21QB057 SOO-Optimized Local NWP Model.pdf

STATEMENT OF OBJECTIVES

FOR

DESIGN OPTIMIZED LOCAL NUMERCAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FOR

CAPECANAVERAL AIR FORCE STATION/KENNEDY SPACE CENTER

(Version 25 Jan 21)

1. Project Description: Design an optimized Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The optimization shall be for locally developing thunderstorms during the convective season (typically late May-mid Sep). These locally developing thunderstorms often occur under easterly flow and are caused by interaction of the sea breeze front from the Atlantic Ocean, and the river breeze fronts from the Indian River and Banana River.

There are many factors competing factors that are important to the performance of a local NWP model. This project would find the optimal mutually interacting combination of the factors important to computer forecast model performance. Some of those factors are as follows.

- Grid spacing -- The grid spacing may differ depending if frequent high resolution water temperatures from the Indian River and Banana River are available or not available -- A project optimizing the inner grid spacing over CCAFS/KSC is already in-progress. However, further refinement will likely be needed to allow for the interaction with the other factors. For example, trading some smaller grid spacing for additional ensemble members may be beneficial.

- Ensemble forecasting configuration -- Number of ensemble members

--- May vary throughout the production cycle -- How to best generate the ensemble members

--- Vary the initial conditions --- Use the deterministic forecast and/or a few ensemble members from the previous forecast cycle both to initialize the current model and as current ensemble members ---- E.g., the 3-hr forecast from 3-hours ago can initialize the current model to generate a new ensemble member ---- E.g., the 4-hr forecast from 3-hours ago can be a current 1-hr ensemble member

--- Use forecasts from other models to initialize the current model and/or as an ensemble member --- Use different physical parameterizations

- Production cycle -- Frequency of forecast intervals and number of ensemble members. For example, a 3-hr forecast every 0.5-hours with 35 ensemble members, a 6-hr forecast every 1-hour with 30 ensemble members, a 12-hr forecast every 2-hours with 25 ensemble members, a 24-hour forecast every 4-hours with 20 ensemble members, and a 36-hour forecast every 8-hours with 15 ensemble members

- Assimilation of local data -- Weather radar to detect low-level boundaries and where thunderstorms will form; especially important at shorter forecast intervals -- Total lightning to initialize updrafts in thunderstorms -- Weather towers to initialize local wind flows and convergence patterns

- Water temperature for the Indian River and the Banana River -- Important to model the river breeze fronts and subsequent locally developing thunderstorms -- What horizontal resolution is required?

-- What temporal resolution is required?

-- How will the water temperatures of the Indian River and Banana River be measured? From environmental satellites?

- Many of these answers are nonlinear and dependent on each other so finding the optimized values will be challenging -- For example, if the water temperatures of the Indian River and Banana River cannot be measured adequately, that may lead to a larger grid spacing being optimal, which in turn would allow more computer resources to generate more ensemble members.

- Provide advice on other factors that need to be included and not listed here

Period Of Performance: Starts on contract award (likely late FY21) and extends for 3 years (likely end of FY24).

2. Deliverables:

a. Written report documenting the development process and results.

b. Briefing of the development process and results to the 45 WS.

c. Interim status report every quarter.

3. Point of Contact: William Roeder, 45 WS/WXT, william.roeder@us.af.mil, (321) 853-8410, (321) 453-1870 (telework)

4. References:

Shafer, J. A., and L. R. Watson, 2015: Real-time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-resolution

Model Implementation and Verification, NASA Contractor Report NASA/CR-2014-218474, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 34 pp., Jan 15 [https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/real-time-local-WRF.pdf]

Watson, L. R., 2014: Range-specific High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup: Data Assimilation, NASA Contractor Report NASA/CR-2014-218439, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 34 pp., Sep 14 [https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/range-specific-hi-res-DA-model-setup.pdf https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/range-specific-hi-res-model-setup.pdf]

Watson, L. R., 2014: Range-specific High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup, NASA Contractor Report NASA/CR-2013- 217911, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 44 pp., Jan 13 [https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/range-specific-hi-res-model-setup.pdf] mailto:illiam.roeder@us.af.mil