SOW.pdf

SoW: Developing a Physics-Informed Particle Impact Ignition Model for High-Pressure Oxidizing Environments – Year 3

1. Objective/Requirements

The overall scope of the assessment is to develop an experimentally calibrated tool to predict a priori whether a given system is susceptible to catastrophic failures via particle impact (PI) based on expected operating conditions (gas temperature, pressure, concentration, flow rate), materials (composition, properties, particle features), and component geometry. This tool will accelerate design of new components, assessments of existing hardware, and dispositioning of anomalies. Calibration and validation of the model will require PI testing with in situ diagnostics and complementary simulations on subset of key engineering materials (IN718, M400, 316L, 6061, Ti64, Zr). The project outcome will be a predictive tool for assessing the risk of PI for idealized geometries (spherical particles) in realistic environments.

MIT will support all three of the assessment tasks.

Task 1: Develop a deterministic reduced order model of particle impact ignition that incorporates experimental and modeling findings from Years 1-2.

• Will integrate the computational and experimental results from the preceding two (2) years into a deterministic reduced order model of particle ignition and kindling.

• The model will consider key variables, including: strike velocity, particle material, particle diameter, target material, angle of incidence, oxygen pressure, substrate temperature.

Task 2: Extend deterministic model of particle impact ignition to include probabilistic effects.

• The model developed in Task 1 will be adapted to consider probabilistic effects, including distributions in particle size, particle velocity, incidence angle.

• A sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine how these different populations effect the probability of ignition.

• The outputs of the model will be compatible with particle tracking simulation tools, e.g., as a look-up table to assess the probability of particle ignition and subsequent kindling.

Task 3: Validate model predictions through comparison with experimental measurements and observations.

• Will advise on testing at NASA WSTF in support of modeling activities.

• A major component will be testing of oblique impacts and impacts in tube bends, and assessment of multiphase PII

2. Characteristics, Scope, and Specs

Shall perform the following duties:

o Provide general technical input during all team meetings o Provide input on particle impact failure modes and root causes o Review available test data o Provide input on test materials and methods to anchor models o Develop predictive models o Review and provide inputs to assessment documentation including the

Stakeholder Briefing and Final Report.

o Visit test facility(ies) to support test design and verification (maximum of one trip each per year to either WSTF, LaRC, or MSFC) o Participate in weekly team meetings (1-2 hours per week) o Participate in Technical Interchange Meetings (1-2 days) o Participate in Stakeholder Briefing (1-2 hours)

3. Restrictions on Publishing

Can publish data related to this assessment with the exception of proprietary data related to proprietary particle impact data and information that is restricted by International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and/or Export Administration Regulations (EAR).

All documentation (e.g. manuscripts, presentations, etc.) resulting from this effort shall be reviewed (within 60 days of submission) and approved for the presence of confidential or proprietary material prior to publication.

4. Period of Performance

Work shall be performed from authority to proceed through February 2026.

5. Schedule Task Description Start End

1.1 Deterministic reduced order model

1.1.1 Integration of FEA + experimental results 2/25/2025 7/15/2025

1.1.2 Development of reduced order model 7/15/2025 9/15/2025

2.1 Probabilistic model definition

2.1.1 Integration of particle size/velocity distributions 9/16/2025 12/1/2025

2.1.2 Development of ignition probability look up tables 12/1/2025 1/24/2026

3.1 Validation through PII experiments

3.1.1 Comparison between predictions and experiments 9/15/2025 1/24/2026

6. Project Milestones and Deliverables

# Milestone Description Deliverables Date 1 Technical Interchange Meeting #3 (WSTF) Overview of model status 6/16/2025 2 Mid-point Review (MIT) Review MIT/WSTF test progress 8/15/2025 3 Complete Task 1.1 Reporting on deterministic model 9/15/2025 4 Complete Task 2.1 Reporting on probabilistic model 1/24/2026 5 Complete Task 3.1.1 Report on analysis of multi-phase PI sims 1/24/2026 6 Technical Interchange Meeting #2 (MIT) Report on experimental results/plan integrated model/recommendations for work in option years

8/15/2025

7 Annual report 1. Stakeholder Briefing Slides

2. Annual report inputs

2/20/2026

Test Data Reports shall include test conditions, configurations, and key results

Mid-point Review Slides shall be provided in powerpoint format per the NESC Assessment team template (to be provided by NASA). The slides shall include an update on progress of the models and usage plan and shall provide an overview of the accomplishments to-date, a description of remaining activities, and an estimated progress at completion of the effort.

Model drafts shall be described and/or demonstrated to the assessment team via Microsoft Teams in such a format as to be understood and reviewed by the NESC Assessment Team.

A Usage Plan draft shall be sent, in Microsoft Word format, to all NESC Assessment Team members for review.

Final Models shall be provided to the NESC Assessment Team for review and will be considered “Approved” with concurrence.

The Stakeholder Briefing is the final presentation for the work conducted under this assessment.

An overview of the models and usage plan shall be provided in powerpoint per the NESC Stakeholder Briefing template (to be provided by NASA) for inclusion in the compiled Stakeholder Briefing package.

The NESC Final Report is a word document intended to capture the details of an NESC Assessment. Final Reports Inputs shall be provided, in Microsoft Word per the NESC Final Report template (to be provided by NASA). Specific content of the report is to be determined during the assessment activity. At a minimum, inputs shall include details of the approach taken for each model, the results of the model, and a detailed description of model capabilities.