SOLCI1600007_PWS_Final.docx

ATTACHMENT 1

PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF MOBILE SOURCE FUELS, EMISSIONS AND METHODS OF CONTROL

Background The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) is responsible for carrying out the assessment and regulatory responsibilities identified in the Clean Air Act (including CAA sections 202, 211, 213, and 231). The EPA OTAQ also conducts a range of voluntary and initiative-based measures to evaluate and mitigate the impacts of mobile source emissions. In order to effectively carry out this mission, the EPA OTAQ continues to require contractor support for a variety of technical analyses and support activities identified in the following tasks.

TASK 1: FUELS/ENERGY ANALYSES

Task 1a. Energy Sector Modeling - Initial Production

(i) Petroleum Production Including Tar Sands The contractor shall assess the various factors which affect crude oil and tar sands production costs, and the greenhouse gases (GHG) and other pollutants emitted at production sites and during transport to refineries. Factors that shall be considered include: 1) production levels and their trends; 2) reserves; 3) production methods (primary, secondary, and tertiary), including water, natural gas and carbon dioxide inputs and outputs, and energy expended; 4) petroleum/water separation; 5) natural gas coproduction, whether the natural gas is reinjected, flared, or vented, and captured for sale; and 6) well depth and horizontal distance. For tar sands, the contractor shall assess the production costs for mined versus in situ production technologies, including any emerging tar sands production technologies, and the impacts of upgrading that may occur at the production site.

(ii) Biomass Production and Harvesting The contractor shall assess new technologies that may allow for more efficient harvests, such as single pass harvest. The contractor shall provide information on sustainable removal rates, farmer payments, and abandoned crop land. The contractor shall investigate the potential for biomass to become a commodity, and the production and harvesting costs associated with different crops.

Task 1b. Energy Sector Modeling - Downstream Production and Storage

(i) Refinery Modeling Refinery modeling may be needed to estimate the impacts of regulatory programs related to such issues as antibacksliding, low Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), sulfur control, biofuels, low carbon fuel, and aviation gasoline. The contractor shall assess the costs and other impacts of changes to gasoline quality, such as lower RVP and lower sulfur levels, and changes to diesel fuel quality. The contractor shall determine how the blending of biofuels into gasoline and diesel fuel impacts their quality and production costs. The contractor shall run an established refinery cost model to complete this work, or create a spreadsheet cost model which can accomplish the same tasks, but in a way that improves upon the capabilities of a refinery cost model. If a spreadsheet model is created by the contractor, the contractor shall establish a peer review process to review the spreadsheet model.

(ii) Biofuels/Biogas Production for Cost and Efficiency (Aspen Modeling) The contractor shall assess the production costs of specified biofuel production processes. This shall involve detailed modeling of each process (Aspen Modeling) to ensure that the mass and energy inputs and outputs of each process are balanced. The contractor shall assess the likely costs and plant efficiencies for the technologies being assessed, which includes projecting the likely areas of process improvements over time, and reassessing the energy balance and production costs with the projected process improvements.

Task 1c. Fuel Distribution Costs

(i) Petroleum-based Fuels The contractor shall analyze the impacts on distribution practices and costs for several potential changes to petroleum fuels. The contractor shall analyze the savings in fuel distribution costs (pipeline and other fuel freight costs, storage/segregation costs, reduced tankage requirements), as well as the fuel shortages and price spikes in response to refinery outages, if the number of fuel grades is reduced. The contractor shall assess the transmix production volumes, transmix processing, and the distribution of the product produced by transmix processors as the transmix fuel is returned to market. The contractor shall analyze how aviation fuel is distributed to end users. The contractor shall assess how the inclusion of biofuels in aviation gasoline impacts practices and the costs of the distribution of aviation fuel. The contractor shall also assess the potential impacts on the distribution of aviation gasoline if the use of lead additives to meet minimum octane specification is reduced or no longer needed. The contractor shall analyze the impacts of regulating jet fuel sulfur on distribution practices and costs.

(ii) Feedstocks The contractor shall analyze the means for distributing biofuel feedstocks and their byproducts to markets, or to potential markets. The contractor shall analyze the associated distribution costs and resulting storage needs.

(iii) Biofuels The contractor shall determine the means and assess the costs associated with the transport and storage of biofuels, and the impact on petroleum pipelines if the biofuels are distributed using the same pipeline. The contractor shall assess potential impacts on the distribution system and on fuel prices if there were a shortage of biofuels, and in case the biofuels must be blended with petroleum-based fuels to produce finished motor vehicle fuels. The contractor shall identify ways to minimize the impact of shortages of biofuels which must be blended with petroleum fuels to produce a finished motor vehicle fuel on the availability and price of finished motor fuels. The contractor shall assess how biofuels impact the processing and disposition of transmix that contain biofuels.

The contractor shall identify which high volatility blendstocks could be blended with ethanol to produce E85 that complies with the ASTM volatility standards. In addition, the contractor shall identify the source of, and analyze the distribution and storage impacts associated with, these high volatility blendstocks. The contractor shall analyze the potential economic and other impacts on retail fuel distribution systems when additional biofuel blends are introduced.

Task 1d Fuel Blending - Biofuels With Conventional Fuels The contractor shall analyze the fuel qualities of biofuels (e.g., cold operability, lubricity, fuel stability/oxidation, contamination from biological growth), and how those qualities will affect blends of biofuels and conventional fuels. The contractor shall identify means, such as the use of additives and other measures, to alleviate any undesirable effects that result when biofuels are blended with conventional fuels. The contractor shall assess from production to end use whether biofuels and biofuel/conventional fuel blends are compatible with materials used in fuel distribution systems. The contractor shall also identify the changes which a particular fuel distribution system may require to accommodate the introduction of such blends. The contractor shall analyze the potential economic and other impacts on fuel distribution systems if additional types of gasoline blendstocks for oxygenate blending are needed to manufacture finished gasoline-ethanol blends.

Task 1e. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) The contractor shall analyze the current status of international, national, and state regulations relating to aspects of CCS (CO2 capture, transport, storage, monitoring, land ownership issues, liability, etc.). The contractor shall analyze the status of carbon capture technologies and methods, the costs of CO2 capture, the logistics of CO2 transportation, and issues regarding geologic sequestration (cost, confidence in long term storage, possible environmental impacts, etc.). The contractor shall also analyze alternative methods for CO2 storage and use.

Task 1f. Biofuel Industry Characterization The contractor shall perform literature searches of journals, government reports, press releases, and other credible sources to better understand the advanced biofuel industry.

The focus shall be on North American production of cellulosic ethanol, biomass-based diesel, algae-based biodiesel, and other second-generation biofuels that do not rely on corn or edible food oils. The contractor shall provide the EPA with access to a database containing up-to-date information on companies pursuing advanced biofuels and their facility-by-facility production plans.

Task 1g. Jet Fuel Sulfur The contractor shall conduct assessments related to sulfur in jet fuel, including current sulfur content, technology, cost for reduction or removal, and impacts on refining.

Task 1h: Analysis of Mobile Source Electrification Impacts On The Electric Power Sector The contractor shall perform modeling and analyses of the impacts of electrical vehicle charging, electrification of docked C3 marine vessels, and other possible mobile source electrification initiatives on the U.S. electric power sector

TASK 2: LIGHT-DUTY AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES ANALYSES

Task 2a. Cost Analysis of Regulatory Strategies/Equipment The contractor shall determine the costs on an absolute basis, dollar-per-ton of emission reduction basis, or other approved metric, for any possible regulatory strategy involving vehicle/engine emission control regulations. The contractor shall determine both costs and benefits, and perform the analyses for the topics set forth below:

(1) Emission control component production costs, including cost of materials, direct labor, indirect labor and over-head, facilities costs, storage/shipping costs, and profit;

(2) Research, development, and design costs;

(3) Testing costs, including design prototype, certification, or health effects testing;

(4) Capital investment costs, including depreciation and opportunity costs resulting from an inability to invest in other capital goods;

(5) Costs or benefits to the consumer, including changes in initial price, operating and maintenance costs, vehicle attributes, or vehicle safety, and the effects of changes in vehicle characteristics on consumer welfare;

(6) Gains or losses in work hours of labor due to changes in regulatory requirements or health effects;

(7) Costs or benefits of welfare effects, e.g., gains or losses in visibility or deterioration of natural/manufactured materials;

(8) Costs/benefits from control of regulated and unregulated pollutants, including the costs/benefits of other than the primary objective of the regulatory strategy;

(9) Social welfare costs and benefits;

(10) Calculation of costs and benefits on regional, local, and national levels, and other assessments of distributional impacts (e.g., low-income households or environmentally sensitive populations).

(11) Shifts in modes of transportation associated with regulations, including driver shifts to public transportation and/or autonomous vehicles and freight transport;

(12) Barriers to adoption of fuel-saving technologies.

Task 2b. Vehicle Cost Analyses The contractor shall assess technology costs for reducing GHG and other pollutants from light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles, and non-road equipment. The contractor shall analyze factors such as component tear-down, materials, component costs (e.g., raw materials and manufacturing costs), and the potential for future improvements in manufacturing methods and component integration.

Task 2c. Safety Analyses of Emission Control Strategies and Equipment The contractor shall assess the safety impacts of possible vehicle or fuel-related operating characteristics, or emission control strategies. This task includes the assessment of both the risks (or hazards) and benefits (or improvements) posed by the vehicle operating strategy or the emission control strategy to the specific vehicle, other vehicles, or the public, as required. Work assignments will specify whether the specified risk/hazard assessment shall be qualitative or quantitative, and whether it involves assessing either absolute or relative risk. The contractor shall perform any of several generally accepted risk/hazard analysis methodologies, including Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Worst Case Scenario Analysis (WCSA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA).

The contractor shall generate analyses data for full vehicle or component effects through suitable testing activities or the gathering of statistical accident, failure, or other relevant data. The contractor shall utilize available general accident and failure data, including the following data sources: National Accident Sampling System (NASS), Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS), and National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS), as well as National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recall data, Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS), technical service bulletins, and owner complaint files.

Examples of potential emission control strategies to be assessed include vehicle fuel and evaporative system designs, refueling emission control systems, running loss control systems, catalytic converters, diesel particulate control devices, new or modified propulsion systems, and vehicle weight reductions targeted toward lower emissions or increased fuel economy. In addition to the above technical and analytical services, the contractor shall conduct testing programs to assess fire or other safety risks related to emissions, fuel systems, or fuel modifications. Normally, this involves components of the vehicle directly related to the fuel/emission control system for both conventional and alternative fuels. The contractor shall provide additional assessments, which include a variety of crash/noncrash ignition sources, as well as all aspects of vehicle usage.

Task 2d. Vehicle Safety Analyses The contractor shall provide statistical analyses of vehicle crash safety using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data and data from individual states.

Task 2e. Vehicle Mass Reduction and Systems Integration [The contractor shall assist both directly and indirectly to support light duty vehicle mass reduction research feasible within the time frame of light duty vehicles being produced for model years 2017 to 2025. Tasks may include but are not limited to:

a. Additional literature searches and reviews, as well as independent evaluations of existing and new reports.

b. Peer review of research papers or projects by both the EPA and other authors. These reports may consider design architecture reviews, material and manufacturing processes, and complete system and subsystem costs. Assessment of cost effective and feasible mass reduction for discrete vehicle systems such as, but not limited to, Body in White (BIW), closures, chassis, interior, electrical, and glazing.

c. Discussion, consultation, and summarization of available information from industry experts, academia, and component and vehicle manufacturers in support of rulemaking efforts regarding feasible mass reduction.

d. Analyze and quantify the statistical safety effects of reducing mass from a statistical fatality point of view, through analysis of historical state and national traffic accident data.

e. Analyze and quantify the societal and vehicle category safety effects of reducing mass from an engineering point of view. Support these analyses with crashworthiness evaluation using computer simulation of BIW and closure systems for existing and new vehicle designs. The contractor may use Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) design tools to validate designs in Computer Aided Design (CAD) models developed in standard LS-DYNA format.

f. Analyze the mass reduction effects of past and future safety standards to existing and current light duty fleets (e.g. FMVSS and IIHS).

g. Analyze the effect and historical trend of mass reduction on active vehicle safety, maneuverability, and accident avoidance, though computer simulations and physical/engineering based analysis. Quantify effects to traffic fatalities.

h. Conduct design analysis of “smart design” vehicles which optimize mass reduction techniques while maintaining or increasing vehicle functionality and safety.

i. Analyze car-to-car compatibility requirements, both voluntary and mandatory, for the effects on vehicle safety.

j. Analyze and quantify other vehicle and driver behavior characteristics effecting vehicle safety such as, but not limited to, impaired driver, age, weight, sex, time, weather, location, and installed active and passive equipment.

k. Analyze and quantify the mass compounding effects of component and system mass reduction, including powertrain downsizing.

l. Analyze and quantify the mass reduction effects on vehicle functional attributes such as, but not limited to, towing, maneuverability, acceleration, NVH, and durability.

m. Analyze and quantify mass reduction technologies that are not mature or that are currently limited to small volume production vehicles. For each technology, provide details regarding risks associated with mass production vehicles.

n. Analyze and quantify mass reduction opportunities and incremental costs for additional light duty vehicle classes including subcompact, compact, large passenger vehicles, minivans, and small CUV/SUV/trucks, in addition to midsize and large CUV/SUV/trucks.

o. Analyze and quantify incremental costs associated with new mass reduction technologies. The incremental cost estimates shall be comprehensive and include variable cost, non-variable cost, and manufacture investment for tooling, product development, etc.

p. Analyze and quantify the efficiency improvements from “volume based learning” and “time based learning”, as documented in the MY 2012-2016 final rule. The contractor shall investigate the appropriateness of applying cost reductions from time- and volume-based learning, and detail the rate of reduction in cost for future model year vehicles with supporting analysis and studies.

Task 2f. Software Services for the Optimization Model for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases for Automobiles (OMEGA) The contractor shall provide support services for the EPA’s OMEGA model, which is written in C#. The contractor shall develop computer program code for this model, including QA/QC of the code to ensure it functions properly. The contractor shall not be responsible for developing the conceptual algorithms for the model; the EPA will develop the general methodologies, and the contractor shall program them as directed by the EPA.

Task 2g. Vehicle Modeling The contractor shall provide Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit (PSAT) or equivalent whole vehicle modeling services (including building and running models and providing training).

Task 2h. Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Modeling, Analysis, and Testing The contractor shall provide Matlab/Simulink or comparable modeling and hardware-in-the-loop test support for Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), and Electric Vehicle (EV) powertrain modeling and development. The contractor shall also provide analyses and modeling of the impacts on electricity generation from the use of electric vehicles.

Task 2i. Economic Modeling and Analysis The contractor shall provide economic modeling and analysis support. The contractor shall collect data, conduct econometric analyses, develop models for policy simulation purposes, analyze the effects of different policies, and develop economic models that contribute to the cost and benefit analyses of GHG, criteria pollutant, and air toxics standards, as well as distributional impacts, such as employment effects or effects on low-income households. The contractor shall develop robust and defensible analyses including:

(1) Development and support of a model of consumer vehicle choice that can assess the effects of policies on consumer vehicle purchases, including changes in total sales and market shares, and effects on consumer welfare.

(2) Surveys of consumers and focus groups; conjoint analyses and other stated preference methods.

(3) Assessments of models and modeling approaches.

(4) The effects of policies on the national and international economies, including balance of trade and employment.

(5) The impacts and per-unit and aggregate benefits and costs associated with policies; examples include the rebound effect, the effects of increased congestion, the social cost of carbon, and national security impacts.

(6) The effects of policies on specific sectors, industries, socio-demographic groups, or regions, including the potential for intermodal shifts.

(7) Integrated assessment modeling that connects economic and climate impacts.

(8) Effects of policies on consumers, such as the effects of policies on consumer satisfaction with regulated goods, and net benefits to consumers.

(9) Assessing barriers to adoption of fuel-saving technologies.

Task 2j. Test Procedure Development The development of a potential emissions control program also requires the evaluation and development of test procedures to measure GHG and non-GHG emissions for both engine and chassis dynamometers. As an example, the contractor shall evaluate existing test procedures used in the United States and internationally to evaluate GHG emissions. The contractor shall also work with the OTAQ to develop new test procedures and/or test cycles as required. The identification of the appropriate metric(s) to evaluate GHG performance shall also be included in the test procedures evaluations.

Task 2k. Technology Assessment The identification of technologies that reduce GHG emissions for both [light duty/heavy duty (LD/HD) powertrains and vehicles is another key element of an emissions control program. The contractor shall assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of GHG performance, and the costs of technologies available to improve GHG performance. Powertrain related technologies may include, but are not limited to, combustion, air handling system, model based control, waste heat recovery, and after-treatment system, advanced transmission concepts, and total integration of engine and transmission. For vehicles, it could include, but is not limited to, advanced aero devices, low-rolling resistance tires, hybrid technology, electrified technology, and light-weight materials. The contractor shall also assist the OTAQ in assessing the impact of these technologies on non-GHG pollutants.

The contractor shall also assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of technologies for reducing criteria pollutants, toxics, and the unintended consequences of any control measure.

Task 2l. Consumer Acceptance and Market Analysis The contractor shall collect data, conduct analyses, and develop tools to analyze how consumers are responding to light-duty vehicles with improved fuel efficiency and reduced GHG emissions. The contractor shall develop robust and defensible analyses including:

1. Analysis of the results of independent studies on vehicle buyer preferences and attitudes toward fuel economy, as well as other vehicles attributes, such as power, acceleration, utility, towing, etc.

1. Analysis of vehicle sales and market data to assess trends in consumer buying behavior for fuel efficient vehicles

1. Analysis of auto manufacturer marketing strategies (e.g., advertisements in print, online, television, and radio) to sell fuel efficient vehicle features, and assess what impacts various marketing strategies have on vehicle sales and consumers’ attitudes toward fuel efficient technologies and vehicles.

1. Analysis of automobile dealers’ strategies in selling fuel efficient vehicles and specific fuel efficient technologies. Assess how various dealers’ approaches affect consumers’ buying decisions. Develop “best practices” for auto dealers, the auto industry, and others to educate consumers about fuel efficient technologies.

TASK 3: NON-ROAD ENGINES AND EQUIPMENT ANALYSIS

In the future, the EPA OTAQ expects to consider establishing new GHG emission control programs for all types of non-road equipment and vehicles, from handheld string trimmers to large mine trucks. In addition, the EPA OTAQ will require contractor assistance with ongoing assessments of regulated and non-regulated pollutant emissions from the current population of non-road engines and equipment.

Task 3a. Industry Characterization To help develop and properly assess the potential impact to the non-road equipment and engine industries and to the user groups that depend on them, it is necessary to identify the nature and operations of these industries and user groups. To accomplish that task, the contractor shall develop a set of industry characterizations. Separate characterizations may be requested for non-road subsectors (such as agriculture, construction, lawn care) or other useful groupings, consistent with the EPA’s schedule for action in these subsectors or groupings. Characterization activities are likely to include the following:

- descriptions of engine and equipment usage patterns.

- descriptions of engine and equipment manufacturers.

- design and manufacturing practices and cycles for non-road engines and equipment.

- impacts of previously established emissions control programs on manufacturers’ ability to participate in GHG control programs.

- descriptions of equipment and vehicle owners and operators.

- characterization of small businesses that manufacture or operate the engines, equipment, and vehicles, including small farmers.

- other characterization profiles as needed to support the EPA’s activities.

Task 3b. Test Procedure Development The development of a potential emissions control program also requires the evaluation and development of test procedures to measure GHG, criteria pollutants, and air toxics emissions from non-road equipment and engines. As an example, the contractor shall evaluate existing test procedures used in the United States and internationally to evaluate GHG emissions. The contractor shall also work with the OTAQ to develop new test procedures and/or test cycles. The identification of the appropriate metric(s) to evaluate GHG performance of non-road equipment and engines shall also be included in the test procedures evaluations.

Task 3c. Technology Assessment The identification of technologies that reduce GHG emissions from non-road equipment and engines is another key element of an emissions control program. The contractor shall assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of GHG performance, and the costs of technologies available to improve GHG performance of non-road equipment and engines. Such technologies may include integrated approaches, such as jobsite electrification and the switch to electrically-powered equipment, or to central recharging stations for battery-powered equipment at a location. The contractor shall also assist the OTAQ in assessing the impact of these technologies on non-GHG regulated pollutants.

The contractor shall also assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of technologies for reducing criteria pollutants, toxics, and the unintended consequences of any control measure. This work shall include evaluation of control measures being used to comply with the EPA’s non-road Tier 4 standards.

Task 3d. Operational Measures Assessment The identification of practices and technologies that improve operating efficiency of nonroad equipment and engines may play a role in new emissions control programs (no-till farming, for example). The contractor shall assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of a GHG reduction opportunity and the possible drawbacks and costs of such operational measures.

Task 3e. Emissions Inventories To properly assess the benefits of a potential future emissions program, it is necessary to understand the non-road GHG, criteria pollutant, and air toxics emissions inventories. The OTAQ will require assistance from the contractor in modeling these emissions. The contractor shall assist in the development of emissions inventories for the non-road sector, calculation of annual non-road engine and equipment usage, and projection of non-road emissions growth. The contractor shall also calculate the emissions inventory impacts of potential emissions control programs.

TASK 4: MARINE VESSELS ANALYSIS

In the future, the EPA OTAQ will consider new GHG emission control programs for all types of marine engines and vessels, including vessels with recreational, Category 1 (C1), Category 2 (C2), and Category 3 (C3) engines. The EPA OTAQ will also continue the evaluation of additional opportunities for reductions in emissions from these marine engines and vessels. Recreational marine vessels are typically powered by spark-ignited outboard, personal watercraft, or sterndrive/inboard engines. Marine diesel engines are used on a variety of different types of vessels, including small recreational runabouts; fishing boats; tug boats, Great Lakes freighters, and large oceangoing vessels. The marine diesel engines are divided into three categories. C1 represents engines up to 7 liters per cylinder displacement. C2 represents engines from 7 to 30 liters per cylinder displacement. C3 represents engines at or above 30 liters per cylinder displacement.

Task 4a. Industry Characterization To help develop and properly assess the potential impact to the marine industry, it is necessary to identify the nature and daily operations of the affected industry. To accomplish that task, the contractor shall develop an industry characterization. This characterization includes the following: descriptions of the engine and vessel usage patterns; identification of engine and vessel manufacturers, and the integration of such entities; the design and construction process of the engines and vessels; the owners and users of vessels; and the identification of any small business impact.

Task 4b. Test Procedure Development The development of a potential emissions program also requires the evaluation and development of test procedures to evaluate the GHG performance of marine engines and vessels. As an example, the contractor shall evaluate existing test procedures used in the United States and internationally to evaluate GHG emissions and/or fuel efficiency of marine engines and vessels. The contractor shall also work with the OTAQ to develop new test procedures and/or test cycles. The identification of the appropriate metric(s) to evaluate GHG performance of marine engines and vessels shall also be included in the test procedure evaluation, including other pollutants as needed.

Task 4c. Technology Assessment The identification of technologies which reduce GHG emissions from marine engines and vessels is another key element of an emissions program. The contractor shall assist the OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of GHG performance, and the costs of technologies available to improve GHG performance of marine engines and vessels. The technology assessment shall also include development of a baseline engine and/or vessel definition, and the evaluation of those technologies’ impacts on other non-GHG emissions.

The contractor shall also assist OTAQ with the identification and evaluation of technologies for reducing criteria pollutants, toxics, and the unintended consequences of any control measure.

Task 4d. Emissions Inventory Development and Analysis To properly assess the benefits of a potential future emissions program, it is necessary to understand the marine emissions inventory. The OTAQ will require assistance from the contractor in analyzing and modeling GHG, criteria pollutants, and air toxics emissions. The contractor shall assist in the development of emissions inventories for the marine sector, calculation of annual marine engine and vessel usage, and projection of marine emissions growth. The contractor shall also calculate the emissions inventory impact of potential emission reductions due to an emissions control program.

TASK 5: LOCOMOTIVE ACTIVITY and Emissions ANALYSIS In the future, the EPA OTAQ will consider new GHG emission control programs for newly manufactured and remanufactured locomotives. The EPA OTAQ will also continue evaluation of additional opportunities for further reductions in regulated and non-regulated emissions.

Task 5a. Growth Projection The contractor shall help develop and assess future railroad emissions. To accomplish that task, the contractor shall project how railroad activity will change in the future. That characterization includes, but is not limited to, the following: total nationwide freight shipments in ton-miles, total nationwide passenger activity, and the geographic distribution of the activity.

Task 5b. Factors That May Affect Growth The contractor shall analyze factors that may affect growth in railroad activity. The contractor shall characterize factors such as intermodal shifts, capacity limits, and voluntary and regulatory programs that may increase or decrease the rate of growth in rail activity. This characterization may include other factors and shall address the dependencies of all these factors on other inputs.

Task 5c. Rail Electrification and Alternative Fuels The contractor shall analyze the feasibility of increasing the use of electric locomotives, hybrid technologies, and alternative fuels. The contractor shall identify and analyze factors that will encourage the use of these technologies, as well as factors that will discourage their use. The contractor shall also analyze these factors with respect to costs, technological feasibility, geographic limits, and other relevant considerations. The contractor shall also analyze any unintended consequences of these actions or measures.

Task 5d. Emissions Inventory Development and Analysis The contractor shall develop and analyze locomotive GHG, criteria pollutants, and air toxic emissions inventories, and provide computer modeling assistance to assess the benefits of a potential future emissions programs.

Task 5e. Market Analysis The contractor shall analyze the locomotive remanufacturing market to assess the impacts of various regulatory programs. The contractor shall identify and analyze businesses remanufacturing locomotives and businesses supplying parts for remanufacturing. The analysis shall address market share, research costs, and other economic impacts.

TASK 6: AIRCRAFT ANALYSIS

The contractor shall assess technologies, costs, emissions inventories, changes, and any related elements for requirements and/or controls of aircraft GHG emissions, short-lived climate forcing pollutants (SLCPs), criteria pollutants, and air toxics.

Task 6a. Technology Assessment The technological assessment shall include the items below, but it shall also pertain to items that the contractor suggests pursuant to consultation with and approval by the EPA work assignment manager.

Aircraft emissions performance is central to the understanding of the fuel burn and GHG emissions from aircraft. The contractor shall conduct technical feasibility assessments for the near-term (5 years), mid-term (10-15 years), and long-term (20 years or more) of potential improvements in aircraft fuel burn and GHG emissions. Baseline assessments of current aircraft technologies will also be needed. Items to consider in these analyses include the following: new aircraft designs (e.g., blended wing body or next generation narrow and wide body aircraft, aerodynamics (lift to drag ratio), new engine technologies, engine fuel flow or fuel consumption at all flight conditions (engine deck), degradation or deterioration of aircraft/engine performance, and interrelationships with NOx emissions and noise. In addition, the contractor shall analyze control measures for in-service, in-production, and new types of aircrafts. Any other relevant items related to aircraft and aircraft engine performance also should be assessed, including any barriers to adoption of improved technologies.

In addition, the contractor shall evaluate GHG, SLCPs, criteria pollutants, and air toxics emission effects of aircraft, airline, and airport operational measures, which include such measures as improved communication, navigation, surveillance (at altitude or on/near the ground), and advanced air traffic management, gate electrification versus running aircraft auxiliary power units, reduced aircraft engine idling, single-engine taxiing, and reduced runway congestion measures. Operational safety shall also be considered in the assessment of all of these measures.

The contractor shall analyze aircraft emission changes related to the potential use of alternative fuels, including near-, mid-, and long-term effects. Items such as distribution and storage of fuels at airports, and safety information shall be evaluated.

Task 6b. Modeling Aircraft Activity and Emissions Modeling of aircraft emissions shall include the items below, but should also consider items that the contractor suggests pursuant to individual work assignments that may be issued under the contract. The contractor shall perform the modeling necessary to assess air traffic activity to understand the current and projected aircraft GHG, criteria pollutants, and air toxics emissions. Such modeling shall include evaluations of the current and future fleet mix and activity, including domestic and international flights. The contractor shall model near-, mid-, and long-term aircraft emissions, and prepare criteria and GHG emission inventories as requested. Other factors, such as temperature, altitude, wind effects, and operational changes, shall be considered in the modeling of aircraft GHG emissions. At altitude and near/at ground level (above and below 3,000 feet) shall be modeled separately and together. The contractor shall be prepared to conduct or support assessments of the effects of cruise level emissions on local air quality. The contractor shall model the aircraft emissions related to the potential for alternative fuel use, including near-, mid-, and long-term effects. Life cycle analyses for alternative fuels shall also be modeled as part of any such efforts. Modeling shall also include items that the contractor suggests pursuant individual work assignments that may be issued under the contract.

Task 6c. Metric for GHG Standards Currently, the aviation community does not have a metric for setting aircraft GHG requirements or standards.

The contractor shall perform analyses related to evaluating different parameters and thresholds for the development of GHG metrics.

In addition, for potential different control measures which may or may not be market based control measures (e.g., corporate averages for all in-production aircraft), the contractor shall analyze the effects of such measures and how the metric utilized for such control mechanisms or potential standards relate to aircraft GHG emissions.

Task 6d. Manufacturing Process The contractor shall evaluate processes related to the manufacturing of aircraft and aircraft engines to determine if any products can be improved to reduce GHG emissions.

Task 6e. Other Tasks The contractor shall conduct the following:

- analyses and projections of future fleet mixes with respect to fleet size, activity, and aircraft body type; models may be utilized for this task as appropriate.

- analyses and projections of aircraft engine and airframe orders; models may be used/directed as appropriate.

- conduct literature reviews and summaries as appropriate with regard to aircraft emissions, aircraft activity (landing-takeoffs (LTOs), entire flights, and non-LTO flight segments), and operational controls.

- prepare technical reports based on work generated under this contract and present any such content in private or public forums, as appropriate, and in accordance with EPA requirements.

Task 6f. General Aviation The contractor shall provide services such as assessments of technology, fuel quality changes, operational changes, impacts on new production and the current fleet, costs of control and economic impacts, emissions inventory development, and emissions monitoring at airports/airport communities with respect to the impact of reducing emissions from piston and turbine-powered general aviation airplanes.

Furthermore, the contractor shall provide services to the government with respect to lead (Pb) contained in aviation gasoline, especially regarding supply, refining, distribution, and storage impacts at all levels, and impacts on the current fleet of piston-powered general aviation aircraft if the lead content of aviation gasoline is reduced or eliminated. Such analyses shall include fleet characterization assessment, modification costs for airplanes and engines, and operating costs. Finally, the contractor may be tasked to gather and analyze data with respect to operations and airframe/engine operating characteristics, and to develop analyses related to items such as local air quality conventions, test cycles and test procedures, and related items.

TASK 7: ANALYSES - AIR TOXICS, CRITERIA POLLUTANTS, and GHG EMISSIONS The contractor shall provide the EPA with technical support, including the monitoring, analysis, and modeling of environmental and economic conditions, as the Agency seeks to characterize air toxics and vehicle, engine, and equipment emission effects, including effects from criteria pollutants, GHGs, and short-lived climate forcing pollutants, such as black carbon. In meeting such requirements, the OTAQ may require support in areas such as literature search and data analysis, cost and risk analysis, feasibility of emission test procedure options for both regulated and unregulated pollutants, and detailed characterization of highway or nonroad vehicle populations and usage. Support is required in determining the costs, emissions levels, and health and welfare implications of changes in fuel and fuel additive formulations, usage, and distribution for conventional and alternative fuels. The contractor shall perform and report the results of appropriate statistical analyses to check the validity and reliability of quantitative sampling, modeling, and analysis techniques. A high premium is placed on technical accuracy, and on creativity in problem solving and other forms of analysis. Other support that may be required includes an assessment of the availability and effectiveness of emission control programs.

The types of fuels and/or fuel additives which may be considered in the above requirements include virtually all current and future highway and non-highway fuels and fuel additives. These include conventional and reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel, and alternative fuels, such as methanol, ethanol, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), bio-fuels, synthetic fuels, hydrogen and electricity (supplied from batteries or fuel cells), or hybrid vehicles operating on a combination of these fuels along with other energy storage devices. Emissions from non-road fuels may be included in the above requirements (if different from highway fuels), as well as non-road engine oils or other lubricants.

Task 7a. Environmental Analysis, Modeling, and Reporting The contractor shall have access to or develop the capability to perform an analysis of or to model vehicle operating parameters, emissions data, air quality and/or health effects data, and chemical composition data, including:

- using engineering analysis/model(s) to determine GHG and other pollutant emissions from mobile sources. Validate analysis/modeling results through data collection, surveys, model comparisons, etc.

- analyzing regulated and unregulated air toxic emissions; identify and characterize potential vehicle- or fuel-based control mechanisms for such emissions.

- mining data for trends, statistical significance, confounding factors, etc.

- building and operating statistical- and simulation–type predictive models.

- using air quality monitoring and modeling tools to predict outcomes from proposed air quality regulatory options.

- developing models of short and long-term emission trends, individual and population exposures, and health and welfare effects of emissions exposure and any additional assessment work needed to evaluate whether emissions from mobile sources and fuels cause or contribute to air pollution that can reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.

- developing inputs and conducting assessments to evaluate mobile source impacts on children and to evaluate environmental justice, cumulative risk assessment, and impacts on tribes.

- analyzing uncertainty and risk for regulatory options at both a national level and for designated air quality areas.

- assessing non-EPA (academic, commercial, nonprofit, etc.) models and analytical tools to generate results for critical evaluation and product-to-product comparisons.

Furthermore, the contractor shall provide analysis of and technical support for issues surrounding black carbon (BC) from mobile sources. The contractor shall:

- create both current and future, or anticipated, mobile sources BC inventory;

- characterize present level(s) of BC emissions control and technology in mobile sources, including marine vessels, trains, aircraft, and non-road equipment;

- characterize public health benefits of further mobile sources BC control;

- identify areas of additional research and/or regulatory action which could lower mobile sources BC.

Lastly, the contractor shall addresses the environmental impacts of transportation programs, policies, and investments at all levels of government, including:

- developing emissions inventories that identify and quantify the primary anthropogenic sources and sinks of U.S. GHG emissions (and corresponding baselines) from mobile sources.

- examining transportationrelated impacts on natural and human systems, with the objective of improving environmental analysis and informing EPA planning and policy development, including the estimation of emission factors to quantify mobilesource GHG and criteria output, as well as policysensitive models to analyze transportation systems and efficiencies, and forecast travel demand and energy consumption.

Task 7b. Conventional and Alternative Fuel Activities To arrive at an analysis of the effects of conventional and future fuels on GHG emission levels, short-lived climate forcing pollutants, criteria pollutants, and air toxics, the contractor shall perform the tasks set forth below:

- literature searches and summarizations of materials regarding fuels and fuel components, their combustion emissions, and health and environmental effects.

-support the development of inventories of emissions that occur upstream of mobile sources. These inventories include all emissions from all sources involved in the production of fuels used in mobile sources (e.g., feedstock extraction, feedstock production, fuel transport, fuel storage). Accordingly, it may be necessary to carry out tasks including, but not limited to, the following: 1) review available data sources for emission factors of sources included in the inventories (e.g., energy generating units, oil pipelines, biofuel production facilities), 2) acquire emissions data for relevant sources from one or more third parties, 3) provide assistance with the development of a model or model documentation for upstream inventories, and 4) conduct QA/ QC procedures on the data or model used to generate these inventories. Related to item 3 (model development or documentation), work in this area may include developing model code, testing and identifying errors in the model, or other related efforts that generally support generating and documenting a new model.

- modeling or other assessments of exposure to emissions, selection/evaluation of test protocols and/or modeling approaches for assessing the costs, health, welfare, and emission control system components affecting exposures.

- characterize the environmental effects of such emissions, e.g., air chemistry effects, exposure/risk assessment, and effects on emission control systems.

This shall include characterization of the effects in changes in fuel composition on regulated and unregulated emissions.

- modeling the effects of regulatory actions on global warming and ozone formation (both upper and lower atmosphere), including both generalized and local impacts.

- supply or end-use modeling, including supplies of raw materials and/or feedstocks, to determine the impact of regulatory actions on supply, demand, cost, or price elasticities, competition and market shares, and overall costs to society.

Task 7c. Characterizing Economic Impacts from Regulating Air Pollutants The CAA also directs the EPA to consider the economic and competitive impacts of regulations, including costs to small business, small governmental or tribal entities, and to consider ways to minimize the economic impact on such entities. In addition, various executive orders provide requirements for economic analyses to show that the cost of a regulation is justified by its benefits, and that the EPA’s regulations are equitable in their impact on low-income or minority groups.

The contractor shall evaluate the economic impact of regulatory activities on the regulated industry and other affected sectors, small governmental or tribal entities, the public (including low-income and minority communities), and the nation. The primary purpose of such analysis is to describe and quantify the reallocation of society’s resources in response to a regulatory action.

The contractor shall characterize all or portions of the highway and non-road motor vehicle, motor vehicle engine, or motor vehicle fuel industries, or those industries (e.g., engine/component rebuilders) supporting use of such vehicles, equipment, vessels, aircraft, etc.