Synopsis_UCROP ESP Forecasts_3.pdf

Pre-Solicitation Notice

NAICS: 541990

PSC: B529

The Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Region, has a need to acquire contractor services to refine and recalibrate an existing natural-flow hydrologic forecast model, the Upper Rio Grande Hydrologic Model, which is being used by the West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) to develop Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) hydrologic forecasts for the Upper Rio Grande.

The model includes a total of 107 sub-basins within the Upper Rio Grande watershed.

The prospective contractor will update the model, provided by the Government, to include all relevant data through the end of Water Year 2020, and use these data, along with data assembled during the previous calibration, as appropriate, to update the calibration of the model. The duration of the calibration period will span from 1980 to 2020. The Upper Rio Grande basin hydrologic model was last calibrated in the 2009-2010 period to a 1980 to 2007/2008 record.

The Pecos basin hydrologic model was last calibrated to the 1980-2011 record. Since the previous calibration periods, approximately 13 years of new climate record has accumulated for the Rio Grande and approximately 9 years has accumulated for the Pecos.

The anticipated contract will be completed in phases (base period with three option periods)

Tasks each option year / phase of the project:

1. Compile necessary data Under Task 1, the following activities will be performed:

• Acquisition and analysis of historical streamflow, diversion, return, inter-basin transfer, and reservoir elevation/storage/outflow data as necessary to accommodate the hydrologic model.

• Conversion of these data into a 6-hourly naturalflow-based historical time series, if necessary.

• Development of 6-hourly time series of mean aerial precipitation and temperature from observing stations.

For each option year/phase of the contract, the Contractor shall collect the available historical streamflow data and review it for completeness and accuracy. The Contractor shall also collect and review historical data as it applies to reservoir operations, diversions and returns, inter-basin transfers, irrigation practices, etc., as necessary to generate 6-hourly “naturalized” streamflow time series which will be used for hydrologic model calibration. Flow forecasts based on regulated streamflows will not be an objective of this calibration project as the development of appropriate reservoir models is not covered under this project plan.

The Contractor shall develop historical mean areal temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP) 6-hourly time series required to force the hydrologic model. The Contractor shall inventory available temperature and precipitation station data and review it for completeness and accuracy.

Consistency checks will be performed on station data, and corrections made to ensure long-term data consistency. In mountainous areas where elevation has a major influence on temperature and precipitation, the Contractor will calibrate using existing model elevation zones. The required historical data will be developed to allow model calibration for the approximate period of Water Years 1980–2020.

The Contractor shall develop monthly climatological potential evapotranspiration (PET) values using the Penman-Monteith method. These are a commonly used static input to the Sac-SMA model. Data used to calculate the PET will be derived from representative weather and climate recording stations in the vicinity of the basin to be calibrated.

The Contractor shall perform a water balance analysis of the basins to identify data quality issues.

2. Recalibrate model locations Under Task 2, the following activities will be performed:

• Calculation of 6-hourly simulated natural flow hydrographs at each location for the appropriate phase of the project.

• Development of model parameters for SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and UNIT-HG models for the locations appropriate for the phase of the project. To the extent that they are needed, calibration parameters for other necessary supporting (typically minor) NWS-RFS routines such as RSNELEV, CHANLOSS, CONSUSE will also be included here (and in the associated deliverables).

• Development of LAG/K routing parameters for applicable reaches.

• Calibration of all hydrologic model parameters to 6-hourly natural flow at the basin outlets.

The Prospective contractor shall develop 6-hourly unit hydrographs (UHGs) using established GIS methods or observed data, when it is necessary to update existing UHG values. The Contractor shall perform calibration of the SNOW-17 and SAC-SMA model parameters for the headwater sub-basins and local sub-basins as specified in Appendix A-1 for each option year/phase of the project. In addition, LAG/K routing parameters will be calibrated for all downstream locations, identified at Local Areas in Appendix A-1. The unit hydrograph ordinates calculated by the Contractor will also be verified during the calibration process.

3. Communication The contractor will keep Reclamation and the WGRFC abreast of progress on this project through monthly conference calls, as described in more detail in the deliverables section, below.

4. Reporting The Contractor shall provide Quarterly progress reports as well as Draft and Final reports for each option year/phase of the project.

5. Deliverables For each option year/phase of the project, the contractor will complete all tasks as described above, and provide the following deliverables to Reclamation and the WGRFC:

• Compiled calibration data (any data, such as streamflow or SWE, that was created or compiled during the calibration process and that could be used to recreate or redevelop the calibration) for water years 1980 to 2020, in a 6-hour time series format.

o A list of the stations used in the MAP/MAT, along with the weights assigned to each station in the calibration process. Data will be delivered in a geospatial format.

o A minimum of 40 years of collected and quality-controlled historical data used to account for any significant regulation and diversions within the study area.

o A minimum of 40 years of collected and quality-controlled historical and

“naturalized” streamflow data for each gauge location to be calibrated.

o A minimum of 40 years of quality controlled unbiased precipitation and temperature data for continuous reporting stations in the study area.

o A minimum of 40 years of computed Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) and Mean

Areal Temperature (MAT) for each area.

• Final calibrated hydrologic model, and supporting models.

o For each phase of the project, the final calibration will be delivered as a Community Hydrologic Prediction (CHPS) Stand-Alone model, containing fully calibrated supporting hydrologic models, including SNOW-17, SAC-SMA, and UNIT-HG for the sub-basins in Appendix A-1 for the appropriate phase. The final calibration model will be delivered as a CHPS stand-alone model including ModuleParFiles, ColdStateFiles, and Forecast and UpdateStates workflows in the same format as delivered to the contractor by WGRFC. Calibrated channel routing parameters will also be provided where appropriate.

• Notes from monthly progress meetings hosted by the contractor, and quarterly progress reports.

• Draft and final project reports.

NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (NAICS)

Under this procurement is as follows:

• 541990 - All Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Anticipated Solicitation Date: March 1, 2021