A04_0040452950_SOW.docx

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cornell Lab of Ornithology Integrating eBird Relative Abundance Data with Population Size Data to Produce Spatially Explicit Estimates of Eagle Density

1. GENERAL

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is the lead federal agency tasked to manage and conserve bald and golden eagles. The FWS currently relies on regional estimates of population size in its eagle management program. Scaling down these regional estimates would allow more precise management of eagle populations, reducing uncertainty when assessing the local effects of permits. The Laboratory of Ornithology at Cornell University manages the citizen-science driven eBird program, which accumulates tremendous volumes of information on bird occurrence throughout the United States and elsewhere. Cornell University scientists have developed rigorous models to generate relative abundance information from eBird data. The FWS and Cornell University have informally explored how eBird data, when integrated with other information on eagle use, can provide insights on the effects of land use activities on eagles at a finer scale. Given these positive initial results, the FWS intends to collaborate with the Cornell University Laboratory of Ornithology to formally integrate the FWS’s regional eagle population size estimates with eBird Status and Trend (S&T) relative abundance information to obtain predictions of eagle density at the 2.8 km2 scale. In addition to the value of this approach in eagle permitting, it will also improve the FWS’s ability to estimate eagle population size in areas where population surveys are impractical.

2. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose of this contract is to provide funds to Cornell University to develop an approach to formally integrate the FWS’s bald and golden eagle regional population size estimates with eBird data at the 2.8 km2 scale. The initial focus will be on bald eagles. If successful, the FWS will fund a second year to extend the approach to golden eagles, explore the utility of eBird data in predicting changes in density seasonally, and the use of eBird data in modeling eagle fatality rates at wind energy facilities. The eBird S&T estimates for bald and golden eagles extend throughout the conterminous US. The basic question that will be explored under this contract is, given the FWS’s estimates of mean breeding season density for a particular region, can the ratio of the FWS density estimates to the mean eBird relative abundance estimates, generalized across the corresponding region, be used as a region-specific adjustment factor to scale eBird relative abundance to a density or population estimate?

3. SERVICES TO BE PROVIDED

Base Year Tasks

a. Upon being provided with data from the FWS on regional breeding-season bald eagle population size and density, Cornell University will attempt to develop adjustment factors that will re-scale eBird S&T estimates at the 2.8 km2 scale to eagle density. This task will include experimentation to determine the robustness and variation of the adjustment factors overall, and among regions of different sizes. The product of this task will be immediately useful to the FWS in predicting the effects of take permits issued by the FWS on local populations of bald eagles.

b. Cornell University will also explore how eBird S&T estimates and adjusted estimates relate to the FWS’s dual-frame aerial bald eagle survey estimates of the number of occupied nesting territories, and how that relationship may be used to make statistical inferences to areas not sampled as part of the survey.

c. In consultation with FWS, Cornell University will use the eBird S&T data to estimate either: (1) breeding season bald eagle population size, or (2) the number of occupied bald eagle nesting territories, in low-density bald eagle population strata for which no FWS estimates or nest-count data are available. The product of this exercise will be at the state/Bird Conservation Region level, presumably (but not necessarily) scaled-up from estimates at the 2.8 km2 scale.

d. Cornell University will assist FWS with the inclusion of eBird relative abundance data into the FWS’s integrated population modeling (IPM) effort for bald eagles. One approach that will be explored will be to integrate the eBird relative abundance data with the FWS’s count data to inform the count component of the IPM. The objective of this task is to allow the population estimates from the joint analysis of eBird relative abundance and FWS’s population count data to inform the IPM, rather than perform a post-hoc adjustment with the eBird data. The product of tasks a - c will be immediately useful to the FWS in generating an estimate of bald eagle population size for the coterminous U.S. for 2018/19.

4. GOVERNMENT-FURNISHED MATERIALS/SERVICES

The FWS will provide data on regional bald and golden eagle population size and density for tasks a - d, and will be available for frequent coordination and interaction.

5. SUMMARY OF MILESTONE DUE DATES

Tasks a - b will be completed within 10 months of the date of execution of this contract. Tasks c - d will be completed within 12 months of the date of execution of this contract.

These dates may be modified as specified under #7 below.

6. DELIVERABLES

Cornell University will provide a short summary report on results at the end of the first year for Tasks a – d. Cornell University will provide any relevant computer code (preferably compatible with Program R) that the FWS would need to incorporate the results into its regulatory process. The FWS is required under the Information Quality Act to undertake peer review of any influential scientific information it uses in decision making; peer review is typically accomplished by publishing influential scientific works in credible scientific journals. Cornell University and the FWS will collaborate on any such scientific publications that may result from this work.

7. PROJECT COMPLETION/DELIVERY SCHEDULE

Work on Tasks a – d will be initiated upon approval of this contract, and completed within 12 months. The summary report for these tasks is due 3 months later, 15 months after the date of approval of this contract. Modifications to due dates, deliverables, or the delivery schedule may be made, but require mutual agreement by Cornell University and FWS.

8. ADDRESS FOR DELIVERABLES

All deliverables shall be submitted to the following addresses within the specified timeframes.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Attention: Dr. Brian Millsap National Raptor Program Division of Migratory Bird Management 2105 Osuna Rd. NE Albuquerque, NM 87113-1001

9. TRAVEL EXPENSES

Travel expenses for principal investigators for up to two meetings with FWS per year, one in Falls Church, Virginia, and one in Albuquerque, NM, will be allowed.

10. PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

This period of performance of this order shall begin upon contract approval in 2019, and extend though 15 months after the date of approval of the contract.

11. LOCATION OF WORK

Work will be conducted throughout the United States.

12. TECHNICAL LIAISON

The Technical Point of Contact for this task order is:

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Attention: Dr. Brian Millsap National Raptor Program Division of Migratory Bird Management 2105 Osuna Rd. NE Albuquerque, NM 87113-1001