this work, ICF, in coordination with NOAA, developed aquaculture model scenarios for several marine candidate marine species in the Gulf of Mexico. As part of projects, operating from 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022, ICF and NOAA were working to compile species data sets for additional marine fish under consideration for sets for additional marine fish under consideration for aquaculture development in the U.S., and to expand model capacity to address additional escapement complexities and different organisms. In 2022-2023, ICF and NOAA were providing analytical modeling results to inform the NEPA process for evaluation of a potential offshore aquaculture project. The OMEGA model and user guide are publicly available on the NOAA Fisheries web site, and is freely available for download. Since posting the model online, the ICF development team has consulted with interested parties on development of model scenarios for various cultured species. ICF has conducted all OMEGA model scenario development done to date in the context of applications to commercial aquaculture. The current work, in this package, expands on the current model applications to evaluate escapement risk for permitting applications. To date, only the model developers at ICF, which developed the OMEGA model, have conducted model adjustments/improvements to this model. Their expertise will be required to make the adjustments and expansions, and provide the analyses detailed in the statement of work. The work contained is this package would rely on the particular expertise of the OMEGA model developers, and could not be SUCCESSFUL WITHOUT THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE MODEL’S DEVELOPERS.

***THIS NOTICE OF INTENT IS NOT A REQUEST FOR COMPETITIVE PROPOSALS AND NO SOLICITATION PACKAGE IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, FIRMS THAT BELIEVE THEY CAN FULLY MEET THE GOVERNMENT'S REQUIREMENTS MAY SUBMIT SUBSTANTIATING DOCUMENTATION IN WRITING TO THE IDENTIFIED POINT OF CONTACT WITHIN 15 DAYS AFTER PUBLICATION OF THIS SYNOPSIS. SUCH DOCUMENTATION WILL BE EVALUATED SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT TO CONDUCT THIS PROCUREMENT ON A COMPETITIVE BASIS. A DETERMINATION BY THE GOVERNMENT NOT TO CONDUCT A COMPETITIVE PROCUREMENT, BASED UPON RESPONSES TO THIS NOTICE, IS SOLELY WITHIN THE DISCRETION OF THE GOVERNMENT. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE IN RESPONSE TO THIS NOTICE.