Attachment_B_Scenario-Outbound.pdf

Attachment B

SCENARIO

Disaster Size and the Impact on Outbound Mail Operations

General

The purpose of this document is to provide information about the impact of disaster sizes on the outbound mail operations. This information is based on historical data extracted from several years.

However, it is important to note that the number of disasters and the intensity of disaster activities vary from year to year.

The offeror shall reference this historical scenario before submitting a proposal. The offeror shall address all three assumptions within this scenario in his or her proposal to indicate the technical approach and understanding of work to be performed.

In 2012 there were 16 declared disasters that impacted the outbound mail production. The table below categorizes the historical sizes of the disasters and the frequencies of the sizes.

Estimated Number of

Registrations in a Disaster

Disaster Size Classification

Percentage per year (Based on 2008 historical data.)

Number of Disasters

5k or less Very small 50% 8 5-15k Small 25% 4 15-25k Medium 0% 0 25-100k Large 6% 1 100k or greater Very large 19% 3 Total 100% 16

Background

After a disaster declaration, disaster victims register for assistance either via the web or by phone. Once the applicant registers, FEMA personnel generate a variety of letters to each applicant and load these letters into the Mail Utility print queue. The mail contractor prints and mails the letters to the applicants in accordance with the guidelines of the Statement of Work (SOW).

The significant impact of the disaster occurs for outbound mail within the first 90 days after disaster declaration. It is important to note however, that correspondence from FEMA, continues for months and, in some disasters, years after the declaration.

Although very large disasters are relatively low, multiple disasters can easily reach a volume of greater than 100,000, and may occur in a relatively short period of time. Between August 29, 2012 and October 30, 2012, five disasters were declared. The total impact of these five disasters was 773,079 registrations. These multiple disaster occurrences had a significant impact on outgoing mail volume.

Most typically hurricane season is the most active disaster period of the year, but earthquakes, wildfires and other natural and manmade disasters can occur at any time during the year.

Outbound Mail

There are two general types of letters sent to applicants. The first letter is referred to as the “9069” letter, and is the application letter. Subsequently FEMA mails a variety of other letters to the disaster applicants and these are generally referred to as “Super” letters. Both are discussed below.

9069 letter FEMA provides each applicant that registers an application package. This package consists of a letter referred to as the 9069 and an applicant guide and/or brochure “Help After a Disaster.”

FEMA personnel generate the 9069 letter usually within a week of the disaster declaration. The mail contractor prints the letter, which is typically 16 images (see note) and mails with the “Help After a Disaster” applicant guide and/or brochure to each person that registered for assistance.

Note:

Some disasters impact communities with large Spanish speaking populations. If the state affected so designates, FEMA provides both English and Spanish documentation to each applicant. Bilingual letters contain additional pages. Additionally, the mail contractor, upon direction from FEMA, shall mail either English or Spanish applicant guide and/or brochure with the 9069 letters.

It is important to recognize that the majority of registrations from disaster victims occur during a period of approximately 8 weeks from the date of disaster declaration. The table below reflects the average percentage of registrations by week after a disaster declaration.

Week of the Disaster Percent of Applications Forecasted 1st week 30% 2nd week 21% 3rd week 16% 4th week 11% 5th-8th week 22%

The table below illustrates the impact of a disaster with 15,000 registrations (small disaster) on 9069 outbound letters by week. The ratio of registrations to the number of 9069 letters is one to one. The ratio of registrations/letters to the number of pages that the contractor must print/mail is 1:8 or 16 images.

Note: The calculations below for all scenarios assume 30% of applicants opt for electronic correspondence.

Week of the Disaster Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Number of 9069 letters

Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter) 1st week 30% 4,500 3,150 50,400 2nd week 21% 3,150 2,205 35,280 3rd week 16% 2,400 1,680 26,880 4th week 11% 1,650 1,155 18,480 5th-8th week 22% 3,300 2,310 36,960 Total 100% 15,000 10,500 168,000

This table is representative of a large disaster of 50,000 registrations.

Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Number of 9069 letters

Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter) 1st week 30% 15,000 10,500 168,000 2nd week 21% 10,500 7,350 117,600 3rd week 16% 8,000 5,600 89,600 4th week 11% 5,500 3,850 61,600 5th-8th week 22% 11,000 7,700 123,200 Total 100% 50,000 35,000 560,000

The table below illustrates the impact of a single or multiple disasters with one million registrations on 9069 outbound letters by week. The ratio of registrations to the number of 9069 letters is still one to one.

The ratio of registrations/letters to the number of pages that the contractor must print/mail is still 1:8 or 16 images but the volume is significant.

Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Number of 9069 letters

Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter) 1st week 30% 300,000 210,000 3,360,000 2nd week 21% 210,000 147,000 2,352,000 3rd week 16% 160,000 112,000 1,792,000 4th week 11% 110,000 77,000 1,232,000 5th-8th week 22% 220,000 154,000 2,464,000 Total 100% 1,000,000 700,000 11,200,000

Super Letters Super letter is a general term that applies to all letters other than the initial 9069 letter sent to the applicant. The number of super letters to any one applicant can vary depending on the type of disaster and the specific applicant’s circumstances. However, statistical data indicates that typically FEMA generates three super letters for every one 9069 letter generated. These super letters vary in length from 3 to 8 pages. Super letters are typically generated beginning the fourth through the eleventh week after the disaster.

The table below assumes a disaster of 15,000 registrations and illustrates the timing and volume of both the 9069 and the Super letters by week subsequent to the declaration. Beginning in the 4th week, both 9069s and super letters require printing/mailing.

Note: All calculations below assume 30% of applicants opt for electronic correspondence

Week of the

Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Letters

9069 Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter)

Super Letters

Super Letter images by week (Estimate 6 images per letter)

Total images to print/mail by week

1st week 30% 4,500 3,150 50,400 50,400 2nd week 21% 3,150 2,205 35,280 35,280 3rd week 16% 2,400 1,680 26,880 26,880 4th week 11% 1,650 1,155 18,480 9,450 56,700 75,180 5th-8th week 22% 3,300 2,310 36,960 6,615 39,690 76,650 9th 5,040 30,240 30,240 10th 3,465 20,790 20,790 11th 6,930 41,580 41,580

Total 15,000 10,500 168,000 31,500 189,000 357,000

This table indicates values for a large disaster of 50,000.

Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Letters

9069 Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter)

Super Letters

Super Letter images by week (Estimate 6 images per letter)

Total images to print/mail by week

1st week 30% 15,000 10,500 168,000 168,000 2nd week 21% 10,500 7,350 117,600 117,600 3rd week 16% 8,000 5,600 89,600 89,600 4th week 11% 5,500 3,850 61,600 31,500 189,000 250,600 5th-8th week 22% 11,000 7,700 123,200 22,050 132,300 255,500 9th 16,800 100,800 100,800 10th 11,550 69,300 69,300 11th 23,100 138,600 138,600

Total 50,000 35,000 560,000 105,000 630,000 1,190,000

Below is a reflection of the impact of 1 million registrations on the outbound mail. As mentioned earlier, this could be a single disaster or multiple disasters that occur in a short time frame.

Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Letters

9069 Letter Images by week (estimate 16 images per letter)

Super Letters

Super Letter images by week

(Estimate 6 images per letter)

Total images to print/mail by week

1st week 30% 300,000 210,000 3,360,000 3,360,000 2nd week 21% 210,000 147,000 2,352,000 2,352,000 3rd week 16% 160,000 112,000 1,792,000 1,792,000 4th week 11% 110,000 77,000 1,232,000 630,000 3,780,000 5,012,000 5th-8th week 22% 220,000 154,000 2,464,000 441,000 2,646,000 5,110,000 9th 336,000 2,016,000 2,016,000 10th 231,000 1,386,000 1,386,000 11th 462,000 2,772,000 2,772,000 Total 1,000,000 700,000 11,200,000 2,100,000 12,600,000 23,800,000