Performance_Based_Work_Statement_2.pdf

PERFORMANCE-BASED WORK STATEMENT

I. GENERAL INFORMATION

A. Introduction. The USGS provides fire science information to DOI land managers such as BLM and FWS. Simulations of how fuel break treatments affect wildfire fuels and wildfire behavior at large landscapes scales are required by the land managers. Currently, the USGS lacks the ability to simulate wildfire spread over large landscapes that are subject to maintenance of existing fuel breaks and construction of new fuel breaks. USGS requires an external provider to generate a treated fuelscape that can be used for simulation modeling of existing and new fuel breaks and other fuel treatments.

B. Background. The USGS has been assessing fuel break performance, including measuring wildfire fuels on areas where the fuel breaks have been implemented and are being managed by land managers. The USGS can assess changes in fuel loadings across landscapes that have different vegetation/fuel characteristics or treatments. However, the land managers need to know how fire risk at the whole-landscape level will vary under different natural and managed conditions, and the best way to determine this is through simulation modeling. FSim is a comprehensive wildfire occurrence, growth, and suppression simulation system that simulates the growth and behavior of hundreds of thousands of fire events for risk analysis across large land areas using geospatial data on historical fire occurrence, weather, terrain, and fuel conditions. FSim estimates wildfire likelihood and intensity across a large landscape and inherently addresses randomness and uncertainty in its inputs.

FSim provides probabilistic estimates of wildfire likelihood and intensity on an annualized basis making it particularly well suited for quantitative wildfire risk assessment. Effects of large fire suppression on fire duration and size are also simulated. Using FSim for simulating the effects of alternative fuel treatments requires a landscape-wide treated fuelscape as a companion to the current-condition fuelscape. No USGS staff have experience generating large-landscape treated fuelscapes.

C. Scope (state general purpose, objectives, magnitude): The contractor will develop the post-treatment scenario spatial fuels data (treated fuelscape) needed to simulate fire spread in ways that reveal different levels of fire risk as it relates to vegetation change over time in existing and proposed fuel break networks located throughout the Great Basin and surrounding regions. The contractor will guide USGS staff in the use of the treated fuelscape to generate four alternative fuel break configurations with input from subject-matter experts on how variations in key fuel break design elements (e.g., width, type, spatial placement) under historical fire weather settings influence the response of key fire behavior variables [metrics] derived from current-condition FSim outputs, including:

a. fire patterns,

b. annual burn probability,

c. fireline intensity and flame length,

d. area burned and fire sizes,

e. fire environment and fuel break conditions that contribute to fuel breaks being breached by fire

II. WORK REQUIREMENTS

A. Technical Requirements.

1. Phase 1: Contractor will use the existing current-condition fuelscape covering the Great Basin to develop a companion treated fuelscape. The contractor will communicate with USGS and its USFS and BLM research partners to specify details of the treated fuelscape. Contractor will also consult with USGS and its research partners to ensure USGS-designed fuel break configuration scenarios and associated fuel break attributes can later be adequately modeled in FSim. Phase 2: Contractor will consult with the USGS and research partners on the use of the treated fuelscape and current-condition FSim results to generate alternative fuel management scenarios that can later be simulated with FSim.

2. Criteria for acceptance of Product or Service: Compliance entails regular email updates on progress (quarterly or more frequent), provision of fire-spread model outputs, and co-authorship* on a resulting peer-reviewed, scientific publication (*either as lead or co-author).

B. Deliverables.

1. Phase 1: Outline of modeling approaches, detailed objectives and expected outcomes Phase 2: Data relevant to FSim simulations for each fuel break scenario, including: updated geospatial fuels data; FSim inputs, outputs, and relevant intermediate data; calibration spreadsheet or similar summary of adjustments made during calibration; and geospatial data of annual burn probability, fire size, conditional fire intensity level burn probability, mean fireline intensity, conditional flame length for the full wildfire simulation extent. Written professional consultation to help USGS interpret the fire simulation model outputs relative to highly valued resources.

III. SUPPORTING INFORMATION

A. Place of Performance: The contractor is free to conduct the work (all computer-based) at any location of their choosing.

B. Period of Performance: Five years following the date of award.

C. Government Furnished Property (GFP): None.

D. Special Considerations.

1. Key personnel qualifications: Researches on generating treated fuelscapes with the LANDFIRE Total Fuel Change (LFTFC) Toolbar and in generating fuel treatment scenarios using the treated fuelscape and current-condition wildfire hazard and risk results.

2. Resulting data will become property of the USGS