Statement_of_Work_Hydrologist_GS_14.pdf

Statement of Work

For

Statistical Modeling - Review and Modernization

We would like to utilize a contractor to fulfill obligations for the NWCC Statistical Modeling initiative to deliver a thorough water supply forecasting review and recommendations for modernization. Duties of the contractor would be to assist in all aspects of the project outline as follows.

Project background:

The USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center (NWCC) is the technical lead for the Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting (SSWSF) Program. Using Snow Survey data and other predictors, seasonal streamflow volume forecasts are produced for more than 700 points across twelve western States and Alaska. A primary function of the Water and Climate Services branch within NWCC is to create, maintain and operationally execute the statistical water supply forecasting models that are used to produce the streamflow predictions.

The models in use today are based on operational statistical forecast techniques that were implemented over 20 years ago. The forecast system requires review for relevance.

Investigations into current applied research and advanced scientific methods are needed to keep the NRCS forecasting program germane and valuable.

A state-of-the-industry examination of modeling techniques will guide development of requirements to improve the skill and functionality of the existing NRCS statistical modeling framework, ultimately refining forecast accuracy. This timely upgrade is in conjunction with the development of plans for a new forecasting tool, replacing a “prototype” that is no longer compatible or financially feasible with contemporary applications.

Project description:

The individual filling this position will provide technical, scientific evaluations, applying professional expertise, resulting in recommendations that will affect the future direction of statistical water supply forecasting for the SSWSF Program in the Western U.S. and Alaska. In brief, this position will complete an independent assessment of the current forecast modeling system and suggest improved modeling procedures that fit within the NWCC framework. More fully, this will be a two-phase project consisting of an in-depth survey of the current system and comparative available tools and then application of model selection measures leading to recommendations for algorithms that could be executed in the operational forecast system.

Using specialized knowledge in the field, this position also will work towards improving NWCC forecast results by investigating various areas for progress, including, but not limited to:

optimization in calibration, addressing violations of normality assumptions in linear regression, the use of teleconnection indices, and accommodations for climate change. Details of forecast production also will be examined including the application of standard operating procedures and the dispersal of forecasts and forecast-related information.

The work will be frequently coordinated, reviewed, and approved by NWCC staff to ensure that it conforms to the priorities and requirements of the NWCC. The deliverable will be a comprehensive report of recommendations for enhancements to the NWCC modeling system.

Position requirements:

This position requires extensive experience in operations and research in simulation and statistical hydrologic modeling, model optimization, and statistical analyses. Previous background in project management related to scientific endeavors fundamental for understanding viable, workable recommendations and solutions. Preferred past experience with governmental organizations. Ability to communicate complex technical information required.

The work requires occasional teleconferences and in-person meetings with NWCC staff.

We recommend that a contractor be retained for approximately 1000 hours of time to advance the statistical modeling framework review and modernization effort. The recommended rate would be equal to a GS14 Step 1. The level of expertise required for this analysis work is beyond what the NWCC has on staff.

About $15,000.00 will be used to cover travel expenses at the GSA per diem rate based on locality.

*Implementation of this contract is subject to the requirement of the Anti-Deficiency Act and the availability of appropriated funds. Nothing in this contract will be construed by the parties to require the obligation, appropriation or expenditure of any fund from the US Treasury.