Draft_Sources_Sought_PWS_1.docx

PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT (PWS)

YAKIMA RIVER AVIAN PREDATION ANALYSIS

APRIL 2023

1.0 INTRODUCTION:

1.1 Columbia Pacific Northwest Interior Region 9

Columbia Cascades Area Office Environmental Management Group Yakima, Washington 98901

The Columbia Cascades Area Office (CCAO) covers areas in the Columbia River Basin within the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. The CCAO Environmental Management Group is responsible for ensuring that all state and federal environmental laws, regulations, and statutes are complied with for Reclamation irrigation projects that operate within this area. This includes completing all permitting and environmental compliance processes with other state, federal, local, and tribal agencies. This work requires an understanding of how the operation of Reclamation’s Yakima Irrigation Project facilities, infrastructure, and water diversions from the Yakima River may impact fish and wildlife species and their habitats. This work includes collection of important information on the biological and habitat needs of fish and wildlife species as well as other data on potential impacts of operations on a variety of species and how to protect the species over time.

2.0 SCOPE:

Recent research indicates that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds is a substantial source of mortality for some salmonid species, populations, and life-stages. Previous research, however, has been limited to predation on juvenile salmonids during smolt out-migration through the mainstem Columbia River, with little or no information on predation effects on juvenile salmonids in the Yakima River or predation on adult salmonids, like predation of adult Sockeye Salmon and Steelhead Trout by American white pelicans.

Reclamation is in need of an avian predation study. As part of this study, in collaboration with researchers from the Yakama Nation (YN), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission (CRITFC), Reclamation would like to estimate where, when, and how many salmonids originating from the Yakima River are being consumed by piscivorous colonial waterbirds over the course of the last decade (2013 – 2022). Retrospective analyses will be utilized that focuses on bird species and colonies that are known to consume fish that have ceremonial, subsistence, and economic value to the YN. In addition to avian predation, salmonids are subject to other, non-avian sources of mortality and determining what proportion of total mortality will be attributed to avian predation which may also be critical for prioritizing management actions. As part of this study, Reclamation proposes to compare and contrast total mortality to mortality due to avian predation in the Yakima River Basin to determine to what degree avian predation limits fish survival. Collectively, results of this study will broaden our understanding of predator-prey interactions and will quantify the effects of avian predation on Yakima River origin salmonids over the course of the last decade. This information is paramount in developing effective salmonid management plans in the Yakima River and elsewhere in the Columbia River basin.

Analyses will be conducted on PIT-tagged salmonids using a recently developed capture-recapture-recovery (CRR) model that utilizes detections of both live and dead tagged fish to jointly estimate cause-specific mortality and survival in space and time (referred to as the Joint Mortality and Survival [JMS] model). Results will provide information on several different but important geographic areas (known as reaches) of the lower Yakima River as well as cumulative or overall predation and survival probabilities of adult sockeye PIT-tagged at Bonneville Dam and adult sockeye and steelhead PIT-tagged in the Yakima River. Information on PIT-tagged fish and avian predators will be collected from other research projects or on-going studies conducted by the USGS, CRITFC, and YN. Analyses will also be conducted on PIT-tagged juvenile Chinook, coho, and steelhead from the Yakima River. Predation analyses on Yakima River salmonids will focus on consumption by American white pelicans that are breeding on Badger Island, located just 27 river kilometers downstream of the mouth of Yakima River. In addition to predation effects by birds breeding on Badger Island, an investigation of predation on smolts by other bird species (Caspian Terns, Double-crested Cormorants, California Gulls, and Great Blue Herons) and colonies during smolt out-migration from the Yakima River to the Pacific Ocean will be conducted, including predation by gulls on Miller Rocks Island in The Dalles Reservoir, and predation by tern and cormorant colonies in the Columbia River estuary.

Data from a ten-year period (2013 – 2022) will be analyzed, to the extent adequate numbers of PIT-tagged fish were released and recovered (live and dead tagged fish) in each year and to the extent adequate recapture and recovery probabilities exists for each group of tagged fish. Analyses are retrospective, so they depend on quality and quantity of data collected as part of other studies that were conducted during 2013 – 2022.

3.0 PERSONNEL QUALIFICATIONS:

Reclamation requires contractors working on this project to have education equivalent to a BS degree in any combination of the following technical specialties: Fisheries Biology, Wildlife Biology, Quantitative Science or Statistics.

The Contractor shall accomplish the assigned work by employing and utilizing qualified personnel with appropriate combinations of education, training, and experience. The Contractor shall match personnel skills to the work with a minimum of under/over employment of resources. The Contractor shall provide the necessary resources and infrastructure to manage, perform, and administer the contract. At a minimum, the contractor shall have the following knowledge, skills, and experience to successfully complete this proposed work:

1. Demonstrated experience with Database and Dataset development

2. Experience with fish and avian species biology and PIT-Tag technology

3. Statistical modeling expertise and development of analyses for fish survival vs. avian predation

4. Experience with reporting and presenting information from past avian predation studies

5. Ability to successfully collaborate with other state, federal, local or tribal agency personnel

4.0 GOVERNMENT-FURNISHED EQUIPMENT (GFE) AND MATERIALS:

Reclamation will not be providing the selected contractor with data or information. However, the contractor will need to collect existing data from other agencies that have been conducting fisheries and avian predation studies in the Yakima and Columbia River basins. These agencies include the Yakama Nation, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission, and the U.S. Geological Survey.

5.0 TASKS

AQL: All raw data sets to include computer modeling data shall be provided in Microsoft Excel or Access formats and shall be submitted within 8 months after contract award.

AQL 1: Provide Draft technical report within 10 months after contract award AQL 2: Provide final technical report within 12 months after contract award

AQL 1: AQL 1: Provide Draft technical report within 10 months after contract award AQL 2: Provide final technical report within 12 months after contract award

6.0 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY (PRS)

AQL 2: Provide final technical report within 12 months after contract award COR Assessment

AQL 1: AQL 1: Provide Draft technical report within 10 months after contract award AQL 2: Provide final technical report within 12 months after contract award COR Assessment

7.0 DELIVERABLES:

Results of the study analysis should be summarized in a draft and final technical report to document study findings. All raw data and datasets (capture-recapture-recovery) used in each analysis need to be provided to the funding agency and collaborators. Methods provided in the technical report(s) would include all formulas and prior assumptions used in Bayesian models and must fully describe methods that would allow others to independently replicate study results.

7.1 Deliverable #1 (Provide all raw data and datasets): .All raw data compiled from the retrospective analysis (2013 – 2022) of Yakima and Columbia River PIT-tags must be provided to Reclamation in either Microsoft Excel or Access file formats. All computer modeling data using MS Excel or Access file formats should also be included.

7.2 Deliverable #2 (Draft Technical Report): .A complete draft technical report should be provided to the Reclamation COR and collaborating agencies (YN, USGS, CRITFC) for this project on February 1, 2024 for review and comment.

7.3 Deliverable #3 (Final Technical Report): A complete final technical report that incorporates Reclamation COR and collaborating agency reviews and comments should be provided to Reclamation be the end date of this contracting action (March 31, 2024).

7.4 Deliverable Table: