FA481417P0050P00005 JA SENTURION Alpha REDACTED Print.pdf

Sole Source (Including Brand Name) Justification - Simplified Procedures for Certain Commercial Items

18 Jun 2019 Page 2 of 4

I. Contracting Activity.

Department of the Air Force, 6th Contracting Squadron, 2610 Pink Flamingo Avenue, MacDill AFB, FL 33621-5000.

II. Nature and/or description of the action being processed.

The Air Force proposes to modify purchase order FA481417P0050 to add SENTURION ALPHA licenses and change SENTURION training to SENTURION ALPHA training.

The purchase order was awarded as a sole source commercial purchase order to SENTURION FORECASTING LLC on the basis of other than full and open competition IAW 10 U.S.C. 2304(c)(1) as implemented by FAR 13.501(a), Special Document Requirements, Sole source (including brand name) acquisitions in support of United States Central Command's/CCJ8 mission.

USCENTCOM's current licenses for SENTURION (SENTURION Legacy) will continue to be maintained throughout option periods 3 and 4 of the current contract. However, SENTURION FORECASTING LLC will not be releasing any more updates for SENTURION Legacy licenses. Therefore, USCENTCOM has a requirement to add the latest product from SENTURION FORECASTING LLC-- SENTURION ALPHA. SENTURION ALPHA will provide faster speed and expanded capabilities.

The total value of the contract is increased by $320,500.00 from $639,916.67 to $960,416.67.

III. Description of supplies/services required to meet agency needs.

CLIN 3003 will add five SENTURION ALPHA software licenses plus updates, maintenance, technical support for the remaining five months of the current option period CLIN 3002 will be updated from "SENTURION training" to "SENTURION ALPHA training" CLIN 4001 will add five SENTURION ALPHA software licenses plus updates, maintenance, technical support CLIN 4002 will change from "SENTURION training" to "SENTURION ALPHA training"

IV. Statutory authority permitting other than full and open competition.

10 U.S.C. 2304(c)(1) as implemented by FAR 13.501(a), Special Document Requirements, Sole source (including brand name) acquisitions.

V. Demonstration that the contractor's unique qualifications or nature of the acquisition requires the use of the authority cited above (applicability of authority).

SENTURION is a predictive strategy or political model that analyzes the behavioral dynamics within local, domestic, and international contexts and predicts how policy positions or actions of competing interests will evolve over time. The underlying methodology relies on agent-based modeling - application of a set of mathematical algorithms against rules that structure a simulation of the behavior of “agents”, individuals and groups that influence behavioral outcomes. Rather than a statistical or probabilistic approach to predictive modeling, SENTURION employs a set of algorithms drawn from game theory, decision theory, spatial bargaining, and microeconomics. There is no other commercial or government technical solution which provides this service. SENTURION is currently being employed for two decision analysis projects.

The software is unique because it combines utility theory, medium voter theory, and risk analysis into one simulation software through simple inputs. The inputs and outputs are unique to this software platform because it integrates stakeholders from various perspectives. The software's ability to map stakeholder landscapes provides clarity in complex environments. The Department of State, White House Staff, and Central Intelligence Agency consistently utilize the software to understand issues across the globe. Additionally, the Department of Defense, especially US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Naval Postgraduate School, and the Naval War College, use this software

Sole Source (Including Brand Name) Justification - Simplified Procedures for Certain Commercial Items

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Additionally, information obtained from a new platform may cause inconsistencies from the findings that The Department of State, White House Staff, and Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of Defense receive from the Senturion platform, causing potential contradictory actions from agency counterparts for planning strategy. Accordingly, SENTURION FORECASTING LLC is the only firm capable of providing the services described in Section III above without the Central Command and CCJ8 experiencing substantial duplication of cost that could not be recovered through competition and unacceptable delays in fulfilling its requirements, as well as inconsistent planning and operations in joint environments.

The manufacturer is the only responsible source, they do not have a reseller network and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirement. The addition of SENTURION ALPHA will allow CCJ8 to meet program requirements.

SENTURION FORECASTING LLC and Acertas-Analytics are sister companies. SENTURION FORECASTING LLC handles all the Government work.

VI. Description of efforts made to ensure that offers are solicited from as many potential sources as practicable.

An RFI was posted to NASA SEWP on 28 July 2020 with responses due on 10 August 2020. An RFI was also posted to beta.sam.gov on 17 August 2020 with responses due on 24 August 2020. Only one company responded to the RFI, but that company did not show that it could provide SENTURION licenses or an equivalent. The company is an information technology firm that specializes in IT services, cabling infrastructure, and electrical contractor. Since SENTURION is only available to the Government through SENTURION FORECASTING LLC, there is no pool of resellers to compete.

VII. Determination by the Contracting Officer that the anticipated cost to the Government will be fair and reasonable.

The Contracting Officer will make a fair and reasonable price determination in accordance with FAR 13.106-3(a)(2) prior to releasing the modification.

VIII. Description of the market research conducted and the results, or a statement of the reasons market research was not conducted.

SENTURION is only sold to US Government customers through SENTURION FORECASTING LLC. It is sold to commercial customers through Acertas-Analytics. An internet search was conducted for "predictive analytics tools" to see if there is an alternative to SENTURION. While there are many predictive products available, they work with various inputs and provide various outputs so it would require a large effort to identify, test, and adopt a new alternative. To put the onus on the vendors, an RFI for SENTURION or equal products was posted to NASA SEWP on 28 July 2020 with responses due on 10 August 2020 and on beta.sam.gov on 17 August 2020 with responses due 24 August 2020. Only one company responded to the RFI and it didn't show that it could provide SENTURION or an equal product. This is consistent with the market research conducted for the initial purchase order -- an RFI was posted to FBO from 19 December 2016 - 18 January 2017 and no viable alternatives were identified then despite receiving information from 3 vendors.

IX. Any other facts supporting the use of Other Than Full and Open Competition.

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X. List of any sources that expressed, in writing, an interest in the acquisition.

XI. A statement of the actions, if any, the agency may take to remove or overcome any barriers to competition before making subsequent acquisitions for the supplies or services required.

USCENTCOM will continue to search the market for viable alternatives to SENTURION that are consistent with all other agencies analysis information.

XII. Certification by the Contracting Officer.

As evidenced by my signature above, I have determined this document to be both accurate and complete to the best of my knowledge and belief.

XIII. Certification by the technical/requirements personnel.

As evidenced by my (our) signature(s) above, I (we) certify that any supporting data contained herein, which is my (our) responsibility, is both accurate and complete.